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Driving the Future of Mobility BofAML Global Industrials Conference 2018
Wolfgang Schaefer – CFO
Ticker: CONADR-Ticker: CTTAYTwitter: @Continental_IRhttp://www.continental-ir.com
Agenda
2
Electrification4 12
Corporation Highlights 2017 and Outlook 20181 3
Automotive Trends2 7
Key Enabler: Digitalization3 9
Automated Driving5 15
BofAML Global Industrials Conference 2018March 20-21, 2018
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ContiTech – Smart Solutions beyond Rubber8 25
Holistic Connectivity6 19
Tires: No Disruption but Evolution7 22
Continental Strategy – Outlook 2020 and Beyond9 27
› Sales up by 8.5% to €44.0 bn ; organic sales growth at 8.1%; FX negative at €435 mn
› Adj. EBIT 1 up by 10.1% to €4.7 bn ; adj. EBIT1 margin at 10.9% (PPA2 -€171 mn and special effects -€14 mn)
› NIAT3 amounted to €3.0 bn, up by 6.5%
› Free cash flow amounted to €1.8 bn including €596 mn cash outflow for acquisitions (mainly Hornschuch and Argus); free cash flow before acquisitions amounted to €2.3 bn
› Gearing ratio down to 13%; equity ratio up to 44%
› Value creation: trailing ROCE 4 up slightly to 20.6%
› Other topics:
› Order intake: lifetime sales in the Automotive Group increased to almost €40 bn
› Dividend to increase by €0.25 to €4.505 for FY 2017
1) Corporation Highlights 2017 and Outlook 2018Most Important KPIs for FY 2017
1 Before amortization of intangibles from PPA, consolidation and special effects2 Amortization of intangibles from PPA3 Attributable to the shareholders of the parent4 Trailing ROCE is calculated as reported EBIT for the last twelve months (LTM) divided by average operating assets for the LTM5 Subject to approval of the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting (ASM) on April 27, 2018
3
BofAML Global Industrials Conference 2018March 20-21, 2018
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9,56910,030
9,61810,016 9,851
10,191 9,98410,524
11,000 11,03310,693
11,284
1,0901,292
644
1,284 1,166 1,163 1,0901,329
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17
Sales (€ mn) Adj. EBIT (€ mn)
1) Corporation Highlights 2017 and Outlook 2018Sales and Adjusted EBIT1 by Quarter
4
1 Before amortization of intangibles from PPA, consolidation and special effects
FY Sales €39,232 mn FY Sales €40,549 mnAdj. EBIT1 €4,310 mn
FY Sales €44,009 mnAdj. EBIT1 €4,747 mn
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1) Corporation Highlights 2017 and Outlook 2018Market Outlook 2018
5
Commercial Vehicle 2 Production (k units)
Commercial Vehicle Replacement 3 Tire Market (mn units)
PC & LT1 Production (mn units)
PC & LT1 Replacement Tire Market (mn units)
Worldwide production to increase more than 1%
Worldwide production to decrease by 1%
Worldwide replace-ment tire market to increase by 3%
Worldwide replace-ment market to increase by 2%
IHS and own estimates
LMC and own estimates
IHS and own estimates
LMC and own estimates
2017E 2018E Chg.
Europe 22.1 22.5 +2%
North America 17.1 16.8 -2%
South America 3.3 3.6 +8%
Asia 51.5 52.5 +2%
2017E 2018E Chg.
Europe 660 673 +2%
North America 513 559 +9%
South America 102 112 +10%
Asia 2,140 2,033 -5%
2017E 2018E Chg.
Europe 351 358 +2%
North America 285 290 +2%
South America 73 76 +4%
Asia 453 475 +5%
2017E 2018E Chg.
Europe 25.3 25.8 +2%
North America 24.5 25.3 +3%
South America 15.7 16.4 +5%
Asia 89.2 91.0 +2%
1 Passenger car and light truck <6t2 Medium and heavy vehicles >6t3 Radial and bias
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1) Corporation Highlights 2017 and Outlook 2018Continental Corporation Outlook 2018
6
2017 2018EConsolidated sales adj. EBIT1 margin
€44.0 bn10.9 %
To increase to ~€47 bn at constant FX rates ~10.5% adj. EBIT1 margin
Automotive Groupadj. EBIT1
€26.6 bn€2.2 bn
To increase to ~€28.5 bn at constant FX rates ~8.5% adj. EBIT1 margin
Rubber Groupadj. EBIT1
€17.5 bn€2.6 bn
To increase to ~€18.5 bn at constant FX rates ~15% adj. EBIT1 margin
Raw materials cost impact More than €450 mnfor the Rubber Group
Raw materials to burden Rubber Groupwith about €50 mn, based on current estimates
Special effects -€14 mn -€100 mn
Financial resultTax rate
-€187 mn at constant FX2
29%<-€180 mn at constant FX rates<30%
CapexPPA amortization
€2.9 bn€171 mn
Capex at around 7% of sales ~€180 mn
Free cash flow before acquisitions €2.3 bn ~€2 bn
1 Before amortization of intangibles from PPA, consolidation and special effects2 Before effects of currency translation and effects from changes in the fair value of derivative instruments and other valuation effects
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› Revenue pool for suppliers reached more than €1 trnin 2017
› Business related to “established” business will grow by ~1% p.a. and reach ~€1.1 trn in 2025
› Revenues share of Electrification1, Automated Driving and Holistic Connectivity represented in total <3% in 2017
› Revenue share of Electrification1, Automated Driving and Holistic Connectivity will grow by ~30% p.a. to >€200 bn in 2025
› It will account for ~15% of the overall supplier revenue market by 2025
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Sources: Roland Berger and Continental estimates. FX rate assumption 1.13 EUR/USD.1 Not including market for electric vehicle batteries but including hybrid solutions.
2) Automotive TrendsNew Business Opportunities Arise
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2017 2025
New Business Opportunities
Established Business
30% p.a.
1% p.a.
Global Supplier Revenue Pool (bn €)
8
2) Automotive TrendsFour ACES1 Will Drive Our Growth
1) Four ACES: autonomous, connected, electrified and shared mobility2) Total Addressable Market 3) Not including market for batteries but hybrid solutions4) McKinsey estimates a market for digital services of US70$ - 110 billion in 2025;
FX rate assumption of 1.13 EUR/USD
ElectrificationAutomated Driving Holistic Connectivity
TAM2 in bn €3TAM2 in bn € TAM2 in bn €4
Shared MobilitySources: McKinsey and Continental estimates
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3) Key Enabler: DigitalizationThe Most Digitalized Portfolio in The Supplier Sector1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Competitor 10
Competitor 9
Competitor 8
Competitor 7
Competitor 6
Competitor 5
Competitor 4
Competitor 3
Competitor 2
Competitor 1
ContinentalAutomotive
Today: Electronics/Sensors/SW products as % of sales Continental 2025: Electronics/Sensors/SW products as % of sales
Source: Company filings and Continental estimates. 1 Suppliers >€3 bn sales.
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3) Key Enabler: DigitalizationStrong Order Intake Drives Sustainable Growth…
Automotive Group: Strong Order Intake (bn €)
1 Lifetime Sales
1
23.6 24.526.6
28.5 >3030
35
40
2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Automotive Group Sales Order Intake (LTS)
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3) Key Enabler: Digitalization… but Causes Sustained High R&D and Capex
1,47
5
1,58
9
1,83
6
2,09
7
2,43
1
2,67
6
7.6%
7.9% 8.8%
8.9% 9.9%
10.1
%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
E
2019
E
2020
E
2021
E
2022
E
R&D expenditure (€ mn) R&D as percentage of sales
1,03
6
1,01
6
1,12
6
1,27
5
1,49
7
1,79
0
5.3%
5.1%
5.4%
5.4%
6.1% 6.7%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
E
2019
E
2020
E
2021
E
2022
E
Capex (€ mn) Capex ratio
Automotive Group R&D (€ mn) Automotive Group Capex (€ mn)
› Until 2025 the internal combustion engine (ICE) will be the most dominant force amongst the different propulsion types
› More variants of hybridization due to decline in Diesel
› Strong increase in pure Electric Vehicles after 2025
› Breakthrough in battery technology might accelerate scenario
12
4) ElectrificationElectrification of Engines: Estimated Development
Global PC & LT1 Production by Engine Type (mn units)
1 Passenger car and light truck <6t
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4) ElectrificationRelative Value of Continental’s Content in Powertrains1
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HEV-related business including extended offering
Gasoline-related business
Diesel-related business
BEV-related business including extended offering
100%1 160% 160-360% 400%› Engine management systems for
diesel piezo common-rail injection (injector, ECUs, pressure pumps)
› Exhaust aftertreatment› Sensors and actuators
› Engine management systems for solenoid direct injection (injector, ECU, pressure pumps)
› Exhaust aftertreatment› Sensors and actuators› Turbochargers
› Engine management systems (gasoline/diesel)
› Exhaust aftertreatment› Sensors and actuators› Turbochargers
and› 48V solutions (12kW/ 15kW/ 25kW)
or› Plug-in hybrid solutions (incl. thermal
components & charging systems)
› High-voltage axle drive› Power electronics› Onboard charging systems› Battery management systems› DC/DC converter› Thermal management
components
Well positioned in all key technologies!1 Value of displayed gasoline content per car is indexed at 100%; all other values read relative to the gasoline content.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2017 Sales 2017
Mechanics and hydraulics Electronics Electrification
14
4) ElectrificationPowertrain Division: Order Intake Confirms Shift to Electronics & Electrification
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1 Order Intake as Lifetime Sales
Order Intake
€ 13.4 bn∑ € 7.7 bn∑
15
5) Automated DrivingMarket for Automated Driving: Estimated Development
15
L5L4L3L0-L2 Total Market
PC & LT1 production (mn units)
1 Passenger car and light truck <6t
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5) Automated DrivingMarket for Automated Driving: Three-Layer Model
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System
ElectronicsSoftware
Integration ~€7 bn
Environmental ModelSoftware
Electronics~€2 bn
Market for Automated Driving~€35 bn1 by 2025
ComponentsSensors~€26 bn
Cooperation/Joint Venture
ADCU
Recent Additions to the Portfolio
1 Source: Continental estimates
DIGILENS
HUAWEI easyMILE
BMW intel NTT docomo
HERE Baidu China unicom
17
5) Automated DrivingADAS Sensors per Car
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1 Sources: https://www.bmwgroup.com/content/dam/bmw-group-websites/bmwgroup_com/ ir/technologie_workshops/Technology_Workshops_Autonomous_Driving.pdf https://www.gm.com/content/dam/gm/events/docs/5265893-685163-Chartset-11-30-2017
2 Continental estimates, depending on customers and future regulatory requirements.3 Ultrasonic not in Continental portfolio.
Short Range
Radar
Surround View
Ultrasonic3
Camera
3D Flash Lidar
Long Range
Radar
Sensors per car
Level 4/5Level 3Level 2
441
401
33-402
25-292
18-222
BMW
GM
Continental
System Manufacturers Component Suppliers
OI 2017: ~€3.5
bn
OI 2016:
€3.5 bn
Sales (€ mn)
Incl
. Ele
ktro
bit,
HM
I and
HuD
n/a n/a
~2,
500
OI 2016:
€0.4 bn
OI 2016:
€1.3 bn
18
5) Automated DrivingLeading Position of Continental in ADAS
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1 Continental ADAS = Radar, Lidar, Camera and ADCUs, 2017 OI includes ADAS related CVAM business OI 2 Bosch PR May 4th, 2017; Bosch has not communicated any future ADAS sales target; Bosch includes ultrasonic in ADAS sensors; Bosch target is a 2019 target 3 Denso reports ADAS sales as part of “Information and safety systems”; Denso’s ADAS target 03/2021 looks for JPY 200 bn; sales are annualized4 Autoliv active safety products: radar systems, vision and night systems, active seatbelts and brake systems, dynamic spot light and system integration; 2020 target 5 Mobileye 2016 sales; company has the target to achieve 1.1 bn USD sales by 20196 Hella: according to Jeffries Research7 Delphi 2016 sales represent company communication from Q2 2016 and target to achieve 1 bn USD sales by 20198 Valeo reports sales for comfort and driving assist only. It includes rain, lighting and ultrasonic sensors in DA sales; it has no official target for future ADAS sales communicated9 ZF has not provided any sales data on its ADAS business
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~10%
~20%
~40%
>1,000
~1,400~1,500
Estimated vehicle population (mn units)
6) Holistic ConnectivityRise of Connected Vehicles
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6) Holistic ConnectivitySoftware Drives Architecture, Process and Organization
morethan 170 Sensors
Actuatorsmorethan 150
Yesterday Today
up to
ECUs
Classic ECU
Performance/Safety ECU
“small ECU”/Sensor/Actor
Virtualized Performance Controller
90 <10
morethan 200 Sensors
Actuatorsmorethan 150
Tomorrow
Only
High performancecomputers
Increasing Computing Power
› Increasing computing powerwill lead to an centralized E/E architecture
› Hardware will be separated from software – software integration capabilities are needed
› Security supporting approach by multilayered, end-to-end solutions and services required
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6) Holistic ConnectivityCentral Processing Unit in a Server Based Architecture
1 EEA = Electric/Electronic architecture2 I/O = Input / Output
Automated driving
Electrification
Connectivity
New Mobility
010011000101010011
Digitalization
IoTInternet of Things
SW defined carMaster for Cyber Security, SW over-the-air updates and vehicle diagnosis.Elektrobit SW management and Argus cyber security solutions are essential elements.
› Automotive and cross industry trends require new approaches in EEA*
› Move towards structures known from IT industry
› The In-Vehicle server is a cornerstone of modern vehicle architectures
› The In-vehicle Server offers a HW/SW platform realizing individual use cases:
High performance computing unit. Predefined appli-cations as well as new 3rd party SW and service inte-gration.
Redistribution of application SW. Separation of I/O* logic from appli-cation function + application fusion across domains.
In-vehicle communication. Increasing demand of in-vehicle network bandwidth.
22
7) Tires: No Disruption but EvolutionFour ACES Will Reduce Costs per Mile Traveled
Shared Mobility
Automated Mobility
Electrification
Connectivity
› Higher utilization of car park› Lower cost per mile traveled
› Results in greater access to mobility
Better safety
Fuel efficiency
Economies of scale
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7) Tires: No Disruption but EvolutionGreater Access to Mobility for a Growing World Population
Increased global mobilityGrowth of global population More miles traveled
World population Miles per captiva Global miles traveled
2015 2020 20252015 2020 2025
Sources: Continental, World Bank, Morgan Stanley, Roland Berger
2015 2020 20252015 2020 2025
2015 2020 2025
63%
37%43%
53%
47%57%
2015 2020 2025
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7) Tires: No Disruption but EvolutionTires Division Strategy 2025: Globalize Growth (mn units)1
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0
40
80
120
2010 2015 2025 target
∑120
∑142 ∑>200
2 1 3
› 2010-2025: Continental growth to outperform global market growth
› Strongest growth in APAC, followed by The Americas
› Improving Global sales split
The Americas
APAC
EMEA
1 Continental global production capacity of PC< and CV tires
25
8) ContiTech – Smart Solutions Beyond RubberRelevant Markets and Growth Opportunities
Σ~€82 bn
Σ~€60 bn
1 Benecke-Hornschuch Surface Group (incl. Elastomer Coatings from 1/2018)
3 Industrial Fluid Systems
4 Vibration Control
5 Power Transmission Group
6 Conveyor Belt Group
7 Air Spring Systems
2 Mobile Fluid Systems1
2
3
4
5
67
20252017
› Balanced portfolio of OE Automotive and Non-OE Automotive businesses
› Growth through volume and (added) value1 expansion of products
1 Additional sales driven by servitization and software
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8) ContiTech – Smart Solutions Beyond RubberUnveiling the Power of Digitalization
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› Advanced use of process data helps to improve asset efficiency, logistics and maintenance by facilitating operational excellence.
Servitization and smart Conveyer Belts
Added value through functional integration
of electronics and software 1
Highly automated operations
Automation and horizontal integration
Functional integration Lifecycle integration
1 Example for combination of our air springs with the sensor technology, software, control devices for height adjustment and Continental compressors
Value Creation
2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E
Rubber sales (€ bn) Automotive sales (€ bn) Automotive sales ACES (€ bn)
9) Continental Strategy – Outlook 2020 and Beyond2020E: Sales Exceed €50 bn and ROCE More Than 20%
27
2005-2010: 3% 2010-2015: 4% 2015-2020E: 1-2%Global PC & LT2
Production CAGR
RubberGroup
AutomotiveGroup
19%
12%
21%
>20%
14
26
39
>50
1 ACES: Automated Driving, Connectivity, Electrification and Shared Mobility2 Passenger car and light truck
1
Return on capital employed (ROCE)
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Disclaimer
› This presentation has been prepared by Continental Aktiengesellschaft solely in connection with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Industrials Conference on March 20-21, 2018, in London. It has not been independently verified. It does not constitute an offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase or subscribe for any shares or other securities issued by Continental AG or any subsidiary and neither shall any part of it form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract or commitment concerning the purchase or sale of such shares or other securities whatsoever.
› Neither Continental Aktiengesellschaft nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss that may arise from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation.
› This presentation includes assumptions, estimates, forecasts and other forward-looking statements, including statements about our beliefs and expectations regarding future developments as well as their effect on the results of Continental. These statements are based on plans, estimates and projections as they are currently available to the management of Continental. Therefore, these statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any of them in light of new information or future events. Furthermore, although the management is of the opinion that these statements, and their underlying beliefs and expectations, are realistic as of the date they are made, no guarantee can be given that the expected developments and effects will actually occur. Many factors may cause the actual development to be materially different from the expectations expressed here. Such factors include, for example and without limitation, changes in general economic and business conditions, fluctuations in currency exchange rates or interest rates, the introduction of competing products, the lack of acceptance for new products or services and changes in business strategy.
› All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of Continental or any of its competitors are estimates of Continental based on data available to Continental. Such data are neither comprehensive nor independently verified. Consequently, the data used are not adequate for and the statements based on such data are not meant to be an accurate or proper definition of regional and/or product markets or market shares of Continental and any of the participants in any market.
› Unless otherwise stated, all amounts are shown in millions of euro. Please note that differences may arise as a result of the use of rounded amounts and percentages.
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ContinentalFinancial Calendar
30
2018
Preliminary figures for fiscal 2017 January 9, 2018
Annual Financial Press Conference March 8, 2018
Annual Shareholders’ Meeting (incl. key data for Q1 2018) April 27, 2018
Q1 Financial Report May 8, 2018
Half-Year Financial Report August 2, 2018
Nine-Month Financial Report November 8, 2018
2019
Preliminary figures for fiscal 2018 January 2019
Annual Financial Press Conference March 2019
Annual Shareholders’ Meeting (incl. key data for Q1 2019) April 26, 2019
Q1 Financial Report May 2019
Half-Year Financial Report August 2019
Nine-Month Financial Report November 2019
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ContinentalShare Data/ADR Data
31
Share Data
Type of share No-par value share
Bloomberg Ticker CON
Reuters Ticker CONG
German Security Identification Number (WKN) 543 900
ISIN DE0005439004
Shares outstanding as at December 31, 2017 200,005,983
ADR Data
Ratio 1:5 (ordinary share : ADRs)
Bloomberg Ticker CTTAY
Reuters Ticker CTTAY.PK
ISIN US2107712000
ADR Level Level 1
Exchange OTC
Sponsor Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas
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ContinentalBond Data
32
Issuer Continental AGContinentalRubber of America, Corp.1
Continental AG Continental AG
Issue Senior Notes Senior Notes Senior Notes Senior Notes
Principal amount €750 mn €500 mn €600 mn €750 mn
Offering price 98.950% 99.739% 99.410% 99.228%
Rating at issuance dateBa2 (Moody’s4)BB (S&P)BB (Fitch2)
BBB (S&P)BBB (Fitch)
BBB+ (S&P)BBB+ (Fitch)
Ba1 (Moody’s4)BB (S&P)BBB (Fitch2)
Current corporation and bond ratings 3 BBB+ (Fitch), BBB+ (S&P), Baa1 (Moody’s 4)
Coupon 3.0% p.a. 0.5% p.a. 0.0% p.a. 3.125% p.a.
Issue date July 16, 2013 November 19, 2015 December 5, 2016 September 9, 2013
Maturity July 16, 2018 February 19, 2019 February 5, 2020 September 9, 2020
Interest paymentSemi annualJanuary 16/July 16
AnnualFebruary 19,Commenced February 20, 2017
Not applicableAnnualSeptember 9
WKN A1X24V A1Z7C3 A2DARM A1X3B7
ISIN XS0953199634 DE000A1Z7C39 XS1529561182 XS0969344083
Denomination €1,000 with minimum tradable amount €1,000
1 Guaranteed by Continental AG2 Non-contracted rating at date of issuance3 Fitch since October 24, 2016; S&P since May 11, 2016; Moodyʼs since June 30, 20154 Non-contracted rating since February 1, 2014
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ReferencesUseful Links
33
Continental Investor Relations website www.continental-ir.com
Annual and interim reports www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/reports
2017 Fact Book (Investor presentation) www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/reports
Investor Relationsevents and presentations
www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/events/presentations
Sustainability at Continental (presentation and fact sheet for investors)
www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/about-us/presentation-sustainability-at-continental-23118
Corporate Social Responsibility www.continental-sustainability.com
Corporate Governance Principles www.continental-corporation.com/en/company/corporate-governance/principles-and-declarations
Continental shares www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/share
Continental bonds and rating www.continental-corporation.com/en/investors/debt-and-rating
Continental IR on Twitter twitter.com/Continental_IR
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ContactEquity and Debt Markets Relations
Vahrenwalder Str. 930165 HanoverGermany
e-mail: ir@conti.deFax: +49 511 938 1080 www.continental-ir.com
Michael SaemannAnalysts, Institutional Investors and Sustainability Investors
Phone: +49 511 938 1307e-mail: michael.saemann@conti.de
Klaus PaeslerAnalysts, Institutional Investors, ADR and Private Investors
Phone: +49 511 938 1316 e-mail: klaus.paesler@conti.de
Marvin KalberlahAnalysts, Institutional Investors,Social Media
Phone: +49 511 938 14034e-mail: marvin.kalberlah@conti.de
Christopher MackeAnalysts, Institutional Investors
Phone: +49 511 938 1062 e-mail: christopher.macke@conti.de
Sabine ReeseSustainability, ASM, CMD Organization, IR Website, Capital Market Disclosure Requirements
Phone: +49 511 938 1027 e-mail: sabine.reese@conti.de
Rolf WollerHead of IR
Phone: +49 511 938 1068e-mail: rolf.woller@conti.de
Jana CrossAssistant to the Head of IRRoadshow and Conference Organization
Phone: +49 511 938 1163e-mail: jana.cross@conti.de