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H. Behrendt , M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl

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GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne. Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface waters of the Elbe catchment. H. Behrendt , M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Folie 1Water Quality
H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl
GLOWA-Elbe
GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne
Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface waters of the Elbe catchment
Tasks of the Working Package
Results of Phase I
Concept of Phase II
Regional actors, decision bodies
Global
Change
Management-
options
Impact-
analysis
Evaluation
for scenario calcula-tions of possible changes of nutrient concentrations and ecological state in the Elbe:
Precipitation Temperature
R
A
U
M
I
S
socio-economic development and
environmental targets (e.g.WFD)
Ecological state of the water bodies of the Elbe and coastal zone
Water Quality
Results phase I:
Establishment of a harmonized database for the modeling of nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment
Begin of cooperation with Czech institutions (e.g. boundaries of Czech subcatchments, unified soil loss map, tile drained areas, statistical data)
Water Quality
Estimation of the nutrient emissions into the total Elbe catchment:
Applicability of the model for areas outside Germany
Estimation of nutrient emissions for 184 subcatchments in the Elbe
Model calculations for different time periods in the past
Long term changes of P-concentrations at Zollenspieker
Diffuse P emissions
Changes of nutrient emissions due to climate
Use of precipitation and discharges of WATERGAP 4 for two different climate models
Depending on the used climate model the N emissions can increase or decrease up to 15%
Scenario calculations on regional changes of discharge and nitrogen emissions for 2025
Water Quality
Changes of nutrient emissions due to changes of global climate and regional human activities
The socio-economic changes in the past influenced strongly the nitrogen emissions
The changes due to climate changes are probably low
Water Quality
Interactions between agricultural activities and nitrogen emissions
Only the introduction of a strong N-tax leads to a substantial reduction of N-emissions from agricultural areas.
The maximum potential for the reduction of N-emissions is about 1/3 compared to 1999
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Costs
Find solutions which have large ecological effects with a optimum of costs
Nutrient loads
Human activities
Climate changes
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Linkage between nutrient loads and ecological state of the river
Classification of phytoplankton in rivers
Tool for the modeling:
Classes and linkage between nitrogen/phosphorus and ecological state of the coastal zone?
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Activities in urban area
central versus decentral
Measure Y
Costs (€/a)
- Scenarios
random condition N / P reduction targetsl
Water Quality
Conclusions
A harmonized database for the total Elbe for the diffuse sources of nutrient entries exists. An enlargement for point sources is needed for the calculation of individual measures.
Average changes of climate are compared to human activities of minor importance for the nutrient emissions. But what is the sensitivity of biological indicators and which changes can be expected for extreme changes?
Beside the emissions the retention processes determine the nutrient concentrations and ecological state of the water bodies. Measures for changes of retention have to be studied especially for lakes and wetlands.
The combination of the model MONERIS with the models RAUMIS and SWIM is realised for the study of agricultural and climate influences on the nutrient emissions and loads.
This set of models have to be enlarged by bio-economic and ecosystem models to estimate the costs of different ecological states of the water bodies
Water Quality
Thank You
of 15/15
Water Quality H. Behrendt, M. Grossmann, H. Gömann, U. Mischke, A. Schöll, J. Steidl GLOWA-Elbe GLOWA Status conference 19 May 2005 Cologne Linkages of quantification tools for the estimation of costs – ecological state relationships in the surface waters of the Elbe catchment Tasks of the Working Package Results of Phase I Concept of Phase II Conclusions
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