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transcript
– 30 March 2016, Zürich –
Gürkan Kumbaroğlu, IAEE President
SAEE Kolloquium
The Dynamic Energy Landscape: Geopolitical Implications of the Changing
Energy Economy
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2015
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information Administration, October 2015
US Net Energy Imports
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information Administration, April 2015
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information
Administration, October 2015
The United States is ranked
second globally after Russia in
shale oil resources and is
ranked fourth globally after
China, Argentina and Algeria in
shale gas resources.
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources
Data Source: US Energy Information Administration
Source: US Energy Information Administration EIA
Crude Oil Prices
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Production freeze agreement by Russia and Saudi Arabia
Source:
Forbes, 7 March 2016
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information Administration EIA
Natural Gas Prices
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Natural Gas Intel NGI
Recent Henry Hub Prices
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information Administration EIA
Natural Gas Prices Worldwide
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Volume
(bcm p.a.) Signed End
Algeria (LNG) 4.4 1988 2024
Nigeria (LNG) 1.3 1995 2021
Iran 9.6 1996 2026
Rus. Fed. (Black Sea) 16 1997 2025
Rus. Fed. (West) 4 1998 2021
Azerbaijan (Phase-I) 6.6 2001 2021
Geopolitical Implications: The Case of Turkey
Over the last 10 years gas consumption doubled in Turkey
Turkey is Gazprom's second largest sales market behind Germany
Long-term agreements unfavourable for Turkey
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Turkish Stream
2020 : 63 bcm
(Dec. 2014)
2020 : 32 bcm
(Oct. 2015)
Offshore : 910 km
TR onshore: 180 km
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
• Turkish authorities clear permits for only one section of the TS pipeline project,
negotiating on discount for existing long-term contract deliveries. (June 22, 2015)
• Negotiations between Russia and Turkey on the Turkish Stream pipeline project have
been suspended, following disagreement over pricing and permit allocations. (July 30,
2015)
• Political uncertainty in Turkey and elections slow down communication
• Russia sends special forces into Syria (October 5, 2015)
• TS capacity reduced to 32 bcm (October 6, 2015)
• Turkey takes Russia to arbitration over gas price dispute. (October 27, 2015)
• Downing of Russian airplane (24 November 2015)
• Talks suspended (3 December 2015)
Turkish Stream: Challenges to Overcome
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Capacity: 55 bcm
Does it conform to EU’s Third Energy Package ?
Nord Stream II
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
• President of the European Council, Donald Tusk: Nord Stream II is not in the
EU’s interests
• Russian President Vladimir Putin orders withdrawal of Russian troops from
Syria (14 March 2016)
• Eight EU governments sign letter objecting to Nord Stream II (16 March 2016)
• Gazprom Board Member Aksyutin: The timing of the project will be determined
after the normalization of Russian-Turkish relations and signing of an
intergovernmental agreement (18 March 2016)
Revitalization of Turkish Stream ?
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
SCP : 691 km
TANAP : 1841 km
TAP
onshore : 765 km
offshore : 105 km
The SCP / TANAP / TAP Project
TANAP
2018: 16 bcm
2023: 23bcm
2026: 31bcm
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Iran after Disembargo
Comeback of NABUCCO ?
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Prospects for supply from
Iraq and Syria ?
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Iraq is second-leading contributor to global liquids supply growth in 2015
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: US Energy Information Administration EIA
Short-term Energy Outlook Feb 2016
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Oil&Gas 360
OPEC report: Iraq has more than
150 billion barrels of proved
reserves and more than 300 billion
barrels of unproved reserves
World’s 2nd largest oil
country after Saudi Arabia
(5th on proven reserve ranking)
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Middle East Research Institute MERI
50 billion barrels of proved
reserves and 80 billion
barrels of unproved reserves
8-10 trillion cubic meters of
natural gas reserves
World’s 8th largest oil and
gas reserves
Northern Iraq
EUROPEAN COMMISSION JOINT STATEMENT
Malta, 11 July 2014
Security of gas supply:
the role of gas developments in the
Mediterranean region
The European Commission
recommended developing a
Mediterranean gas hub as part of
efforts to improve the EU's energy
security by diversifying gas routes and
suppliers.
Mediterranean gas - Another corridor?
122 tcf trr acc to USGS
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
If sufficient volumes are attained, the pipeline option offers economies of
scale and lower cost
Turkey offers the only onshore pipeline route option for Med gas
Challenge: regional conflicts, no stability in the Middle East
Mediterranean gas
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Albania, Bosnia
Herzegovina, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Montenegro,
Serbia
Non-EU Eastern Europe
high-cost countries
Southeastern Europe
Southern Corridor Needed
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
CESEC Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe Gas
Connectivity – A European Commission initiative
Aim: to build a single internal energy market, in which energy flows
freely and in which prices are affordable, without any fragmentation
of Europe.
July 10, 2015 – Thirteen countries from Central Eastern Europe (CEE) and
Southеastern Europe (SEE) sign a MoU on creating an integrated gas market
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
CESEC priority projects:
Trans-Adriatic Pipeline
Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria
Interconnector Bulgaria-Serbia
Bulgaria & Romania System Reinforcement
LNG terminal in Croatia and evacuation system towards Hungary
On-going discussions between Ministries, National Regulatory Authorities
and TSOs in Bulgaria and Greece with the stated intention to sign an
interconnection agreement with the objective of enabling reverse flows from
Greece to Bulgaria.
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
A Gas Hub at the Turkish-Greek Border
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Turkish-Greek Cooperation
• The Greek/Turkish border emerges as a natural gas hub location
where
diversification and security of supply is ensured
physical trading takes place
gas-to-gas competition takes place
a reference price of gas gets established
• Energy policy decisions should be depolitized and driven by energy
economics
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Algeria – the world’s seventh largest gas producer: pipelines to
Spain and Italy underutilized
Western Europe: Increased supply from North Africa ?
Political
concern,
terrorist attack
on gas facilities
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015
What’s coming up ?
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC
Existing North American LNG Import/Export Terminals
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC
Approved North American LNG Import/Export Terminals
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FERC
Proposed North American LNG Export Terminals
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
9.43
Bcfd
17.69
Bcfd
Existing capacity : 4.16 Bcfd
Under construction: 0.82 Bcfd (2017)
3.83 Bcfd (2018)
1.80 Bcfd (2019)
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
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US Natural Gas Pipeline Exports (MMcf)
Canada Mexico
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US LNG Exports by Truck (MMcf)
Canada Mexico
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US LNG Exports by Vessel (MMcf)
Japan Taiwan
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US LNG Re-Exports (MMcf)
Brazil Chile China Egypt
India Japan Mexico Portugal
Russia South Korea Spain Turkey
UK
Data Source: US Energy Information Administration EIA
(from a plant in Kenai, Alaska)
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
37
Spain and Portugal account for about 45% of all LNG imports into Europe
LNGPipeline links to RoE
underdeveloped
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
Aim: developing a natural gas hub in the Iberian Peninsula
In May 2013, Iberian Gas Hub started to provide brokering services in
the OTC natural gas and LNG markets in Spain and Portugal.
Project officially launched in March 2011 with the creation of the
Sociedad Promotora Bilbao Gas Hub, S.L (now Sociedad Bilbao Gas
Hub, S.A.).
Purpose: carry out activities aimed at the promotion of market, logistic
and financial services required to facilitate natural gas and LNG
transactions.
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
US shale revolution: shifting geopolitics of energy in Europe and Asia
Increased shale gas production in the US affects geopolitics
worldwide
Iberian Peninsula: a prospective hub for shale gas from US
Growing importance of
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
East and West ends of Europe, Turkey and Iberia emerge as strategically
important locations as European gas hubs
The Dynamic Energy Landscape
IAEE Headquarters28790 Chagrin Blvd., Suite 350Cleveland, OH 44122 USA
Tel 1-216-464-5365Fax 1-216-464-2737iaee@iaee.org
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