Peder Nicolai JarlsbyEquity Analyst | +47 22 93 64 [email protected]
Ulrik MannhartCredit Analyst | +47 22 93 64 [email protected]
Erik HoviEquity Analyst | +47 22 93 63 [email protected]
Fearnley Securities Shipping Team Bloomberg FEFO <GO> | IB: Fearnley Sec [email protected] produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
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Table of Contents
Disclosures and Disclaimers87
Fearnley’s Shipping Outlook
Ship Values and Rates
Crude and Product Tankers
Dry Bulk Carriers
Container and Liners
Gas Carriers – LNG & LPG
Industrial and Other Shipping
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Shipping Outlook
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Industry Market outlook Company specifics
Segment Recc. Supply OB to fleet Comments Top Buy Top Sell
Crude
TankersBuy 2-3% 9 %
Production cuts/ floating storage unwinding results in challening near-term outlook.
Lowest OB since the mid 1990’s and largest phase out potential since the early 2000’s leaves room for
healthy tanker earnings once current disruptions are overcome.
DHT/FRO/TNK 0
Product Buy 2-3% 6 % Similar demand outlook as crude. HAFNI 0
Chemical Selective 3-4% 5 % Spillover from tankers. CoA contract structure implies lag on tanker/product earnings. 0 0
Dry bulk Neutral 1-2% 6 %
Surge in commodity prices as global stimuli programs imapcts key commodities. Rates unseasonably
strong in 1q21 ahead of expected strong 2h21. Risk evolves around Chinese production curbs, economic
growth and easing of congestion.
0
Container Buy 3-4% 21 %
The pandemic has boosted demand for containerized goods, while inventory restocking adds as fuel to the
fire. Proftability for liners/ lessors at 15-year high. We remain optimistic due to the resilience shown in the
downturn, with the only caveat being high order activity in 1h21.
TGH / ZIM 0
Car Carriers Buy 1-2% 4 %Recent datapoints provides some optimism with apperant demand recovery and potential inventory
replenishment. New H&H replacement cycle unlikely near-term, but should occur in 1-3 years time. WAWI 0
LNG Selective 7-8% 21 %2021-22 to see challenging utilization but improved product pricing. 2024 onwards marking the next
liquefaction cycle, but recovery hinges on limited speculative orders. 0 0
LPG Buy 6-7% 23 %Sustainability of current rates hinging on US and OPEC production levels. Expect fleet inefficiencies to aid
the market through 2021 and potentially into 2022. 0 0
Other Selective n.a. n.a.
Yards experiencing rush of orders into 2021, primarily for vessels tied up on longer term charters. Expect
limited speculative ordering in shipping due to continued reglation uncertainty whilst the offshore industry
is unlikely to provide much support.
0 0
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley Note: NB values including scrubber, resale- and secondhand values excluding scrubbers (USD 3m for VLCC)
Ship Values and Rates
Segment Size Range Unit Breakeven rate (USD/d) Cash on cash return (%)
Crude NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old OPEX 1 yr TC 5 yr avg. 10 yr avg. 1 yr TC 5 yr rate 10 yr rate
VLCC 200,000+ DWT 93 95 74 52 37 24 39 400 19 850 10 000 25 000 35 200 32 700 7 % 12 % 11 %
Suezmax 120-200,000 DWT 64 64 48 32 22 14 29 950 14 850 9 500 16 500 26 200 25 000 5 % 12 % 11 %
Aframax 80-120,000 DWT 54 54 40 25 17 10 25 800 12 650 8 500 17 000 20 400 19 000 7 % 10 % 9 %
Product
LR2 80-120,000 DWT 56 56 42 27 19 10 26 450 13 800 8 500 18 900 17 500 8 % 7 %
LR1 60-80,000 DWT 43 43 32 21 14 8 21 350 10 050 7 500 16 100 14 900 9 % 8 %
MR 40-60,000 DWT 37 37 28 18 12 6 18 950 9 300 7 000 14 100 12 800 8 % 7 %
Dry bulk Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old
New castlemax 200-220,000 DWT 59 62 50 36 22 16 25 650 11 850 7 000 37 000 n.a. n.a. 22 % n.a. n.a.
Capesize 170-200,000 DWT 55 60 48 34 22 14 23 900 10 900 6 500 32 000 17 600 18 500 19 % 8 % 9 %
Kamsarmax 80-90,000 DWT 38 38 32 24 18 9 18 150 12 100 6 000 32 000 n.a. n.a. 29 % n.a. n.a.
Panamax 65-80,000 DWT 30 32 27 22 17 8 15 600 12 500 6 000 29 500 13 500 12 900 31 % 9 % 8 %
Ultramax 60-65,000 DWT 34 35 30 25 20 7 16 900 8 300 6 000 32 000 n.a. n.a. 31 % n.a. n.a.
Supramax 50-60,000 DWT 32 33 28 22 16 6 16 300 10 550 6 000 30 000 13 000 12 300 30 % 8 % 7 %
Handymax 39-50,000 DWT 28 32 25 20 14 6 14 350 7 400 5 500 8 500 11 900 11 100 3 % 8 % 7 %
LPG Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old
VLGC 84 000 Cbm 74 81 71 59 44 8 31 750 19 550 9 000 28 000 36 900 34 500 9 % 14 % 13 %
MGC 35k 35 000 Cbm 46 48 41 32 23 3 22 400 13 250 8 000 25 500 23 100 22 900 15 % 13 % 13 %
Semi-ref 22k 22-24,000 Cbm 46 48 40 31 22 2 20 850 11 500 6 500 21 400 22 300 22 200 13 % 14 % 14 %
LNG
MEGI/ XDF 170k 170 000 Cbm 205 205 n/a n/a n/a 24 74 500 51 450 18 000 115 000 73 100 74 200 n.a. n.a. n.a.
DFDE 155k 155 000 Cbm n/a n/a 135 117 99 20 58 500 44 600 17 000 93 000 62 700 63 400 20 % 12 % 12 %
Turbine 150k 150 000 Cbm n/a n/a 90 65 45 20 41 700 24 550 14 000 53 000 44 800 44 800 15 % 12 % 12 %
Container Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old
Post-Panamax 16-18k 18 000 TEU 150 150 120 83 67 35 59 250 34 750 12 000 n.a. 48 800 46 700 n.a. 11 % 10 %
Post-Panamax 14-16k 14 500 TEU 145 150 126 103 79 32 56 700 38 750 11 000 n.a. 46 000 43 900 n.a. 10 % 9 %
Post-Panamax 10-12k 10 000 TEU 125 135 92 90 68 23 48 100 32 850 8 750 147 000 41 100 39 500 55 % 12 % 12 %
Post-Panamax 8-10k 8 500 TEU 105 120 90 88 85 22 41 650 39 250 8 500 129 000 37 600 36 800 49 % 11 % 11 %
Panamax 4.5-5k 4 600 TEU 68 68 65 60 54 10 29 050 27 550 7 500 100 000 15 900 14 700 52 % 4 % 4 %
Sub-Panamax 2.5-3k 2 750 TEU 38 48 46 44 40 7 18 300 21 150 6 250 81 300 12 800 12 100 59 % 5 % 4 %
Handy 1.5-2k 1 700 TEU 27 35 32 30 25 4 14 000 14 650 5 250 61 000 10 700 10 300 63 % 5 % 5 %
Handy 1-1.5k 1 000 TEU 23 29 25 21 17 5 11 950 10 900 4 600 38 000 8 500 8 200 48 % 5 % 4 %
Feedermax 0.7-1k 725 TEU 17 20 17 12 9 3 9 850 7 800 4 400 22 500 7 000 6 800 37 % 4 % 4 %
Ship values (USDm) Current (USDm) Historical rate (USD/d)
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Ship Values and Rates
Segment Size range Years Quarters
Crude Tanker Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
VLCC 200,000+ 16 217 24 433 58 724 41 525 21 475 17 600 34 200 50 000 24 800 60 000 30 000 65 000 90 000 30 000 15 000 9 000 10 000 20 000 60 000 51 000 42 000 60 000 87 000 25 500 21 000 30 000 43 500
Suezmax 120-200,000 15 511 25 854 45 171 28 125 13 350 14 100 24 500 31 300 17 900 41 000 21 000 50 000 50 000 15 000 10 000 6 500 10 000 14 000 41 000 34 850 28 700 41 000 59 450 17 850 14 700 21 000 30 450
Aframax 80-120,000 14 131 23 472 36 929 22 550 9 550 9 800 20 200 23 500 13 900 31 000 16 000 40 000 35 000 10 000 9 000 6 000 8 000 10 500 31 000 26 350 21 700 31 000 44 950 13 600 11 200 16 000 23 200
Product Tanker Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
LR2 80-120,000 13 683 17 993 29 962 17 750 10 000 11 300 19 700 24 500 16 500 32 000 16 000 25 000 40 000 18 000 15 000 10 000 12 000 12 000 32 000 27 200 22 400 32 000 46 400 13 600 11 200 16 000 23 200
LR1 60-80,000 12 039 16 473 24 711 14 375 10 275 9 400 16 800 21 100 14 000 27 000 13 500 22 000 35 000 16 000 11 500 9 000 10 000 10 000 27 000 22 950 18 900 27 000 39 150 11 475 9 450 13 500 19 575
MR 40-60,000 13 277 11 527 21 859 12 875 10 515 10 600 15 400 17 300 12 500 22 000 11 000 20 000 25 000 14 000 10 000 8 000 10 000 10 000 22 000 18 700 15 400 22 000 31 900 9 350 7 700 11 000 15 950
Dry bulk Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
Capesize 170-200,000 14 578 14 368 7 373 7 325 14 600 16 800 16 900 11 800 30 000 29 800 23 908 10 000 6 000 16 000 15 000 19 000 32 000 36 000 33 000 19 000 32 000 41 000 27 000 18 000 24 000 27 000 25 000
Panamax 65-80,000 9 498 7 655 5 751 5 400 9 600 12 600 12 100 8 900 26 000 26 000 15 618 8 500 5 000 11 000 11 000 18 000 25 000 32 000 29 000 18 000 25 000 32 000 29 000 18 000 19 000 22 000 21 000
Supramax 50-60,000 10 297 9 877 7 115 5 925 9 275 11 400 9 700 7 800 25 000 25 000 16 296 7 500 5 500 8 000 10 000 18 000 26 000 30 000 26 000 18 000 26 000 30 000 26 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000
Handymax 39-50,000 9 243 8 783 6 318 5 438 8 463 10 100 8 400 7 100 24 000 24 000 14 365 6 750 5 250 6 750 9 500 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000
Handysize 20-38,000 8 190 7 690 5 522 4 988 7 650 8 800 7 100 6 400 24 000 24 000 13 196 6 000 5 000 5 500 9 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000
LNG Cbm 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
MEGI/ XDF 170k 170 000 n/a n/a n/a 49 925 83 300 86 300 68 800 82 500 67 500 74 487 95 000 50 000 45 000 85 000 135 000 55 000 65 000 75 000 80 000 55 000 55 000 80 000 80 000 55 000 55 000 80 000
DFDE 170k 170 000 118 308 74 283 41 476 38 236 44 925 78 300 79 500 63 000 77 500 62 500 71 796 87 000 45 000 40 000 80 000 130 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 75 000 50 000 50 000 75 000 75 000 50 000 50 000 75 000
DFDE 155k 155 000 113 308 69 283 36 476 33 236 39 925 73 300 74 500 58 000 72 500 56 300 58 492 82 000 40 000 35 000 75 000 125 000 45 000 55 000 65 000 70 000 45 000 45 000 65 000 70 000 45 000 45 000 65 000
Turbine 150k 150 000 100 433 55 626 27 762 21 771 24 050 43 300 49 400 43 300 49 300 37 100 41 697 63 000 30 000 25 000 55 000 90 000 30 000 35 750 41 250 44 000 30 250 30 250 44 000 44 000 30 250 30 250 44 000
Turbine 125k (old) 125 000 38 692 28 969 24 375 16 328 18 038 32 400 37 000 32 400 36 900 27 800 30 000 47 250 22 500 18 750 41 250 67 500 22 500 26 813 30 938 33 000 22 688 22 688 33 000 33 000 22 688 22 688 33 000
LPG Cbm 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
VLGC 84 000 34 830 74 050 78 205 21 750 15 500 17 800 38 600 38 400 37 500 31 766 31 766 47 000 40 600 26 000 40 000 45 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766
Semi-ref 22k 22-24,000 26 143 31 037 35 689 19 275 15 875 16 300 17 700 22 400 24 900 20 831 20 831 22 000 22 500 22 500 22 500 24 750 24 500 24 500 26 000 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831
Semi-ref 15k 15 000 23 552 30 405 34 962 20 671 15 852 15 300 19 000 19 000 19 000 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040
Semi-ref 12k 12 000 22 945 25 182 27 295 18 092 14 106 14 000 15 800 15 800 15 800 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830
Semi-ref 5k 5 000 8 875 9 141 9 415 8 224 8 224 9 100 9 100 9 100 9 100 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088
Container TEU 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E
Post-Panamax 16-18k 18 000 50 391 52 400 49 163 33 202 35 950 40 700 47 500 38 900 72 500 67 500 59 274 37 500 37 500 37 500 43 000 57 500 77 500 77 500 77 500 67 500 67 500 67 500 67 500 37 500 37 500 37 500 37 500
Post-Panamax 14-16k 14 500 47 031 48 906 45 885 30 988 33 553 40 000 42 500 36 400 70 000 65 000 56 712 35 000 35 000 35 000 40 500 55 000 75 000 75 000 75 000 65 000 65 000 65 000 65 000 35 000 35 000 35 000 35 000
Post-Panamax 10-12k 10 000 40 313 41 920 39 330 26 561 28 760 34 800 32 500 31 400 80 000 55 000 48 086 30 000 30 000 30 000 35 500 50 000 70 000 100 000 100 000 60 000 60 000 50 000 50 000 30 000 30 000 30 000 30 000
Post-Panamax 8-10k 8 500 37 625 39 125 36 708 24 791 26 843 30 500 35 600 27 100 72 500 45 000 41 661 28 000 17 400 30 000 33 000 45 000 65 000 90 000 90 000 50 000 50 000 40 000 40 000 25 000 25 000 25 000 25 000
Panamax 4.5-5k 4 600 8 324 8 771 11 817 4 979 7 913 10 500 11 100 13 500 55 000 27 500 29 051 12 900 8 500 12 600 20 000 30 000 50 000 70 000 70 000 30 000 30 000 25 000 25 000 17 500 17 500 17 500 17 500
Sub-Panamax 2.5-3k 2 750 7 036 7 425 9 562 6 000 8 788 10 000 9 800 10 500 40 000 18 800 18 281 9 900 8 000 9 400 14 500 20 000 30 000 55 000 55 000 20 000 20 000 17 500 17 500 13 500 13 500 13 500 13 500
Handy 1.5-2k 1 700 7 315 7 313 8 842 6 804 7 500 9 100 8 100 8 100 30 000 13 800 13 977 7 800 6 300 7 000 11 300 15 000 25 000 40 000 40 000 15 000 15 000 12 500 12 500 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000
Handy 1-1.5k 1 000 6 480 6 396 7 250 6 550 6 334 7 100 6 100 6 100 21 300 11 300 11 934 6 000 5 400 5 600 7 300 10 000 15 000 30 000 30 000 12 500 12 500 10 000 10 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000
Feedermax 0.7-1k 725 4 999 4 979 5 367 5 433 5 271 5 600 5 200 5 500 18 500 9 500 9 852 5 000 4 900 5 200 7 000 10 000 14 000 25 000 25 000 10 000 10 000 9 000 9 000 8 000 8 000 8 000 8 000
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Ship Values and Rates
Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 LR1 MR
USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change
Newbuild 93.0 64.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 37.0
Resale 94.5 64.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 37.0
5 year 74.0 47.5 40.0 42.0 32.0 28.0
10 year 51.5 32.0 25.0 27.0 21.0 18.0
15 year 37.0 22.0 17.0 18.5 13.5 12.0
Bulkers Newcastlemax Capesize Kamsarmax Panamax Ultramax Supramax
USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change
Newbuild 59 55 38 30 34 32
Resale 62 60 38 32 35 33
5 year 49.5 47.5 32 27 30 28
10 year 36 34 24 22 25 22
15 year 22 22 18 17 20 16
Container 9k teu 6.6k teu 4.5k teu 2.7k teu 1.7k teu 1k teu
USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change
Newbuild 105 80 68 38 27 23
Resale 120 95 68 48 35 29
5 year 90 85 65 46 32 25
10 year 88 70 60 44 30 21
15 year 85 62 54 40 25 17
Gas MEGI/XDF TFDE 155k Steam Turbine VLGC MGC 22k Semi-Ref
USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change
Newbuild 205 n/a n/a 74 46 46
Resale 205 n/a n/a 81 48 48
5 year n/a 135 90 71 41 40
10 year n/a 117 65 59 32 31
15 year n/a 99 45 44 23 22
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, Baltic Exchange
Capesize 5 TC avg.VLCC Wafr/AG-East
VLGC rates AG-East LNG spot seasonality (160k cbm TFDE)
Ship Values and Rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
Dk/d
5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021 Last (14.okt)
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
Dk/d
5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
Dk/d
Average '16-20 2020 2021
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Mar Jun Aug Oct
US
Dk/d
5 year range Average '16-'20 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Factset, Fearnley
1 Month Total Return by Segment YTD Total Return by Segment1 Week Total Return by Segment
Sector Overview
-6%
-4%
-3%
-3%
-3%
-1%
-1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
8%
17%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Dry Bulk
LPG Transportation
Product Tankers
Container Liners
LNG Transportation
Other MLP/Leasing
Container Lessors
Chemicals
Crude Tankers
FSRU/FLNG
LNG MLP
LNG Industrial
RoRo/PCTC
-13%
-5%
-4%
-4%
4%
6%
14%
15%
17%
17%
17%
26%
35%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Container Liners
Dry Bulk
Container Lessors
LPG Transportation
Product Tankers
RoRo/PCTC
LNG MLP
Chemicals
Other MLP/Leasing
LNG Industrial
Crude Tankers
FSRU/FLNG
LNG Transportation
2%
15%
15%
23%
26%
32%
54%
57%
58%
77%
91%
136%
155%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%
LPG Transportation
Product Tankers
Chemicals
LNG MLP
LNG Industrial
Crude Tankers
Other MLP/Leasing
RoRo/PCTC
FSRU/FLNG
Container Liners
Container Lessors
LNG Transportation
Dry Bulk
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Crude and Product Tankers
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Crude and Product Tankers
-11%
-10%
-8%
-3%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
-1%
2%
2%
4%
5%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
NNA
TNP
STNG
NAT
TNK
FRO
OET
ASC
TRMD
HAFNIA
INSW
HUNT
CCORB
DHT
EURN
TOTAL RETURNLast week
-10%
-4%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
6%
6%
7%
11%
11%
14%
16%
30%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
NNA
INSW
STNG
NAT
OET
CCORB
TRMD
HAFNIA
HUNT
TNK
ASC
FRO
TNP
DHT
EURN
TOTAL RETURNLast month
-17%
-16%
12%
12%
13%
14%
18%
19%
21%
29%
41%
43%
43%
51%
70%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
CCORB
NAT
TRMD
INSW
HAFNIA
NNA
TNP
ASC
TNK
DHT
FRO
EURN
HUNT
STNG
OET
TOTAL RETURNYTD
TANKERS Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float
Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD
Ardmore ASC US 5.8 49 % 3.9 USD 34 133 1.0 n/a -1.5 11.2 18.7
DHT DHT US 10.0 50 % 6.7 USD 171 1 138 12.7 83 % 0.5 20.4 29.4
Euronav EURN US 13.5 24 % 10.9 USD 212 2 300 36.9 73 % 2.9 33.0 37.0
Frontline FRO NO 120.0 57 % 76.6 NOK 198 1 801 14.8 54 % -1.8 24.6 41.1
Hafnia HAFNIA NO 26.0 47 % 17.7 NOK 368 775 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Hunter Group HUNT NO 4.7 53 % 3.1 NOK 575 211 0.5 47 % 0.1 14.9 43.2
International Seaw ays INSW 30.0 76 % 17.1 USD 50 850 5.8 98 % -1.6 -0.5 12.4
Nordic American Tankers NAT US 2.4 USD 153 373 6.0 97 % -3.6 3.0 -15.9
Okeanis Eco Tankers OET NO 150.0 75 % 85.5 NOK 32 329 0.3 39 % -1.0 8.8 69.9
Scorpio Tankers STNG US 32.0 93 % 16.6 USD 59 977 14.5 89 % -7.6 3.1 51.1
Teekay Tankers TNK US 23.0 72 % 13.4 USD 34 449 4.4 83 % -5.0 16.8 21.4
Torm TRMD.A 80.0 58 % 50.5 DKK 80 634 1.2 99 % -2.2 3.8 12.2
Average 59 % 831 76 % -1.9 12.6 29.1
% Total return, last
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42 Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Crude and Product Tankers
TANKERS Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV
Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Ardmore ASC US 3.9 USD 133 7.2 0.5 0.8 8x 13x 4x nm nm 3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.4x 0 % 0 % 0 %
DHT DHT US 6.7 USD 1138 7.0 1.0 1.0 3x 7x 3x 3x 17x 4x 0.8x 1.0x 0.9x 21 % 5 % 17 %
Euronav EURN US 10.9 USD 2300 12.7 0.9 0.9 3x 10x 3x 4x nm 4x 0.7x 1.0x 0.9x 18 % 6 % 21 %
Frontline FRO NO 76.6 NOK 1801 60.0 1.3 1.1 5x 11x 5x 3x 14x 3x 0.8x 1.0x 0.9x 19 % 7 % 26 %
Hafnia HAFNIA NO 17.7 NOK 775 22.9 0.8 0.9 5x 8x 3x 4x 29x 2x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 11 % 5 % 22 %
Hunter Group HUNT NO 3.1 NOK 211 3.3 0.9 1.0 4x 9x 4x 4x 15x 4x 0.9x 1.0x 0.9x 0 % 34 % 15 %
International Seaw ays INSW 17.1 USD 850 31.1 0.5 0.8 4x 8x 2x 4x 7x 2x 0.5x 0.8x 0.6x 1 % 8 % 24 %
Nordic American Tankers NAT US 2.4 USD 373 2.5 1.0 1.0 5x 9x 2x 9x nm 2x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 14 % 6 % 22 %
Okeanis Eco Tankers OET NO 85.5 NOK 329 97.9 0.9 1.0 6x 6x 4x 2x 7x 3x 0.5x 0.8x 0.7x 23 % 15 % 19 %
Scorpio Tankers STNG US 16.6 USD 977 26.0 0.6 0.9 7x 12x 4x 6x nm 2x 0.3x 0.5x 0.4x 4 % 2 % 2 %
Teekay Tankers TNK US 13.4 USD 449 21.8 0.6 0.8 3x 7x 1x 2x nm 2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0 % 0 % 0 %
Torm TRMD.A 50.5 DKK 634 76.0 0.7 0.8 4x 10x 3x 5x nm 3x 0.5x 0.6x 0.5x 11 % 0 % 9 %
Average 664 0.8 0.9 5x 8x 3x 4x 10x 3x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 9 % 6 % 12 %
EV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B Dividend yield
TANKERS Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV
Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Ardmore USD 133 461 303 25 246 574 57 32 100 1 -23 45 350 311 236 0.03 -0.67 1.32
DHT USD 1 138 1 644 507 - 1 193 1 699 450 221 463 246 67 317 381 393 115 1.58 0.39 1.86
Euronav USD 2 300 3 778 1 143 335 2 691 4 169 831 329 986 459 -55 593 1 112 1 195 797 2.16 -0.26 2.81
Frontline USD 1 801 4 511 1 900 810 1 411 4 121 634 346 827 417 130 581 2 026 2 184 2 221 2.13 0.66 2.94
Hafnia USD 775 1 860 1 084 - 1 003 2 088 363 229 541 164 27 344 1 207 1 061 711 0.45 0.07 0.93
Hunter Group USD 211 426 215 - 223 439 95 38 75 64 14 52 159 125 89 0.11 0.02 0.09
International Seaw ays USD 850 2 135 347 938 1 551 2 836 215 195 667 124 85 504 356 823 445 4.40 2.35 10.11
Nordic American Tankers USD 373 771 287 112 378 777 147 71 258 47 -24 159 295 293 208 0.32 -0.16 1.05
Okeanis Eco Tankers USD 329 1 338 811 198 377 1 386 183 126 203 104 49 117 809 454 543 3.19 1.52 3.63
Scorpio Tankers USD 977 3 901 2 857 67 1 531 4 456 508 324 818 108 -59 443 2 860 2 779 2 200 1.85 -1.00 7.53
Teekay Tankers USD 449 962 494 19 733 1 246 330 126 437 165 -30 284 517 454 82 4.90 -0.88 8.45
Torm USD 634 1 625 715 276 954 1 945 279 156 393 107 -11 220 707 913 624 1.4 -0.1 2.7
Average 664 1 780 938 178 861 1 976 330 157 389 152 -14 210 915 917 796 1.9 -0.3 2.9
EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnleys, Company data
Crude and Product Tankers
Tankers
DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TRMD
Share price (local) 6.7 10.9 76.6 3.1 17.1 2.4 85.5 13.4 3.9 18.0 16.6 50.5
Marketcap (fully diluted) 1 138 2 300 1 801 211 856 385 329 449 130 776 977 634
Net liabilities 470 1 796 2 755 163 1 211 390 915 559 310 1 058 2 924 977
EV 1 608 4 095 4 556 373 2 066 775 1 245 1 008 440 1 834 3 901 1 610
Fleet value (USDm) DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TRMD
Fleet value 1 636 4 220 4 121 354 2 364 773 1 303 1 209 583 2 127 4 358 1 889
Time Charter adjustmeents 1 196 158 0 -2 0 -1
Total f leet value 1 636 4 416 4 121 354 2 522 773 1 301 1 209 583 2 126 4 358 1 889
VLCC 1 636 3 163 1 878 354 872 719 26
Suezmax 1 015 1 311 534 773 351 702
Aframax 69 287
LR2 932 32 40 194 302 1 808 544
LR1 99 586 406 178
MR 662 421 1 004 1 799 1 147
SR 55 197 345 20
Other assets/investments 6 1 40 0 0 24 11 0 97 18
GAV 1 642 4 416 4 122 354 2 562 773 1 302 1 233 594 2 127 4 456 1 907
Net liabilities -470 -1 796 -2 755 -163 -1 211 -390 -915 -559 -310 -1 058 -2 924 -977
NAV 1 172 2 620 1 366 191 1 352 383 386 674 284 1 069 1 531 930
NAV per share 7 12 58 3 27 2 100 20 8 25 26 74
P/NAV 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x 1.1x 0.6x 1.0x 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 0.73x 0.6x 0.7x
EV/GAV 1.0x 0.9x 1.1x 1.06x 0.8x 1.0x 0.96x 0.8x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x
LTV, net 29 % 43 % 67 % 46 % 51 % 50 % 70 % 50 % 53 % 51 % 67 % 52 %
LTV, gross 32 % 46 % 73 % 56 % 61 % 58 % 86 % 58 % 70 % 58 % 74 % 60 %
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnleys, Company data Note: Implied VLCC: For illustrative purposes only, not all companies own VLCCs
Sensitivity to Δ in steel values 10% Δ in steel valuesImplied VLCC resale (USDm)
Tankers - Fleet Age and SizeCrude tankers – Owned fleet
Crude and Product Tankers
9388
104100
76
9590
77
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK
US
Dm
14 %16 %
30 %
19 %17 %
20 %
34 %
18 %21 % 20 %
28 %
20 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
40 %
DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TORM
NA
V u
psid
eV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNKVLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 LR1 MR
DHT
EURN
FRO
HUNT
INSW
NAT
OET
TNK
ASCSTNG TRMD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Avg
. D
wt
Avg. Age
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Tankers Historical P/ NAV EURN/ DHT/ FRO historical P/ NAV
Crude and Product Tankers
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Current
Avg. P/NAV VLCC rates (rhs)
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
jun. 15 des. 15 jun. 16 des. 16 jun. 17 des. 17 jun. 18 des. 18 jun. 19 des. 19 jun. 20 des. 20 jun. 21
EURN-US DHT-US FRO-NO
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Crude and Product Tankers
-5 000
15 000
35 000
55 000
75 000
95 000
115 000
135 000
155 000
Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21
US
D/d
TCE Annual avg.
Return of COSCO fleet
Price war
Abqiaq attack
Low supply growth & high deliveriesOPEC+ Cut
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
VLCC values (Yearly averages) Products 5-year asset valuesNB prices
Crude and Product Tankers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Avearg
e N
B
pri
ce (
US
Dm
)
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
US
Dm
Average yearly NB price Average yearly resale price
Average yearly 5y old Average yearly 10y old
10
20
30
40
50
60
jan. 13 okt. 13 jul. 14 apr. 15 jan. 16 okt. 16 jul. 17 apr. 18 jan. 19 okt. 19
US
Dm
LR2 LR1 MR
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Fearnley
Aframax MRVLCC
Crude and Product Tankers
93
95
74
52
37
27 24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NB 0 5 10 15 20 25
USD
m
Years
NBP VLCC VLCC Demolition
54
54
40
25
17
1110
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NB 0 5 10 15 20 25
USD
m
Years
NBP Aframax Aframax Demolition
37
37
28
18
12
7
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
NB 0 5 10 15 20 25
USD
m
Years
NBP MR MR Demolition
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley Notes: Unlevered at 10% wacc, 25 years useful life, OPEX+G&A ~$9,000/d
TC implied parity value vs. current prices2017/18 cycle vs current
2014/15 cycle vs current
Crude and Product Tankers
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NB Resale 5-year old 10y old NB Resale 5-year old 10y old
VLCC Suezmax
% u
psid
e
US
Dm
%upside (rhs) 2017/18 cycle (lhs) Current (lhs)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NB Resale 5-year old 10y old NB Resale 5-year old 10y old
LR1 MR
% u
psid
e
US
Dm
%upside (rhs) 2014/15 cycle (lhs) Current (lhs)
Resale, (eco+scrb)
5yr, (eco)
10yr (strd)
15yr, (-10%)
20yr, (-20%)
20
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
$ 10k/d $ 20k/d $ 30k/d $ 40k/d $ 50k/d $ 60k/d $ 70k/d $ 80k/d
USD
m
Resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old 20 yr old Current
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Product Tanker spot earnings VLCC MEG-Far East SeasonalityCrude tanker spot earnings
Crude and Product Tankers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
US
Dk/d
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
US
Dk/d
MR LR2
-5
15
35
55
75
95
115
135
1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951
US
Dk/d
(w
eekly
avg
.)
Avg. 2010-2019 2019 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Note: approx. VLCC demand for 1 mbpd incremental supply from key exporters to key importers
Crude and Product Tankers
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Note: approx. VLCC demand for 1 mbpd incremental supply from key exporters to key importers
Tankers
Crude Products
”Dirty” ”Clean”
Vessel Size
Cargo Size
VLCC200k dwt
2m bbls
Suezmax120-200k dwt
1m
Aframax80-120k dwt
0.5-0.8m bbls
Panamax60-80k dwt
0.4-0.5m bbls
Handysize<60k dwt
<0.35m bbls
LR280-120k dwt
0.5-0.8m bbls
LR160-80k dwt
0.4-0.6m bbls
MR/Handymax25-60k dwt
0.2-0.4m bbls
Handysize<25k dwt
<0.2m bbls
~53
~38
~21
~22
~37
~41
~20
1 mbpd VLCC equivalent demand
Total ships ~850 ~650 ~1 075 ~475 ~4 225 ~400 ~375 ~2 100 ~6 400
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys
Global crude balance (mb/d) Global crude balance - Gap to OECD inventories
Crude and Product Tankers
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22C
rud
e S
up
ply
/ D
em
an
d
Cru
de S
tock b
uild
(d
raw
) m
b/d
Crude Stock Build / (Draw) Crude Demand Crude Supply
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22
Cru
de S
tock b
uild
(d
raw
) m
b/d
Gap to OECD 5-year avg.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys
OECD inventory change vs VLCC rates VLCC ton-miles vs. production growth
Crude and Product Tankers
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Avg. VLCC
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1q00 3q02 1q05 3q07 1q10 3q12 1q15 3q17 1q20
Oil
pro
duction g
row
th
VLC
C t
on-m
ile g
row
th
VLCC ton-miles growth (% y/y) Oil production growth (% y/y)
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys
MEG loadings – Fixture count VLCC loadings, main trades
MEG – China Fixtures
Crude and Product Tankers
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
y/y
ch
an
ge
(%
)
# o
f c
arg
oe
s
MEG Fixture count y/y % change (rhs)
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
US
Dk/d
# o
f c
arg
oe
s
Chinese owner Non-Chinese owner TCE MEG - Feast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
jan.18 mai.18 sep.18 jan.19 mai.19 sep.19 jan.20 mai.20 sep.20 jan.21 mai.21
# s
po
t M
EG
-Ea
st
¤ o
f s
po
t o
the
rs (
ex
. M
EG
-E
as
t)
Atlantic-East MEG-West WAFR-E Americas-E MEG-EAST
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys
US inventories – commercial crudeUS oil production
US Refinery - crude runsUS Crude oil exports
Crude and Product Tankers
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Mm
bl/d
5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Mb
bl/d
5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
510
530
550
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
m b
bls
5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2021 2020
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
m b
bls
5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Notes: Total OECD+Non-OECD
Refinery Crude Throughput seasonality Refinery maintenance outagesRefinery throughput
Crude and Product Tankers
65
70
75
80
85
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des
MM
bb
l
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 2021
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
65
70
75
80
85
90
MM
bb
l
Total (mbpd) 3m ma
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
mb
/d
5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019
2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: EIA, Fearnley
Singapore marginsNW Europe margins
USG marginsMED margins
Crude and Product Tankers
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
Op
era
tin
g M
arg
in
Dubai (Cracking) Dubai (Hydroskimming) Tapis (Cracking) Tapis (Hydroskimming)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
Op
era
tin
g M
arg
in
50/50 HLS/LLS (Cracking) Mars (Cracking) ASCI (Cracking)
50/50 LLS/HLS (Coking) 50/50 Maya/Mars (Coking)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
Op
era
tin
g M
arg
in
Brent Cracking Brent Hydroskimming Urals Cracking Urals Hydroskimming
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21
Op
era
tin
g M
arg
in
Es Sider (Cracking) Es Sider (Hydroskimming) Urals (Cracking) Urals (Hydroskimming)
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Crude and Product Tankers
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
Crude Production
OPEC-12 production Oil production OPEC mbpd M 30.sep.21 27.5 27.1 24.3 0.4 3.2 1.3% 13.3% 5 % 12 %
Saudi-Arabia Production Oil production Saudi-Arabia mbpd M 30.sep.21 9.7 9.6 8.9 0.1 0.8 0.6% 8.4% 13 % 9 %
US Crude Oil Prod. Oil production US mbpd M 31.aug.21 11.5 11.2 9.7 0.3 1.8 2.7% 18.6% 3 % 7 %
Inventories
US Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 418.5 414.0 492.4 4.6 (73.9) 1.1% (15.0%) -10 % -16 %
US Gasoline Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 221.8 221.6 228.2 0.2 (6.4) 0.1% (2.8%) -4 % -5 %
US Destillate Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 129.7 129.3 172.8 0.4 (43.0) 0.3% (24.9%) 0 % -23 %
Crude Import
US Crude Oil Imports, excl. SPR Oil Imports US mbpd M 31.aug.21 6.3 6.4 4.9 (0.1) 1.4 (1.4%) 29.4% 11 % 14 %
China Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports China mbpd M 31.aug.21 10.7 9.9 11.4 0.8 (0.7) 8.0% (6.2%) -4 % -17 %
South Korea Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports S. Korea mbpd M 30.apr.20 2.7 2.8 3.1 (0.1) (0.4) (2.2%) (14.0%) -8 % -10 %
Japan Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports Japan mbpd M 31.aug.21 2.8 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.4 30.9% 15.5% -9 % 6 %
India Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports India mbpd M 31.aug.21 3.8 3.3 3.7 0.5 0.1 15.8% 3.1% -10 % 13 %
Other oil market data
Brent Cont./Backw ard. (3-1m) Commodities Global USD/bl W 02.okt.21 (1.52) (1.73) 0.99 0.21 (2.51) (12.1%) (253.5%) 15 % N/A
NYMEX cracking margins Commodities US USD/bl W 02.okt.21 21.3 18.3 9.3 3.1 12.1 16.7% 130.4% 3 % 116 %
Refinery utilization Commodities US % W 25.sep.21 88.1% 87.5% 75.8% 0.6% 12.3% 0.7% 16.2% 1 % 15 %
Fleet overview
Crude Tanker Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 489.1 490.3 477.4 (1.2) 11.7 (0.2%) 2.5% 1 % 3 %
Crude Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.3% 9.2% 9.0% -8 % -1 %
Crude Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.0 (0.2) 0.3% (2.3%) -2 % -3 %
CRUDE TANKERSAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
Product Exports & Imports
US Petroleum consumption Consumption US m bpd W 25.sep.21 20.4 21.1 17.4 (0.8) 2.9 -3.6% 16.9% 6 % 14 %
US Product Imports Imports US mb/month M 30.jul.21 73.0 82.0 59.0 (9.0) 14.0 (10.9%) 23.8% 12 % 40 %
US Gasoline consumption Consumption US m bpd W 25.sep.21 9.4 8.9 8.5 0.5 0.9 5.7% 10.2% 2 % 8 %
China Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export China mb/month M 31.aug.21 48.8 52.4 45.6 (3.6) 3.2 (6.9%) 7.1% -12 % 20 %
S. Korea Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export S. Korea mb/month M 30.apr.20 67.7 80.1 71.6 (12.3) (3.9) (15.4%) (5.5%) -4 % 13 %
Japan Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export Japan mb/month M 31.aug.21 34.4 30.2 29.6 4.2 4.8 14.1% 16.2% -2 % 13 %
Inventories
US Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 418 542 413 964 492 426 4 578 (73 884) 1.1% (15.0%) -10 % -16 %
US Gasoline Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 221 809 221 616 228 182 193 (6 373) 0.1% (2.8%) -4 % -5 %
US Destillate Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 129 727 129 343 172 758 384 (43 031) 0.3% (24.9%) 0 % -23 %
Fleet overview
Product Tanker Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 44.1 44.1 44.8 (0.0) (0.7) (0.0%) (1.5%) 0 % -1 %
Product Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 6.6% 6.4% 6.9% 0.2% -0.4% 6.4% 6.9% -1 % -4 %
Prod. Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 4.9 4.6 5.0 0.4 (0.1) 7.7% (1.4%) -3 % -3 %
Other data
DOE refinery Utilization Refinery US % W 25.sep.21 88.1% 87.5% 75.8% 0.6% 12.3% 87.5% 75.8% 1 % 15 %
PRODUCT TANKER M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley Note: scrap candidates currently above 20 years + those turning 20 for consecutive years
Fleet Development - SuezmaxesFleet Development - VLCC
Fleet Development (gross deliveries) 25k dwt +Fleet Development - Aframax/ LR2
Crude and Product Tankers
3827
36 3629 31
1928
3953 58
65
49
3123 21
47 4940
68
3727
5
17
3 33
20
-28 -26-34 -28
-3 -1 -3 -9 -13-6
-16 -18-7 -1 -2
-10
-31
-4 -2 -4
-55
-34 -35
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
# o
f ve
ss
els
Delivered Reported under construction Construction not reported Scrapped Sold for demo Scrap candiates, age 20+
18 1424 21 25 23 25 23
14
4537
43 45
178 9
26
51
3126
18 20 17
16
6
-18-24
-15 -13-7 -4 -1
-6 -10 -8
-19
-4 -8-1
-12
-23
-4 -1
-51
-24 -21
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
# o
f ve
ss
els
Delivered Reported under construction Construction not reported Scrapped Sold for demo Scrap candiates, age 20+
2111
32
76
5264
50 5668
94
6954
39
16 1729
5364
50 52
19
35
22
23
2
21
26
-15 -19 -13 -19 -23-13 -8 -7 -10 -14 -17
-24 -24 -23 -20
-4 -5
-25
-42
-5 -4
-79
-28
-72
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
# o
f ve
ss
els
Delivered Reported under construction Construction not reported Scrapped Sold for demo Scrap candiates, age 20+
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
m d
wt
VLCC Suezmax Afra/ LR2 Pana/LR1 MR Handy
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Fearnleys Notes: charter rates from 2008 - 2021
Segment earnings correlation
Crude and Product Tankers
R² = 94%
R² = 92%R² = 97%
R² = 91%
R² = 86%
R² = 97%
5
15
25
35
45
55
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
1y T
C, U
SD
k/d
, L
arg
es
t s
eg
me
nt
1y TC, USDk/d, Smallest segment
VLCC/S'max S'Max/Aframax Aframax/LR2 LR2/LR1 LR1/MR MR/SR
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
Orderbook to fleet - current Orderbook to fleet – Historical (total fleet)
Crude and Product Tankers
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 Jan-20
y/y fleet growth (rhs) OB/Fleet (lhs)
258 mdwt 92 mdwt 73 mdwt 4 mdwt 43 mdwt 29 mdwt
23.6 mdwt
6.5 mdwt 5.3 mdwt
0.0 mdwt
5.6 mdwt
0.2 mdwt
9.2 %
7.0 %7.4 %
0.0 %
13.0 %
0.8 %
80 %
84 %
88 %
92 %
96 %
100 %
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1
dw
t
Current fleet Orderbook OB/Fleet
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Fearnley
Scrapping activity last 24 months Scrapping by year
Crude and Product Tankers
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21
# o
f vessels
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1 MR
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
¤ o
f to
tal
fleet
m d
wt
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1 MR % of fleet
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
Phase out candidates vs orderbook % of scrap candidates vs orderbook
Crude and Product Tankers
16
11
6
24
31
7
14
8
1113 13
21
21
12 16
42
29
14
7
13
12
13
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2020 2021 2022 +20y 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Orderbook Fleet by year build
VLC
Cs
China Korea Japan
35%
27%
22%
39%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
% o
f o
rderb
oo
k p
ast
avg
. scra
p a
ge
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
VLCC scrapping vs market conditions
Crude and Product Tankers
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
US
D/d
¤ o
f vessels
/ avg
. scra
p a
ge
Spot market TCE (rhs) # of VLCCs Avg. scrap age
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Dry Bulk Carriers
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley Note: *Consensus figures
Dry Bulk Carriers
-10%
-10%
-10%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-4%
-4%
-2%
-1%
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%
NMM
GNK
NM
EGLE
GOGL
SB
SBLK
JIN
BEL
DNORD
TOTAL RETURNLast week
-20%
-19%
-16%
-15%
-15%
-11%
-11%
-10%
-3%
0%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
GNK
PANL
GOGL
EGLE
JIN
SB
NMM
SBLK
DNORD
BEL
TOTAL RETURNLast month
53%
66%
125%
127%
133%
135%
138%
146%
156%
161%
255%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
DNORD
PANL
GOGL
BEL
EGLE
GNK
2343
NMM
NM
SBLK
SB
TOTAL RETURNYTD
DRY BULK Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float
Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD Year
2020 Bulkers 2020 NO 135.0 5 % 128.5 NOK 22 339 2.3 49 % -1.2 -3.5 142.0 65.8
Belships BEL NO 15.0 8 % 13.9 NOK 253 418 0.9 26 % -0.7 -5.4 127.0 97.2
Diana Shipping DSX US 5.2 -1 % 5.3 USD 88 464 6.0 70 % -4.5 5.8 172.5 69.1
Eagle Bulk EGLE US 50.0 13 % 44.3 USD 13 596 9.7 92 % -7.3 -10.3 133.2 37.6
Genco GNK US 19.0 11 % 17.2 USD 42 713 11.4 92 % -10.0 -12.0 135.5 65.4
Golden Ocean GOGL US 11.0 14 % 9.6 USD 200 1 932 27.7 60 % -5.7 -11.7 124.9 80.0
Pangaea Logistics Solutions PANL US 5.5 22 % 4.5 USD 44 200 2.0 57 % -11.9 -7.8 66.4 56.3
Scorpio Bulkers SALT US 50.0 210 % 16.1 USD 12 193 0.9 33 % n/a n/a n/a n/a
Seanergy Maritime Holdings SBLK US 1.4 11 % 1.3 USD 182 230 10.6 95 % -10.6 0.8 134.4 -85.6
Average 35 % 607 60 % -5.9 -6.4 128.8 67.4
% Total return, last
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Dry Bulk Carriers
DRY BULK Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV
Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e
2020 Bulkers 2020 NO 128.5 NOK 339 94.3 1.4 1.2 12x 6x 5x 14x 5x 4x 1.1x 2.3x 2.3x 5 % 20 % 22 %
Belships BEL NO 13.9 NOK 418 14.8 0.9 1.0 20x 6x 4x nm 6x 3x 1.2x 1.9x 1.5x 0 % 9 % 15 %
Diana Shipping DSX US 5.3 USD 464 6.5 0.8 0.9 14x 5x 2x nm 7x 2x 0.4x 1.0x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %
Eagle Bulk EGLE US 44.3 USD 596 54.0 0.8 0.9 13x 3x 1x nm 2x 2x 0.5x 0.9x 0.6x 0 % 0 % 0 %
Genco GNK US 17.2 USD 713 21.3 0.8 0.9 7x 4x 3x nm 5x 3x 0.4x 0.8x 0.9x 1 % 2 % 46 %
Golden Ocean GOGL US 9.6 USD 1932 9.3 1.0 1.0 11x 5x 4x nm 5x 4x 0.5x 1.0x 0.9x 0 % 16 % 17 %
Pangaea Logistics Solutions PANL US 4.5 USD 200 8.9 0.5 0.7 7x 4x 2x 9x 2x 1x 0.7x 0.7x 0.5x 1 % 3 % 3 %
Scorpio Bulkers SALT US 16.1 USD 193 26.4 0.5 0.8 33x 7x 7x nm 16x nm 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 1 % 1 % 1 %
Seanergy Maritime Holdings SBLK US 1.3 USD 230 1.6 0.8 0.9 15x 5x 2x nm 4x 2x 0.5x 1.0x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %
EV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B Dividend yield
DRY BULK Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV
Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
2020 Bulkers USD 339 558 219 - 249 467 31 91 99 11 68 76 226 212 203 0.5 3.1 3.4
Belships USD 418 900 231 250 444 926 21 143 184 -17 73 129 247 359 294 -0.1 0.3 0.5
Diana Shipping USD 464 860 309 87 576 972 36 134 259 -34 69 196 337 223 14 -0.4 0.8 2.2
Eagle Bulk USD 596 1 036 395 46 727 1 168 46 311 384 -40 228 306 355 198 -148 -1.0 19.4 22.7
Genco USD 713 1 003 162 128 885 1 175 77 222 298 -9 147 219 270 156 254 -0.2 3.5 5.3
Golden Ocean USD 1 932 3 444 1 418 94 1 863 3 375 151 565 701 -11 410 539 1 064 1 164 874 -0.1 2.1 2.7
Pangaea Logistics Solutions USD 200 462 185 76 395 656 39 121 176 13 90 144 111 214 64 0.3 2.1 3.3
Scorpio Bulkers USD 193 878 654 30 389 1 073 20 94 80 -68 12 -0 454 424 386 -6.9 1.0 -0.0
Seanergy Maritime Holdings USD 230 451 179 43 301 522 15 87 134 -23 54 103 188 160 41 -0.8 0.3 0.6
EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley Note: Includes DNORD/ NMM tanker/ container fleet and PANL logistics business valued at 4x EV/ EBITDA
Dry Bulk Carriers
Dry Bulk
2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
Share price (local) 132.0 14.0 5.4 47.0 18.8 9.9 30.3 5.0 22.6 1.3
Mkt. Cap (fully dil.) 343 415 480 633 781 1 990 933 222 2 306 230
Net liabilities 219 516 396 440 290 1 636 1 918 261 1 327 222
EV 561 931 876 1 073 1 071 3 627 2 851 484 3 632 451
Fleet value (USDm) 2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
Fleet value 467 867 963 1167 1175 3375 4524 562 3631 512
Time Charter adjustmeents 1 -364 94
Total f leet value 467 867 963 1167 1175 3376 4160 656 3631 512
New castlemax 467 163 720 837
Capesize 348 575 1739 50 688 512
Post-Panamax 120 21 176 177
Kamsarmax 140 877 174 986
Panamax 192 220 258 151 28
Ultramax 787 678 402 58 28 90 536
Supramax 80 489 199 54 146 319
Handymax
Handysize
Other vessels 60
Other assets/investments* 0 94 9 0 241 10
GAV 467 961 972 1168 1175 3376 4401 656 3631 522
Net liabilities -219 -516 -396 -440 -290 -1636 -1918 -261 -1327 -222
NAV 249 445 576 727 885 1740 2483 395 2304 301
NAV per share 95.8 15.0 6.5 54.0 21.3 8.7 80.5 8.9 22.5 1.6
P/NAV 1.38x 0.93x 0.83x 0.87x 0.88x 1.14x 0.38x 0.56x 1.00x 0.76x
EV/GAV 1.20x 0.97x 0.90x 0.92x 0.91x 1.07x 0.65x 0.74x 1.00x 0.86x
LTV 0.47x 0.60x 0.41x 0.38x 0.25x 0.48x 0.42x 0.46x 0.37x 0.27x
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley Not all companies own Capesizes. For illustrative purposes only
Sensitivity to Δ in steel values -10% Δ in steel valuesImplied Capesize resale
LTV (%)Fleet overview
Dry Bulk Carriers
72
5854 55 55
64
3944
60
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
US
Dm
19 %19 %
17 %16 %
13 %
19 %18 %
14 %16 %
17 %
0 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
% c
han
ge t
o N
AV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
# o
f vessels
Total sailing Total NBs
0.47x
0.60x
0.41x0.38x
0.25x
0.48x
0.42x0.46x
0.37x
0.27x
0.00x
0.10x
0.20x
0.30x
0.40x
0.50x
0.60x
0.70x
2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP
LT
V
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Dry bulk spot rates Capesize 5 TC avg. rate
Dry Bulk Carriers
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
US
D/d
ay
Capesize Panamax Supramax
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
Dk/d
5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021 Last (14.okt)
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Fearnley
Dry Bulk Carriers
Iron Ore33 %
Coal27 %
Grains10 %
Minor Bulks30 %
Iron ore
Coal
Grains
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, Baltic Exchange
Average monthly BDI '85-'17
Dry Bulk Carriers
1 550
1 600
1 650
1 700
1 750
1 800
1 850
1 900
1 950
2 000
2 050
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average'85-'17
Slowing industrial
production ahead of
Chinese New Year
Increasing Chinese industrial output and
Northern Hemisphere grain season
Lower energy demand during the
summer season
Chinese re-stocking after Chinese
New Year
Latin America grain season
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Trade growthHistorical trade mix - (million tonnes)
Dry bulk trade by commodity
Dry Bulk Carriers
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Iron ore Coking coal Thermal coal Minor bulk Grains
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Total dry bulk trade
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Iron ore Coking coal Thermal coal Minor bulk Grains
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Dry Bulk Carriers
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
Key Economic Data
Chinese I.P. Ind. Prod. China % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.3% 6.4% 5.6% -1.1% -0.3% 6.4% 5.6% -39 % 32 %
China Manufacturing PMI PMI China Index, sa M 30.sep.21 49.6 50.1 51.5 (0.5) (1.9) (1.0%) (3.7%) -2 % -2 %
China CEMAC Leading Economic Index Leading indicator China Index M 30.jul.21 99.6 100.4 103.4 (0.8) (3.8) (0.8%) (3.7%) -4 % -2 %
China Real Estate Climate Index Housing market China Index M 31.aug.21 100.9 101.0 100.4 (0.1) 0.5 (0.1%) 0.5% 0 % 1 %
Beijing 2. hand House Prices Housing prices China % YoY M 31.aug.21 10.4% 10.7% 3.6% -0.3% 6.8% 10.7% 3.6% 6 % 273 %
Chinese electricity production Other macro China KWh bn M 31.aug.21 738.4 758.6 723.8 (20.3) 14.5 (2.7%) 2.0% 13 % 7 %
India I.P. Ind. Prod. India % YoY M 30.jul.21 11.5% 13.6% -10.5% -2.1% 22.0% 13.6% (10.5%) -65 % N/A
Steel Trade Data
China Crude steel prod. Steel market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 83 87 95 (3.6) (11.6) (4.1%) (12.2%) -9 % -6 %
China Apparent Steel Demand Steel market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 79 82 93 (2.9) (14.2) (3.6%) (15.2%) -9 % -9 %
China Steel Rebar (25mm) Price Commodity Prices China USD/ton W 25.sep.21 881 858 544 23.0 337.0 2.7% 61.9% 2 % 52 %
Iron Ore Trade Data
China Iron Ore imports Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 97.5 88.5 100.4 9.0 (2.9) 10.1% (2.9%) -5 % -12 %
China Iron Ore imp., Brazil Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 20.5 18.5 23.5 2.0 (3.0) 10.6% (12.9%) 2 % -12 %
China Iron Ore imp., Australia Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 61.0 54.3 55.7 6.7 5.3 12.3% 9.4% -5 % -10 %
China Iron Ore Port Inventories Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 11.6 11.5 9.9 0.1 1.7 1.1% 17.3% -3 % 17 %
China Iron Ore Imp. Price (Qing.) Commodity Prices China USD/ton W 25.sep.21 101 101 123 - (22.0) 0.0% (17.9%) -28 % 31 %
Coal Trade Data
Chinese Coal Imports Coal market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 28.1 30.2 20.7 (2.1) 7.4 (7.1%) 35.8% 24 % 20 %
China Coal Imports Australia Coal market China mill tons M 30.nov.20 0.7 2.5 4.5 (1.9) (3.9) (74.1%) (85.5%) -66 % -60 %
Australia Coal Export Coal market Australia mill tons M 30.jul.21 32.3 31.0 28.3 1.3 4.1 4.1% 14.4% 10 % 4 %
New castle 1m Coal Futures Commodity Prices Australia USD/ton W 02.okt.21 228 182 58 46.5 170.5 25.6% 296.2% 51 % 233 %
Grain Trade Data
China soy bean imports Grain market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 9.5 8.7 9.6 0.8 (0.1) 9.4% (1.2%) 16 % -6 %
Other Bulk Trade Data
Brazil Sugar, Paper & Wood Other Commodities Brazil mill tons M 28.feb.20 19.6 19.6 28.3 (0.0) (8.6) (0.0%) (30.5%) -30 % -31 %
Fleet overview
Dry Bulk Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 805.2 804.2 780.6 1.0 24.6 0.1% 3.2% 1 % 3 %
Dry Bulk Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 7.8% 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 0.2% 7.6% 7.6% 4 % -6 %
Dry Bulk Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.3 7.2 7.4 0.1 (0.0) 2.0% (0.7%) -1 % -1 %
New castle Shipm. w aiting time Fleet Australia Days/ship W 27.feb.21 6.2 6.6 5.2 (0.4) 1.0 (5.3%) 19.9% 247 % 117 %
Rate Indexes
Baltic Dry Index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 5 202 4 644 2 020 558 3 182 12.0% 157.5% 31 % 159 %
Capesize Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 9 066 7 393 3 987 1 673 5 079 22.6% 127.4% 44 % 130 %
Panamax Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 3 992 4 012 1 373 (20) 2 619 (0.5%) 190.8% 15 % 154 %
Supramax Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 3 383 3 359 991 24 2 392 0.7% 241.4% 26 % 240 %
DRY BULKAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
Fleet by year builtDry bulk fleet development
Current fleet by vessel size (by mdwt)
Dry Bulk Carriers
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 2022E
m d
wt
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize
0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
5%
14%
36%
75%
80%
84%
88%
94%
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
70-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16-18 18 19 20 21 YTD
m d
wt
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize Accumulated share of fleet (rhs)
40 %
25 %
23 %
12 %
Cape
Pana
Supramax
Handysize
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, Bloomberg
Orderbook/fleet per segmentOverall orderbook/fleet ratio
Historical contractingContracting activity last 24 months
Dry Bulk Carriers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Ord
er
bo
ok
to
fle
et
rati
o (
%)
y/y fleet growth OB/ fleet ratio
10%
7%
6%
3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize
y/y
fle
et
gro
wth
(%)
m d
wt
Current fleet Orderbook Orderbook to fleet ratio (rhs)
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
mar. 19 jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21
m d
wt
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
m d
wt
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize % of fleet
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
0-4 years, 2072, 16%
5-9 years, 4038, 31%
10-14 years, 4143, 31%
15-20 years, 1708, 13%
+20 years, 1245, 9%
0-4 years
5-9 years
10-14 years
15-20 years
+20 years
Scrapping activity per year
Scrapping last 24 months Fleet age composition (no. ships and %)
Dry Bulk Carriers
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
¤ o
f to
tal
fleet
# o
f vessels
scra
pp
ed
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize % of fleet
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
mar. 19 jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21
m d
wt
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Average newbuilding prices Capesize values Yearly averages
Dry Bulk Carriers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
US
Dm
Cape Pana Supramax Handysize
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
Dm
NB Resale 5-year old 10-year old 15-year old 20-year old
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Containers and Liners
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Source: Factset, Fearnley
Containers and Liners
-10%
-10%
-8%
-7%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-3%
-2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
Evergreen
Yang Ming
Wan Hai
HMM
MPCC
CMRE
Maersk
OOIL
MOL
K-Line
DAC
HLAG
ZIM
ATCO
NYK
GSL
TOTAL RETURNLast week
-31%
-28%
-27%
-26%
-26%
-25%
-25%
-24%
-22%
-22%
-21%
-17%
-17%
-16%
-13%
-11%
-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
K-Line
MOL
ZIM
MPCC
NYK
OOIL
Evergreen
Yang Ming
HLAG
HMM
Wan Hai
Maersk
DAC
CMRE
GSL
ATCO
TOTAL RETURNLast month
24%
38%
72%
89%
94%
100%
115%
120%
136%
137%
195%
216%
228%
232%
237%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Maersk
ATCO
CMRE
GSL
HLAG
OOIL
HMM
MOL
K-Line
Evergreen
MPCC
Yang Ming
NYK
DAC
Wan Hai
TOTAL RETURNYTD
CONTAINER Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float
Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD Year
Atlas Corp ATCO-US 21.0 44 % 14.6 USD 248 3 605 10.7 31 % 0.8 -3.1 37.7 8.6
Danaos Corporation CMRE US 90.0 28 % 70.1 USD 20 1 433 25.3 54 % -1.2 -16.1 231.5 674.0
Global Ship Lease GSL US 16.0 -27 % 22.0 USD 36 795 16.7 82 % 2.6 9.2 89.5 155.2
Hapag-Lloyd HLAG DE n/a n/a 175.1 EUR 176 35 717 6.8 4 % -0.7 -9.3 94.3 134.9
Maersk MAERSKB DC 18 000 9 % 16 500 DKK 19 49 765 69.3 61 % -3.7 -7.7 23.8 76.7
MPC Container MPCC NO 30.0 61 % 18.7 NOK 444 986 11.1 57 % -5.0 -25.1 195.3 76.2
OOIL 316 HK 78.7 -30 % 112.5 HKD 626 9 051 28.1 15 % -11.2 -29.6 99.9 333.8
ZIM ZIM 67.0 53 % 43.9 USD 120 5 287 109.0 52 % -0.2 -9.1 n/a n/a
Average 20% 13 330 45 % -2.3 -11.3 110.3 208.5
% Total return, last
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Containers and Liners
CONTAINER Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV
Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Atlas Corp ATCO-US 14.6 USD 3605 20.8 0.7 0.9 9x 10x nm 8x 13x nm 0.7x 1.0x nm 6 % 3 % nm
Danaos Corporation CMRE US 70.1 USD 1433 95.2 0.7 0.9 6x 6x 3x 3x 5x 3x 0.4x 0.8x 0.6x 0 % 3 % 4 %
Global Ship Lease GSL US 22.0 USD 795 23.8 0.9 1.0 7x 7x 5x 8x 7x 5x 0.8x 1.3x 1.0x 0 % 2 % 2 %
Hapag-Lloyd HLAG DE 175.1 EUR 35717
Maersk MAERSKB DC 16500.0 DKK 49765 16282 1.0 1.0 7x 3x 6x 19x 3x 24x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x 2 % 14 % 2 %
MPC Container MPCC NO 18.7 NOK 986 27.0 0.7 0.7 39x 5x 2x nm 6x 3x 0.8x 1.8x 1.4x 0 % 0 % 17 %
OOIL 316 HK 112.5 HKD 9051 26.4 4.3 2.4
ZIM ZIM 43.9 USD 5287 0.0 0.8 0.9 1x 1x 1x 3x 1.5x 1.4x 31 % 12 %
Average 13330 1.3 1.1 13x 4x 4x 11x 4x 8x 1.0x 1.3x 1.2x 0 % 8 % 8 %
EV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B Dividend yield
CONTAINER Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV
Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Atlas Corp USD 3 605 14 166 5 938 4 623 5 155 15 715 930 986 877 312 284 119 4 958 5 391 5 797 1.3 1.1 0.5
Danaos Corporation USD 1 433 2 915 1 482 - 1 947 3 429 312 467 632 159 297 443 1 397 1 185 673 6.6 14.5 21.6
Global Ship Lease USD 795 1 686 774 116 860 1 750 160 216 249 45 115 152 688 608 436 1.48 3.24 4.21
Hapag-Lloyd EUR 35 717 35 717 - - -
Maersk USD 49 765 59 844 7 704 2 375 51 673 61 752 8 331 19 522 8 713 2 393 14 157 1 997 9 508 6 368 5 187 120.82 738.69 108.47
MPC Container USD 986 1 293 193 115 1 425 1 732 14 220 404 -56 147 338 238 154 -43 -0.28 0.36 0.76
OOIL USD 9 051 12 035 2 319 664 2 125 5 109 FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm
ZIM USD 5 287 6 183 897 - 6 333 7 230 992 5 073 2 892 536 3 483 1 583 1 263 -905 -1 329 5.1 29.4 13.1
Average 8 668 10 775 1 699 409 8 088 11 652 1 644 4 277 2 578 517 3 057 903 2 217 1 248 985 22.4 131.7 29.6
EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Transpacific trades blended spotSCFI/CCFI blended spot
Charter market – Post Panamaxes 6-12m TCCharter market – Feeders and narrow beam 6-12m TC
Containers and Liners
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
jan. 18 apr. 18 jul. 18 okt. 18 jan. 19 apr. 19 jul. 19 okt. 19 jan. 20 apr. 20 jul. 20 okt. 20 jan. 21
US
D/t
eu
)
Feeder Containership 1700 teu grd 6-12 Month Timecharter RateFeeder Containership 2750 teu gls 6-12 Month Timecharter RateNarrow Beam Containership 4400 teu gls 6-12 Month Timecharter Rate
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan. 19 apr. 19 jul. 19 okt. 19 jan. 20 apr. 20 jul. 20 okt. 20 jan. 21 apr. 21 jul. 21
US
D/t
eu
)
6,8k teu 8,25k teu
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
USD
/FEU
CCFI Index SCFI Index
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21
USD
/FEU
China - NAm EC China - Nam WC
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Average sector EBIT margin
Containers and Liners
Liner EBIT margin rank
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OOIL OOIL CMA CGM Maersk Maersk Maersk Wan Hai CMA CGM Maersk Maersk ZIM
15 % 3 % 6 % 6 % 9 % 6 % 3 % 7 % 5 % 7 % 15 %
OOIL HLAG Wan Hai CMA CGM Wan Hai CMA CGM HLAG ZIM HLAG HLAG Evergreen
15 % 2 % 4 % 4 % 8 % 6 % 1 % 5 % 4 % 6 % 15 %
Wan Hai CMA CGM OOIL Wan Hai CMA CGM OOIL CMA CGM Wan Hai CMA CGM CMA CGM Maersk
14 % 1 % 4 % 4 % 5 % 5 % 0 % 5 % 2 % 5 % 14 %
Maersk Wan Hai Maersk K-Line OOIL Wan Hai Maersk HLAG CSCL OOIL Wan Hai
12 % 0 % 2 % 2 % 4 % 5 % -2 % 4 % 2 % 5 % 14 %
HMM Maersk HLAG OOIL K-Line HLAG ZIM OOIL Wan Hai CSCL CMA CGM
11 % -2 % 0 % 1 % 3 % 4 % -2 % 3 % 2 % 5 % 13 %
Yang Ming Mitsui OSK Evergreen HLAG CSCL ZIM NYK Evergreen OOIL ZIM OOIL
11 % -3 % -2 % 1 % 2 % 4 % -3 % 3 % 1 % 4 % 13 %
Evergreen HMM K-Line NYK Hanjin Hanjin OOIL Maersk ZIM Wan Hai Yang Ming
10 % -5 % -2 % -1 % 2 % 2 % -4 % 3 % 1 % 4 % 11 %
HLAG Evergreen ZIM Mitsui OSK Evergreen NYK Mitsui OSK CSCL Evergreen Evergreen HLAG
9 % -5 % -2 % -3 % 1 % 1 % -6 % 2 % 0 % 3 % 11 %
CSCL NOL Hanjin ZIM ZIM K-Line K-Line NYK Yang Ming Yang Ming HMM
8 % -6 % -3 % -3 % 1 % 0 % -6 % 2 % -5 % 0 % 11 %
Hanjin Hanjin Mitsui OSK NOL NYK NOL NOL Yang Ming HMM HMM
7 % -7 % -3 % -3 % 1 % -2 % -7 % 0 % -5 % -7 %
NOL ZIM CSCL HMM Yang Ming Evergreen Yang Ming K-Line
6 % -7 % -3 % -3 % 0 % -3 % -8 % 0 %
K-Line NYK NOL Evergreen HMM CSCL CSCL Mitsui OSK
5 % -8 % -3 % -4 % -1 % -3 % -9 % -1 %
NYK K-Line Yang Ming Hanjin HLAG Mitsui OSK Evergreen HMM
5 % -9 % -4 % -4 % -2 % -4 % -10 % -7 %
Mitsui OSK Yang Ming HMM CSCL NOL HMM Hanjin
4 % -9 % -5 % -6 % -2 % -5 % -17 %
ZIM CSCL NYK Yang Ming Mitsui OSK Yang Ming HMM
2 % -15 % -5 % -8 % -3 % -6 % -19 %
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Clarkson, Fearnley
Quarterly container throughput growth (y-o-y)
Containers and Liners
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1q08 4q08 3q09 2q10 1q11 4q11 3q12 2q13 1q14 4q14 3q15 2q16 1q17 4q17 3q18 2q19 1q20 4q20 3Q21
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
1996 1998 2001 2005 2009 2012 2015 2017 2020
THE ALLIANCE THE ALLIANCEGLOBAL ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE G6 ALLIANCE G6 ALLIANCE
APL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL Hanjin ONE
MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL Yang Ming
Nedlloyd HMM HMM HMM HMM HMM HMM K-Line Hapaq-Lloyd
OOCL Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd NYK HMM
MISC GRAND ALLIANCE GRAND ALLIANCE II GRAND ALLIANCE III GRAND ALLIANCE IV OOCL OOCL Yang Ming
OCEAN ALLIANCE
Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd NYK NYK Hapaq-Lloyd
GLOBAL ALLIANCE P&O Nedlloyd P&O Nedlloyd OOCL NYK
CYKH
OCEAN ALLIANCEHapaq-Lloyd OOCL OOCL MISC OOCL CYKHE
NYK MISC MISC Hanjin K-Line CMA CGM
NOL K-Line Yang Ming COSCO/OOCL
P&OCL CYK CYKH CYKH CYKH Yang Ming COSCO Evergreen
K-Line Hanjin Hanjin Hanjin Hanjin COSCO Evergreen
2M ALLIANCE
Yang Ming K-Line K-Line K-Line K-Line Evergreen
2M ALLIANCE
COSCO Yang Ming Yang Ming Yang Ming Yang Ming
2M ALLIANCECOSCO COSCO COSCO COSCO
UNITED ALLIANCE
MSC/CMA CGM
MSC MSC MSC
Hanjin Maersk Line Maersk Line Maersk Line/Hamburg Süd
Cho Yang MSC
OCEAN THREEUSAC CMA CGM
MAERSK
CMA CGM
China Shipping
MAERSK UASC
Sea-Land Sea-Land
NO ALLIANCE
MSC MSC MSC MSC MSC MSC
CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM
Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen
Maersk SeaLand Maersk SeaLand Maersk SeaLand
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Containers and Liners
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Containers and Liners
Demand projections Measure 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E
Transpacific teu (m) 20.2 21.1 20.5 18.4 20.3 20.8 20.8 21.7 23.1 23.7 25.1 26.0 26.8 26.2 27.4 29.5 30.0
Far East-Europe teu (m) 14.5 16.9 16.8 17.3 19.6 20.4 20.1 21.2 22.2 21.9 22.7 23.8 23.8 24.8 24.0 25.2 25.8
Transatlantic teu (m) 6.1 6.5 6.3 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.1 7.7 8.2 8.6
Non-mainlane East-West teu (m) 11.7 12.8 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.5 15.7 17.8 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.2 21.2 20.0 21.4 22.6
North-South teu (m) 20.1 20.6 22.0 20.7 23.5 27.2 27.6 28.9 28.1 28.0 28.3 30.2 31.9 32.1 31.8 33.8 34.9
Intra regional teu (m) 44.9 53.1 56.7 48.4 50.7 55.3 59.1 62.8 66.5 68.6 72.3 77.0 81.4 84.3 83.6 88.3 92.5
Total trade teu (m) 117.6 131.0 136.6 124.7 134.6 144.5 149.2 156.6 164.4 167.6 175.2 185.1 193.0 196.8 194.5 206.5 214.3
Demand growth % 11.2 % 11.5 % 4.2 % -8.7 % 7.9 % 7.4 % 3.3 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 2.0 % 4.5 % 5.7 % 4.3 % 2.0 % -1.2 % 6.2 % 3.8 %
Weight
Transpacific 17 % 16 % 15 % 15 % 15 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 13 % 14 % 14 % 14 %
Far East-Europe 12 % 13 % 12 % 14 % 15 % 14 % 13 % 14 % 14 % 13 % 13 % 13 % 12 % 13 % 12 % 12 % 12 %
Transatlantic 5 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 %
Non-mainlane East-West 10 % 10 % 10 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 10 % 10 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 10 % 10 % 11 %
North-South 17 % 16 % 16 % 17 % 17 % 19 % 18 % 18 % 17 % 17 % 16 % 16 % 17 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 %
Intra regional 38 % 41 % 42 % 39 % 38 % 38 % 40 % 40 % 40 % 41 % 41 % 42 % 42 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 %
Sum/ Total 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
y/y growth
Transpacific 10 % 4 % -3 % -10 % 10 % 2 % 0 % 4 % 6 % 3 % 6 % 4 % 3 % -2 % 5 % 8 % 1 %
Far East-Europe 19 % 16 % -1 % 3 % 13 % 4 % -1 % 5 % 5 % -2 % 4 % 5 % 0 % 4 % -3 % 5 % 2 %
Transatlantic 3 % 6 % -3 % -16 % 11 % 3 % 0 % 3 % 6 % 2 % 2 % 7 % 6 % 3 % -6 % 7 % 4 %
Non-mainlane East-West 8 % 9 % 12 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 5 % 2 % 14 % 5 % 6 % 5 % 3 % 0 % -6 % 7 % 5 %
North-South 6 % 2 % 7 % -6 % 14 % 16 % 1 % 5 % -3 % 0 % 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % -1 % 6 % 3 %
Intra regional 14 % 18 % 7 % -15 % 5 % 9 % 7 % 6 % 6 % 3 % 5 % 6 % 6 % 3 % -1 % 6 % 5 %
World 11 % 11 % 4 % -9 % 8 % 7 % 3 % 5 % 5 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 4 % 2 % -1 % 6 % 4 %
Sources: SIN, Fearnley
5%
-3%-6% -6%
-1% -1% -1%
8%5%
7% 7% 6% 6% 6%
3% 2%4% 4% 3%
5%4%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Transpacific Far East-Europe Transatlantic Non-mainlane East-West North-South Intra regional World
2020 2021E 5y average
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Containers and Liners
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
Trade Statistics
Chinese exports Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 294.3 282.7 234.4 11.7 59.9 4.1% 25.6% 12 % 25 %
Chinese exports to North Am. Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 56 54 49 2 7 3.6% 14.7% 19 % 15 %
Chinese exports to Europe Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 63 59 51 4 12 7.5% 22.7% 15 % 21 %
Japan Exports Exports Japan USDbn M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 49.5 (6.9) 11 (10.4%) 21.5% 1 % 32 %
South Korea Exports Exports S. Korea USDbn M 30.sep.21 55.8 53.2 47.8 2.6 8.0 4.9% 16.7% 5 % 26 %
Taiw an Exports Exports Taiw an USDbn M 31.aug.21 39.6 38.0 31.2 1.6 8 4.2% 26.9% 5 % 32 %
US Imports USDbn Imports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 283 283 232 (0) 51 (0.2%) 22.1% 4 % 31 %
Euro Imports Imports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 185 192 158 (7) 27 (3.5%) 17.1% 3 % 26 %
Retail data
US Retail sales ex-auto Retail Sector US % YoY M 31.aug.21 16.2% 15.2% 2.8% 1.0% 13.4% 15.2% 2.8% -45 % 828 %
Eurozone Retail sales Retail Sector Eurozone % YoY M 30.jul.21 3.1% 5.4% 0.5% -2.3% 2.6% 5.4% 0.5% -53 % N/A
UK Retail sales ex-food Retail Sector UK % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.2% 7.7% -3.3% -2.5% 8.5% 7.7% (3.3%) -81 % N/A
German retail sales ex-auto/gas Retail Sector Germany % YoY M 31.aug.21 0.5% 0.7% 8.1% -0.2% -7.6% 0.7% 8.1% -59 % -59 %
Spain Retail Sales Retail sector Spain % YoY M 31.aug.21 -0.1% 0.1% -4.7% -0.2% 4.6% 0.1% (4.7%) -98 % N/A
Italy Retail Sales Retail sector Italy % YoY M 30.jul.21 -1.2% 0.6% -1.1% -1.8% -0.1% 0.6% (1.1%) -93 % -98 %
Inventory Data
US Retail Inventory-to-Sales Business condition US Factor M 30.jul.21 1.11 1.08 1.21 0.03 (0.10) 2.8% (8.3%) -4 % -13 %
US Wholesale Inventory-to-Sales Business condition US Factor M 30.jul.21 1.20 1.22 1.33 (0.02) (0.13) (1.6%) (9.8%) -1 % -15 %
Consumer Confidence
US Consumer confid. Consumer confid. US Index M 30.sep.21 109.3 115.2 101.3 (5.9) 8.0 (5.1%) 7.9% -5 % 25 %
US ISM Non-Manuf. Expectation US Index M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 62.6 (6.9) (2.5) (10.3%) (4.0%) -5 % -1 %
Euro Consumer confid. Retail Euro Index M 30.sep.21 (4.0) (5.3) (13.6) 1.3 9.6 (24.5%) (70.6%) -17 % -68 %
Euro ZEW Index Exp. Business condition Euro Index M 30.sep.21 31.1 42.7 73.9 (11.6) (42.8) (27.2%) (58%) -42 % -32 %
Spain Consumer Conf. Consumer confid. Spain Index M 30.sep.21 (8.6) (8.5) (26.3) (0.1) 17.7 1.2% (67.3%) -18 % -66 %
UK GfK Consumer confid. Consumer confid. UK Index M 30.sep.21 (13.0) (8.0) (25.0) (5.0) 12.0 62.5% (48.0%) -65 %
Other Key Data
US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615 1 554 1 376 61 239 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %
US Intermod. Cont. Carloads Carloads US 000 units W 25.sep.21 239.1 234.8 224.3 4 15 1.8% 6.6% -3 % 5 %
Port volumes
Hong Kong Port volumes HK 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 1 508 1 566 1 573 (58) (65) (3.7%) (4.1%) -2 % -3 %
Shanghai Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 4 320 3 700 3 840 620 480 16.8% 12.5% 6 % 7 %
Shenzhen Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 2 540 2 380 2 620 160 (80) 6.7% (3.1%) -5 % -6 %
Shanghai Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 4 320 3 700 3 840 620 480 16.8% 12.5% 6 % 7 %
Los Angeles imports Port volumes US TEUs M 31.aug.21 486 469 516 16 (31) 3.5% (5.9%) -6 % 6 %
Long Beach imports Port volumes US TEUs M 31.aug.21 407 383 365 24 43 6.4% 11.7% -6 % 10 %
New York imports Port volumes US TEUs M 30.jul.21 394 387 326 7 68 1.9% 20.8% 8 % 37 %
Fleet overview
Container Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 289.2 289.0 278.5 0.2 10.7 0.1% 3.8% 1 % 4 %
Container Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 20.1% 20.0% 8.1% 0.2% 12.0% 20.0% 8.1% 21 % 114 %
Container Fleet avg. Speed Index Total f leet Global Index W 02.okt.21 9.0 9.0 8.8 (0.1) 0.1 (0.7%) 1.6% 0 % 0 %
Fleet at Anchor 5k TEU+ Global # vessels W 02.okt.21 220 236 134 (16) 86 (6.8%) 64.2% 12 % 58 %
Rate and costs
SCFI Box rate China Index W 25.sep.21 4 644 4 623 1 422 21 3 222 0.5% 226.6% 27 % 259 %
CCFI Box rate China Index W 25.sep.21 3 235 3 157 1 007 78 2 228 2.5% 221.1% 33 % 232 %
HK-LA (Drew ry) Box rate China USD/FEU W 02.okt.21 7 961 7 961 4 066 - 3 895 0.0% 95.8% 17 % 129 %
ConTex TC Index Charter rate Global Index W 25.sep.21 3 170 3 146 452 24 2 718 0.8% 601.3% 91 % 615 %
4250 TEU Charter rate Charter rate Global USD/day W 25.sep.21 92 690 92 160 15 582 530 77 108 0.6% 494.9% 70 % 567 %
CONTAINERAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Orderbook to fleetFleet development (kTeu)
Container fleet by year builtContainer fleet by vessel size (sailing vessels)
Containers and Liners
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2022E
'10
00
te
u
<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu
19 %
30 %26 %
25 %
<3k teu
3-7,99k teu
8-11,99k teu
12k+ teu
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
70-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16 17
¤ o
f ve
ss
els
<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
16 %
18 %
20 %
jan. 05 jul. 07 jan. 10 jul. 12 jan. 15 jul. 17 jan. 20
Ord
er
bo
ok
to
fle
et
rati
o (
%)
y/y fleet growth OB/ fleet ratio
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Clarkson, Fearnley
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
¤ o
f to
tal
fleet
'1000 t
eu
<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu % of fleet
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
% o
f fl
eet
'1000 t
eu
<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu Total
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Delivered 2021YTD
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
'10
00
te
u
<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu
Container orderbook by vessel size Scrapping
Contracting
Containers and Liners
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Gas Carriers (LNG/LPG)
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Gas Carriers
Gas coverage Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float
Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD Year
Aw ilco LNG ALNG NO 4.6 20 % 3.8 NOK 133 61 0.4 n/a -2.8 44.9 144.6 20.0
Flex LNG FLNG NO 150.0 -7 % 161.0 NOK 53 1 023 3.2 52 % -2.4 25.7 126.8 89.4
GasLog Partners GLOP US 4.0 -13 % 4.6 USD 48 218 1.8 69 % -1.7 9.0 69.5 -65.3
Golar LNG GLNG US 18.0 33 % 13.5 USD 98 1 324 13.6 85 % 1.5 20.4 40.5 -4.8
HMLP HMLPG US 20.0 268 % 5.4 USD 33 181 3.3 53 % 4.4 25.7 -55.8 -48.3
Teekay LNG TGP US 16.0 -7 % 17.1 USD 88 1 515 11.2 58 % -0.1 23.2 56.7 21.4
Dorian LPG LPG US 15.0 20 % 12.5 USD 48 597 4.3 86 % -2.3 -5.5 10.7 -12.9
Avance Gas AVANCE NO 50.0 26 % 39.6 NOK 77 360 2.4 28 % -7.8 -9.1 1.7 -10.6
BW LPG BWLPG NO 78.0 76 % 44.3 NOK 142 748 1.9 57 % -6.4 -4.4 -16.0 -21.5
Navigator Gas NVGS US 14.0 61 % 8.7 USD 56 486 0.5 12 % -0.3 -1.5 -20.8 -35.6
Average 48 % 651 55 % -1.8 12.9 35.8 -6.8
% Total return, last
-8%
-7%
-5%
-4%
-2%
-2%
-1%
0%
0%
3%
4%
9%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
AVANCE
BWLPG
GASS
ALNG
FLNG
LPG
NVGS
GLNG
GLNG
EXM
MISC
HMLP
TOTAL RETURNLast week
-13%
-9%
-3%
-2%
-1%
5%
5%
5%
15%
16%
19%
23%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
ALNG
AVANCE
GASS
NVGS
BWLPG
TGP
LPG
MISC
FLNG
GLNG
HMLP
EXM
TOTAL RETURNLast month
-56%
-21%
-16%
2%
9%
10%
11%
40%
57%
76%
127%
145%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
HMLP
NVGS
BWLPG
AVANCE
MISC
GASS
LPG
GLNG
TGP
EXM
FLNG
ALNG
TOTAL RETURNYTD
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Gas Carriers
GAS Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV
Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Aw ilco LNG USD 61 300 239 - 15 254 18 37 n/a -7 14 n/a 231 204 192 -0.05 0.11 n/a
Flex LNG USD 1 023 2 553 1 530 - 999 2 529 117 242 213 36 121 94 1 273 1 392 1 322 0.7 2.3 1.8
GasLog Partners USD 218 1 876 1 300 359 238 1 897 232 198 175 76 42 22 1 193 1 087 1 001 1.5 0.9 0.5
Golar LNG USD 1 324 2 875 1 551 - 1 739 3 290 270 240 228 -10 -76 -83 2 123 2 064 2 179 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8
HMLP USD 181 1 014 463 370 474 1 307 107 101 101 48 49 52 415 408 397 1.5 1.5 1.6
Teekay LNG USD 1 515 6 949 3 031 2 403 1 040 6 474 407 387 365 236 219 222 2 548 2 369 2 183 2.7 2.5 2.5
Dorian LPG USD 597 1 142 431 114 918 1 463 187 241 160 91 144 66 490 456 354 1.8 3.3 1.5
Avance Gas USD 360 1 075 273 442 522 1 237 95 128 110 31 72 57 341 362 460 0.5 1.0 0.7
BW LPG USD 748 1 441 693 - 1 437 2 130 404 370 315 215 188 135 956 878 702 1.5 1.3 1.0
Navigator Gas USD 486 1 367 839 42 767 1 648 148 174 181 35 75 85 742 612 472 0.6 1.4 1.5
Average 522 1 868 985 362 856 2 203 211 228 229 60 68 64 1 238 1 249 1 170 0.8 1.1 1.0
EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS
GAS
FS est vs. Consensus Currency 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Aw ilco LNG USD 18 37 23 18 41 30 3 % -9 % -25 % -0.05 0.11 0.01 -0.05 0.13 0.06 6 % -19 % -87 %
Flex LNG USD 117 242 213 117 248 258 0 % -2 % -18 % 0.67 2.26 1.76 0.59 2.29 2.44 14 % -1 % -28 %
GasLog Partners USD 232 198 175 231 222 219 1 % -11 % -20 % 1.55 0.88 0.47 1.29 1.36 1.35 20 % -35 % -65 %
Golar LNG USD 270 240 228 276 285 310 -2 % -16 % -26 % -0.10 -0.69 -0.75 -0.43 -0.22 0.27 77 % -221 % -378 %
HMLP USD 107 101 101 117 127 106 -9 % -20 % -5 % 1.45 1.47 1.56 1.51 1.23 1.28 -4 % 19 % 22 %
Teekay LNG USD 407 387 365 758 725 414 -46 % -47 % -12 % 2.74 2.47 2.51 2.45 2.42 2.64 12 % 2 % -5 %
Dorian LPG USD 187 241 160 187 137 nm 0 % 76 % n.a 1.75 3.28 1.54 1.71 1.04 nm 2 % n/a n/a
Avance Gas USD 95 128 110 94 100 111 1 % 28 % 0 % 0.48 1.03 0.73 0.44 0.49 0.54 9 % n/a 34 %
BW LPG USD 404 370 315 408 311 290 -1 % 19 % 9 % 1.51 1.33 0.95 1.46 0.81 0.71 4 % 64 % 34 %
Navigator Gas USD 148 174 181 121 159 221 22 % 10 % -18 % 0.63 1.36 1.53 -0.01 0.53 1.19 6369 % n/a 29 %
Median 195 198 183 210 159 220 0 % -9 % -18 % 0.73 1.03 0.95 0.70 0.81 0.95 7 % -10 % 8 %
EBITDA consensus EBITDA difference EPS FS estimates EPS consensusEBITDA FS estimates EPS Difference
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnley
Average TFDE spot rates Historical VLGC Rates
Gas Carriers (LNG/LPG)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
Dk/d
ay
160k cbm TFDE avg.
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
D/d
USD/d FY'15-21 avg. FY'10-21 avg.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Fleet overview
Gas Carriers (LNG)
LNG Valuation
ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US
Share price (local) 3.8 161.0 4.6 5.4 17.1
Marketcap (fully diluted) 61 1 023 219 181 1 519
Net liabilities 224 1 530 1 646 794 5 406
EV 285 2 366 1 831 960 6 408
Fleet value (USDm) ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US
Fleet value 248 2541 1453 1129 2654
Time Charter adjustmeents 4 -15 3331
Total f leet value 252 2526 1453 1129 5985
MEGI/ XDF 170k 2541 996
DFDE 170k 594 362
DFDE 155k 248 623 302
Turbine 150k 237 255
FSRU, modern 1129
FSRU, conversion
Other assets/investments* 1 3 0 41 63
GAV 252 2529 1453 1170 6048
Net liabilities -224 -1530 -1646 -794 -5406
NAV 28 999 -193 375 642
NAV per share 1.8 157.3 -4.0 11.3 7.2
P/NAV 2.2x 1.0x -1.1x 0.5x 2.4x
EV/GAV 1.1x 0.9x 1.3x 0.8x 1.1x
LTV 91 % 60 % 89 % 70 % 85 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US
# o
f u
nit
s
MEGI/ XDF 170k DFDE 170k DFDE 155k Turbine 150k FSRU modern FSRU conversion FLNG, conversion
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
Average spot ratesLNG spot seasonality (160k cbm TFDE)
Historical spot ratesPeriod rates (1 year TC)
Gas Carriers (LNG/LPG)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
Dk/d
ay
160k cbm TFDE avg.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Sep-20
US
Dk/d
ay
MEGI/XDF 160k cbm TFDE avg. 138-145k Turbin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
jan. 05 jan. 07 jan. 09 jan. 11 jan. 13 jan. 15 jan. 17 jan. 19 jan. 21
US
Dk/d
ay
145k ST spot avg. 160k cbm TFDE avg. MEGI/XDF
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
Dk/d
Average '16-20 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
Ton-miles vs. deliveries US LNG Loadings / export
Gas Carriers (LNG)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar
2020 2021
MT
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2020 2021
Live vessels Ton miles
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
LNG age profileYearly LNG Deliveries/Orderbook/deletions
LNG deliveries (cbm)
Gas Carrier (LNG)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020E 2022E
cm
b
Historical deliveries NB deliveries
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
No
sh
ips
Deliveries Orders Deletions net
214, 33%
119, 18%
166, 25%
94, 14%
63, 10%
0-4y 5-9y 10-14y 15-20y +20y
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA Note: LNG contract price is oil price x 11-14.5%
Gas Prices
Gas Carriers (LNG)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 May-18 Nov-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Aug-21
US
D/m
mb
tu
Gas Prices
LNG Contract HHUB NBP F.E. Delivered
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
Loadings - 2021 vs 2020 Discharges - 2021 vs 2020
Gas Carriers LNG
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
United States
Egypt
South Korea
Algeria
Oman
France
Netherlands
Brazil
Indonesia
Qatar
Angola
Russia
Trinidad
Norway
Nigeria
Belgium
Malaysia
MT
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
China
South Korea
Japan
Greece
India
Netherlands
Italy
France
UK
Turkey
Spain
Belgium
MT
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
Rates continue to decline as FSRUs become commoditized
Gas Carriers LNG
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US
Dk/d
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley
Peer valuation Owned fleet
Gas Carriers LPG
Capitalization (USDm)
AGAS-NO BWLPG-NO LPG-US NVGS-US
Share price (local) 39.6 44.3 12.5 8.7
Marketcap (fully diluted) 366 748 638 669
Net liabilities 687 693 481 1 010
EV 1 053 1 441 1 119 1 680
Fleet value (USDm) AGAS-NO BWLPG-NO LPG-US NVGS-US
Fleet value 1237 1992 1463 2086
Time Charter adjustmeents -1 21
Total f leet value 1237 1992 1462 2107
VLGC 1237 1992 1463
LGC
MGC 35k 350
Semi-ref 22k 1357
Semi-ref 15k
Semi-ref 12k 138
Ethylene 8k 65
Semi-ref 5k 21
Other assets/investments 2 138 -1 0
GAV 1239 2130 1461 2107
Net liabilities -687 -693 -481 -1010
NAV 552 1437 979 1097
NAV per share 60 85 19 14
NAV per USD 7.1 10.1 19.2 14.2
P/NAV 0.66x 0.52x 0.65x 0.61x
EV/GAV 0.85x 0.68x 0.77x 0.80x
LTV 65 % 47 % 42 % 52 %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
AVANCE BWLPG LPG NVGS
# o
f ve
ss
els
VLGC LGC MGC 35k Semi-ref 22k Semi-ref 15k Semi-ref 12k Ethylene 8k
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, Company data
VLGC – Weekly AG-EAST VLGC - Annual
Gas Carriers
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US
D/d
USD/d FY'15-21 avg. FY'10-21 avg.0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
US
D/d
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources:Fearnleys, Bloomberg, EIA, Various company data, IHS Waterborne
Global LPG & VLGC volumesLPG trade by vessel type
US export capacityUS propane production
Cas Carriers LPG
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
MT
PA
Enterprise Targa Nederland P66
Marcus Hook Others Projected Exports
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
% g
row
th
Mt
Global Volumes (lhs) VLGC volumes (lhs) y/y growth (rhs)
3.8 4.3 2.7 3.0 4.7 5.5 5.44.1 5.4 5.2 5.8 4.7 5.5 4.38.3 9.4 8.1 6.4 5.6 6.5 5.4
8.39.4 10.8 12.0 13.0
15.3 16.1
50.356.1 63.0 64.4 67.0
76.3 74.9
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
VL
GC
Sh
are
MT
VLGC Midsize Handysize LGC Small-Size VLGC share (rhs)
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 100
2 200
2 300
2 400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
mb
/d
Min 13-18 range 5-year avg. 2019 2020 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
EIA Revisions - Propane (Natgas wells)Frac spread vs 9month lagged LPG production growth
US Propane exportUS Propane production
Gas Carrier LPG
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-20
US
Pro
pa
ne P
rod
uc
tio
n, y/y
(3
m)
Fra
c S
pre
ad
, U
SD
/mm
btu
Frac Sprad US Propane Production
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
mb
/d
Min 13-18 range 5-year avg. 2019 2020 2021
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
mb
/d
Min 13-18 range 5-year avg. 2018 2021 2020
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
jan.15 jul.15 jan.16 jul.16 jan.17 jul.17 jan.18 jul.18 jan.19 jul.19 jan.20 jul.20 jan.21
m b
/d
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA
US-Far East C3 spread - US spot vs 1 & 2m fwd FEI US propane inventories All PADD's
US-Asia arbitrage
Gas Carriers LPG
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
mai. 19 aug. 19 nov. 19 feb. 20 mai. 20 aug. 20 nov. 20 feb. 21 mai. 21 aug. 21
US
D/m
t
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
'000 B
arr
els
5-year avg. (LHS) 2020 Inventory (LH) 2021 Inventory (LH)
2020 MB Propane (RH) 2021 MB Propane (RH)
C/g
allo
ng
C/g
allo
ng
604
691572
31 84
-3
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
US Spot Terminal US FOB Freight (BLPGequivalent)
Trader P/L Asia 2m fwd
US
D/m
t
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, IHS Waterborne, Argus, ICIS, Platts, S&P Global Note: Each 1 MT of propylene requries 1.1-1.2 MT of propane feedstock
US exports by destinationFar East importers
China PDH PlantsSouth/Northeast Asia LPG Demand
Gas Carriers LPG
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
MT
Australia China Far East India Japan South Korea Southeast Taiwan
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
1
2
3
4
5
2015 Jul 2016 Jul 2017 Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021
MT
Far East Europe Latam/Caribs Other % Far East
53%
28%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MT
Residential Chemical Other
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
MT
pro
pyle
ne c
ap
acit
yReport produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, IHS Waterborne
Global VLGC VolumesGlobal LPG Volumes
Shipping intensity by tradelane - VLGC equivalents required to lift 1MTPAMiddle East seaborne LPG exports
Gas Carriers LPG
14%
6%
3% 3%
-2%
6%7%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e
MT
United States Middle East SE Asia
Med LATAM Africa
12%13%
2%
6%
12%
0%
6%
8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e
MT
United States Middle East SE Asia
Med LATAM West Africa
8 7 710 8 8 8 8
2
8 9 10
1010 10 10 10
3
4 45
55 5 5 4
1
11 1110
1010
11 1110
3
1 44
44
5 5
3
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD
MT
Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Iran Bahrain
5.5
3.7
2.32.6
3.1
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
US GoM - China(Suez)
US GoM - Chiba(Panama)
US GoM - ARA MEG - Chiba Balboa - Busan
Shipping intensity (LH) Roundtrips per year (RH)
Sh
ipp
ing
in
ten
sit
y
Ro
un
dtrip
s p
er y
ear
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys
Orderbook to fleet Deliveries by year
VLGC fleet age profile
Gas Carriers LPG
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
feb-2012 feb-2013 feb-2014 feb-2015 feb-2016 feb-2017 feb-2018 feb-2019 feb-2020 feb-2021
56
12 12
19
14
5 5
3
8
6
4
6
0 0
43
7
5
2
10
54
3 32
3
8
54
3
5
7
10
7
9
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Delivered OB
0-5y38%
6-10y20%
10-15y21%
16-20y8%
21-25y10%
26y+9%
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Fearnleys, Company data
Contracting Contracting last 24 months
Gas Carriers
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
k m
3
VLGC LGC MGC SGC
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
mar. 19 jul. 19 nov. 19 mar. 20 jul. 20 nov. 20 mar. 21
k m
3
VLGC LGC MGC SGC
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Gas Carriers LNG/LPG
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
LNG import & export
Japan LNG Imports LNG Import Japan m tonnes M 30.jul.21 6.2 5.7 6.0 0.5 0.2 8.5% 2.5% -16 % 6 %
China LNG Import LNG Import China m tonnes M 31.aug.21 6.7 5.7 6.0 1.0 0.7 17.3% 11.7% -2 % 13 %
LNG prices
Japan LNG Price (spot+contract) Commodity Japan USD/MMBtu M 30.jul.21 9.7 9.1 7.3 0.6 2.4 6.9% 33.2% 11 % 8 %
US Henry Hub Commodity US USD/MMBtu W 02.okt.21 5.6 5.0 1.4 0.6 4.2 11.1% 299.3% 45 % 134 %
Fleet overview
LNG Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 49.7 49.7 45.5 (0.0) 4.2 (0.0%) 9.2% 3 % 9 %
LNG Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 24.2% 24.2% 26.0% 0.0% -1.8% 24.2% 26.0% 5 % -1 %
LNG Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 12.0 11.5 11.5 0.5 0.5 3.9% 4.2% 0 % 3 %
Other data
Shipping Cost Qatar-Japan Rates Global USD/Mmbtu M 00.jan.00 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 14.8% 38.4% 17 % 47 %
LNG M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
LPG import & export
US LPG Exports Exports US 000 mt M 31.aug.21 93.1 106.0 87.4 (12.9) 5.7 (12.2%) 6.5% 21 % 1 %
Japan LPG Imports Imports Japan 000 mt M 31.aug.21 802.2 766.9 775.0 35.3 27.1 4.6% 3.5% -11 % 7 %
Korea LPG Imports Imports Korea 000 bbls M 30.apr.20 675.8 774.8 618.9 (99.0) 56.9 (12.8%) 9.2% -20 % 30 %
China LPG Imports Imports China mt M 31.aug.21 2 127.2 2 053.3 1 916.9 73.9 210.3 3.6% 11.0% 10 % 28 %
US propane inventory MMbbls Index US MMbbls W 02.okt.21 67 892 67 892 96 262 - (28 370) 0.0% (29.5%) 36 % -27 %
Commodity prices
Japan Naphta Price (CIF) Commodity Japan USD/mt W 02.okt.21 716.3 713.9 380.5 2.4 335.8 0.3% 88.2% 8 % 71 %
US Propane Prices (FOB) Commodity US, Mt. Belvieu USD/mt W 02.okt.21 775.5 695.3 252.6 80.2 522.9 11.5% 207.0% 30 % 140 %
Arab Gulf Propane Prices (FOB) Commodity AG USD/mt M 30.sep.21 665.0 660.0 365.0 5.0 300.0 0.8% 82.2% 23 % 78 %
Fleet overview
LPG Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 25.8 25.8 25.1 - 0.8 0.0% 3.0% 1 % 3 %
LPG Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 22.5% 22.5% 13.3% 0.0% 9.2% 22.5% 13.3% 19 % 75 %
LPG Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 8.7 8.9 8.8 (0.2) (0.1) (1.9%) (1.0%) 0 % 0 %
LPG M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Industrial and Other Shipping
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Industrial and Other Shipping
INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float
Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD Year
Odfjell ODF NO 30.5 NOK 84 306 0.03 31 % 6.3 10.9 11.3 15.1
Stolt-Nielsen SNI NO 148.0 14 % 129.4 NOK 64 986 0.26 37 % -5.0 19.4 19.5 17.3
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WWL NO 40.0 10 % 36.4 NOK 423 1 832 1.35 100 % 9.1 5.7 56.9 66.8
Ocean Yield OCY-NO 45.0 10 % 41.0 NOK 175 854 3.37 35 % 0.0 29.9 59.7 -5.0
Ship Finance SFL US 16.0 95 % 8.2 USD 108 882 8.13 80 % -1.7 4.0 37.7 -33.6
Average 32 % 972 57 % 1.7 14.0 37.0 12.1
% Total return, last
17%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-6%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
WAWI
WWI
ODF
OCY
SFL
SNI
TOTAL RETURNLast week
16%
7%
2%
1%
0%
-2%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Ticker
SNI
ODF
WAWI
SFL
OCY
TOTAL RETURNLast month
60%
57%
38%
20%
11%
9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
OCY
WAWI
SFL
SNI
ODF
WWI
TOTAL RETURNYTD
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Industrial and Other Shipping
INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV
Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Odfjell ODF NO 30.5 NOK 306 32.3 1.0 1.0 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE
Stolt-Nielsen SNI NO 129.4 NOK 986 156.8 1.5 1.1 6x 5x FALSE 6x 7x FALSE 0.6x 0.6x FALSE 6 % 6 % FALSE
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WWL NO 36.4 NOK 1832 47.2 0.6 0.8 9x 8x 5x 8x 32x 7x 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %
Ocean Yield OCY-NO 41.0 NOK 854 17.9 1.7 1.1 10x 10x 9x 12x 10x 10x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 4 % 4 % 4 %
Ship Finance SFL US 8.2 USD 882 11.7 0.7 0.9 10x 11x 13x 9x 9x 19x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 12 % 12 % 12 %
Average 745 0.8 0.8 9x 8x 9x 9x 15x 12x 0.8x 0.9x 0.9x 6 % 6 % 5 %
Dividend yieldEV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B
INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV
Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e
Odfjell USD 306 1 649 1 258 85 301 1 644 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE n/a
Stolt-Nielsen USD 986 3 371 2 384 - 647 3 031 554 511 FALSE 172 133 FALSE 2 026 1 733 FALSE 2.7 2.1 FALSE
Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA USD 1 832 5 267 3 435 - 3 086 6 521 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ocean Yield USD 854 2 849 1 995 - 499 2 494 232 229 223 74 84 84 1 605 1 445 1 280 0.4 0.5 0.5
Ship Finance USD 882 4 022 3 140 - 1 256 4 396 304 287 235 99 95 46 2 349 2 217 2 260 0.9 0.9 0.4
Average 696 2 436 1 648 92 1 386 3 126 277 255 - 86 66 - 1 013 866 - 1.3 1.0 -
EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Industrial and Other Shipping
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
M acro Indicators
US I.P. Chemical Products Index US Index M 31.aug.21 103.3 102.7 97.5 0.6 5.8 0.6% 5.9% 1 % 7 %
US C.B. Leading Indicator Leading indicator US Index M 31.aug.21 117.1 116.0 106.5 1.1 10.6 0.9% 10.0% 3 % 11 %
USA ISM Manufacturing PMI PMI US Index M 30.sep.21 61.1 59.9 55.7 1.2 5.4 2.0% 9.7% -1 % 9 %
US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615.0 1 554.0 1 376.0 61.0 239.0 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %
US Shipments & Inventory
US Chem ex-Pharma Shipments Shipments US USDm M 30.jul.21 44.6 44.1 39.6 0.6 5.0 1.3% 12.6% 4 % 14 %
US Chem ex-Pharma Inventory Shipments US USDm M 30.jul.21 54.7 54.3 50.9 0.4 3.8 0.8% 7.6% 3 % 6 %
US Shipments to Inventory Shipments US Ratio M 30.jul.21 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5% 4.7% 1 % 7 %
Chemical Imports/Exports
US Chemical Imports Imports US USDm M 30.jul.21 6.5 6.6 5.1 (0.1) 1.3 (2.0%) 26% 11 % 23 %
US Chemical Exports Imports US USDm M 30.jul.21 8 188.0 7 649.0 5 644.0 539.0 2 544.0 7.0% 45.1% 9 % 38 %
Japan Chemical Imports Exports Japan JPYm M 31.aug.21 7 094.8 6 530.6 4 267.5 564.2 2 827.3 8.6% 66.3% 3 % 29 %
Japan Chemical Exports Exports Japan JPYm M 31.aug.21 7 355.4 7 621.5 5 833.0 (266.1) 1 522.4 (3.5%) 26.1% -2 % 31 %
China Chem. Organic Imports Imports China mill mt M 31.aug.21 2.4 2.1 2.7 0.4 (0.2) 16.9% (9.0%) -2 % -22 %
China Chem. Veg Oil Imports Imports China mill mt M 31.aug.21 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.1 (0.0) 13.5% (3.7%) 33 % -3 %
Fleet overview
Chem. Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.0 7.0 7.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1%) 0.6% -1 % -2 %
Other data
US Chemical Carloads Demand US Carloads W 25.sep.21 32 033 30 998 30 093 1 035 1 940 3 % 6 % -4 % 5 %
CHEM ICAL TANKER M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley
Shipping Markets
Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021
report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y
Economic growth
World GDP % YoY GDP Global % YoY Q 30.sep.21 4.9% 6.0% 2.8% -1.1% 2.1% 6.0% 2.8% -18 % -18 %
US GDP Real GDP US % YoY Q 30.jun.21 12.2% 0.5% -9.1% 11.7% 21.3% 0.5% (9.1%) 2340 % N/A
China GDP Real GDP China % YoY Q 30.jun.21 7.9% 18.3% 3.2% -10.4% 4.7% 18.3% 3.2% -57 % 147 %
Japan GDP Real GDP Japan % YoY Q 30.jun.21 7.6% -1.3% -10.1% 8.9% 17.7% (1.3%) (10.1%) N/A N/A
Germany GDP Real GDP Germany % YoY Q 30.jun.21 9.4% -3.1% -11.3% 12.5% 20.7% (3.1%) (11.3%) N/A N/A
Eurozone GDP Real GDP Eurozone % YoY Q 30.jun.21 14.3% -1.2% -14.5% 15.5% 28.8% (1.2%) (14.5%) N/A N/A
Industrial Production
US I.P. Ind. Prod. US % YoY M 31.aug.21 6.0% 6.6% -6.6% -0.7% 12.6% 6.6% (6.6%) -37 % N/A
Chinese I.P. Ind. Prod. China % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.3% 6.4% 5.6% -1.1% -0.3% 6.4% 5.6% -39 % 32 %
Japan I.P. Ind. Prod. Japan % YoY, sa. M 31.aug.21 7.6% 13.3% -12.1% -5.7% 19.7% 13.3% (12.1%) 16 % N/A
German I.P. Ind. Prod. Germany % YoY M 30.jul.21 5.7% 5.4% -9.5% 0.3% 15.2% 5.4% (9.5%) 6 % N/A
PM I
Global PMI PMI Global Index M 31.aug.21 52.6 55.8 52.5 (3.2) 0.1 (5.7%) 0.2% -3 % 9 %
USA ISM Manufacturing PMI PMI US Index M 30.sep.21 61.1 59.9 55.7 1.2 5.4 2.0% 9.7% -1 % 9 %
China Manufacturing PMI PMI China Index, sa M 30.sep.21 49.6 50.1 51.5 (0.5) (1.9) (1.0%) (3.7%) -2 % -2 %
Japan Manufacturing PMI Expectation Japan Index M 30.sep.21 51.5 52.7 47.7 (1.2) 3.8 (2.3%) 8.0% -1 % 12 %
German Manuf. PMI PMI Germany Index M 30.sep.21 58.4 62.6 56.4 (4.2) 2.0 (6.7%) 3.5% -4 % 17 %
Other Expectation Indexes
OCED Leading Indicator Leading Indicator Global Index M 31.aug.21 101.0 100.9 98.0 0.08 2.94 0.1% 3.0% 1 % 4 %
US C.B. Leading Indicator Leading indicator US Index M 31.aug.21 117.1 116.0 106.5 1.10 10.60 0.9% 10.0% 3 % 11 %
US ISM Non-Manuf. Expectation US Index M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 62.6 (6.90) (2.50) (10.3%) (4.0%) -5 % -1 %
Euro ZEW Index Exp. Business condition Euro Index M 30.sep.21 31.1 42.7 73.9 (11.60) (42.80) (27.2%) (58%) -42 % -32 %
Chinese Consumer confid. Expectation China Index M 31.aug.21 117.5 117.8 116.4 (0.3) 1.1 (0.3%) 0.9% -2 % 3 %
Workforce
US Continuing Jobless Claims Labor market US 000 M 31.aug.21 2 852 2 899 13 528 (47) (10 676) (1.6%) (78.9%) -16 % -80 %
US Employees on Non-Farm payrolls Labor market US Δ '000 MoM M 31.aug.21 235.0 1 053.0 1 583.0 (818.0) (1 348.0) (77.7%) (85.2%) 35 % -72 %
US Unemployment rate Labor market US % M 31.aug.21 5.2% 5.4% 8.4% -0.2% -3 % 5.4% 8.4% -8 % -44 %
Euro unemployment Labor market Euro % M 31.aug.21 7.5% 7.6% 8.6% -0.1% -1 % 7.6% 8.6% -6 % -8 %
Exports
US Exports USDm Exports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 213 210 171 3 42 1.3% 24.5% 5 % 33 %
Euro Export Exports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 206 210 185 (3.81) 21.06 (1.8%) 11.4% 1 % 22 %
German Exports Exports Germany EURbn M 30.jul.21 115 119 102 (3.60) 12.80 (3.0%) 12.5% -1 % 23 %
Chinese Exports Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 294 283 234 11.65 59.94 4.1% 25.6% 12 % 25 %
Imports
US Imports USDbn Imports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 283 283 232 (0) 51 (0.2%) 22.1% 4 % 31 %
Euro Imports Imports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 185 192 158 (7) 27 (3.5%) 17.1% 3 % 26 %
Chinese Imports Imports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 236 226 177 10 59 4.3% 33.1% 3 % 33 %
Housing market
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Housing prices US Index M 30.jul.21 272.3 268.4 227.1 4.0 45.3 1.5% 19.9% 6 % 19 %
US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615 1 554 1 376 61 239 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %
US Existing home sales Housing US 000 units M 31.aug.21 5 880 6 000 5 970 (120) (90) (2.0%) (1.5%) 1 % 7 %
US New home sales Housing US 000 units M 31.aug.21 740 729 977 11 (237) 1.5% (24.3%) -10 % -23 %
Comm. R.E. f loorspace sold Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 15.9% 21.5% -3.3% -5.6% 19.2% 21.5% (3.3%) -56 % N/A
Resid. R.E. f loorsp. sold Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 1.7% 2.3% -0.3% -0.6% 1.9% 2.3% (0.3%) -57 % N/A
Comm. R.E. f loorsp. under constr. Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 8.4% 9.0% 3.3% -0.6% 5.1% 9.0% 3.3% -13 % 210 %
Residental R.E. f loorsp. under constr. Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% -0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% -13 % 135 %
M ACRO INDICATORSAbsolute change % change 3m trend
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Sources: Factset, Fearnley
Shipping - Market Caps > USD 1bn Shipping Market Caps below USD 1bn
Shipping Markets
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
Tankers Dry Bulk Liner Industrial/Other Gas
-
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Tankers Dry Bulk Liner Industrial/Other Gas
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
Disclaimers
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
3. Fixed Income Recommendations
Basis and Methods for Assessment
Recommendations for bonds and other fixed income instruments are based on assessment of credit risk (the creditworthiness of a particular Recommendation Subject or instrument as of a given date) relative to risk premium (risk premium inherent in yield relative to investment amount).
Fearnley Securities AS mainly analyses fixed income instruments in the high yield segment where the credit risk is regarded as high. This includes rated instruments with ratings below BBB (S&P) or Baa3 (Moody’s) (below “investment grade”) where Fearnley Securities AS will quote the ratings to the extent these are known to Fearnley Securities AS.
Definitions of Key Terms
Buy: The risk premium is considered as favorable relative to credit risk
Hold: The risk premium is considered as acceptable relative to credit risk (Prior to April 11, 2016, defined as Accumulate)
Sell: The risk premium is considered as not acceptable relative to risk (Prior to April 11, 2016, defined as Reduce)
Unless otherwise stated, fixed income Recommendations are valid until maturity of the bonds.
4. General Disclosures – All Recommendations
No Agreement with Recommendation Subjects Concerning Recommendations
Fearnley has no agreements with Recommendation Subjects with respect to dissemination of Recommendations. Draft Recommendations (other than “pre-deal research reports” in jurisdictions where pre-deal research is permitted) are not provided to, nor reviewed by, the Recommendation Subject in advance of publication. However, in certain circumstances, research analysts may submit factual portions of a draft Recommendation to the Recommendation Subject for fact-checking purposes.
Organization and Duty of Confidentiality
All employees of Fearnley are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to handling inside information. Fearnley has established “Chinese walls” and other organizational procedures to minimize conflicts of interest within Fearnley and between clients.
Compensation Schemes for Analysts
No part of analysts’ salaries or compensations relates directly to investment banking services or other services provided by Fearnley to Recommendation Subjects. All analysts in Fearnley Securities AS are, however, part of the general bonus scheme related to the total earnings of Fearnley Securities AS.
Updating of Recommendations
Fearnley Securities AS has no fixed schedule for updating Recommendations unless stated or implied in the Recommendation.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
5. General Disclaimer of Liability
Recommendations are distributed by Fearnley Securities AS as a free informational service to clients, and do not constitute any form of investment advice, whether as defined in the Norwegian Securities Trading Act Section 2-4 (1) or otherwise.
Opinions expressed in each Recommendation reflect the author’s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. All such opinions should be independently confirmed by any recipient of a Recommendation prior to making any investment decision. Recommendations may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.
Information in the Recommendations has, unless otherwise stated, been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no Fearnley party makes any representation, whether express or implied, with respect to its completeness or accuracy, or for the fitness of the information for any purposes, and it may not be relied upon as such. Fearnley accepts no responsibility for, and expressly disclaims any and all liabilities for, any and all losses, direct or indirect, or any other kind of damage resulting from reliance upon or use of a Recommendation or information contained therein. Any person receiving a Recommendation is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer and that the disclaimer shall apply even if a Recommendation is shown to be erroneous, incomplete or based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions, irrespective of any responsibility of Fearnley.
Recommendations are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities. In jurisdictions where Fearnley Securities AS is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements.
6. Confidentiality – No Redistribution or Reproduction
Recommendations are confidential, and may not be distributed or reproduced, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Fearnley Securities AS. Recommendations are intended for professional investors only and may not be passed on to any legal or physical person and/or institutions without the prior written consent of Fearnley Securities AS.
7. Additional Information for U.S. Persons
This Recommendation is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The information contained in this Recommendation is intended solely for certain major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6, an “MII”) and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Each U.S. recipient of this Recommendation represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is a MII and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or Recommendation Subject mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of Fearnley Securities, Inc., a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a Member of FINRA, located at 880 Third Avenue, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10022. Any transaction by a U.S. person (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through Fearnley Securities, Inc., which may be contacted via telephone at +1 (212) 277-3600.
This Recommendation was prepared by the analyst named on the cover of this Recommendation, who is a non-U.S. research analyst of Fearnley Securities AS and, as such, may not be subject to all requirements applicable to U.S.-based analysts.
All of the views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about all of the subject securities or Recommendation Subjects and no part of such analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be related to the specif ic recommendation or view contained in this Recommendation.
To the extent this Recommendation relates to non-U.S. securities, note that investing in non-U.S. securities may entail particular risks. Such securities may not be registered under the Securities Act, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Financial statements included in a Recommendation with respect to such securities, if any, may have been prepared in accordance with non-U.S. accounting standards that may not be comparable to the financial statements of U.S. companies. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. Fluctuations in the values of national currencies, as well as the potential for governmental restrictions on currency movements, can significantly erode principal and investment returns. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of such securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company’s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company’s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
No Fearnley party accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information given. Recommendations do not take into account the specific investment objectives and financial situation of any recipient, nor do they provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of the transaction. Investors seeking to buy or sell any financial instruments discussed or recommended in a Recommendation, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto.
The products discussed in Recommendations are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by any Fearnley party.
8. Conflicts of Interests
Fearnley Securities AS and certain other Fearnley affiliated entities regularly seek investment banking mandates, and may at any time perform investment banking or other services or solicit investment banking or other mandates from companies covered in Recommendations. Fearnley Securities AS and other Fearnley affiliated parties or related persons may (i) hold positions in securities covered in Recommendations, including taking long or short positions and/or buying or selling such securities, (ii) act as investment bankers for issuers of such securities, (iii) act as market makers for such securities, (iv) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities, or (v) act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. In order to avoid any conflict of interests Fearnley Securities AS and its employees will adhere to internal regulations, recommendations from the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association and relevant legislation and regulations from the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. Internal holdings will be specified as part of Disclosure of Position.
9. Previous Recommendations
Please contact [email protected] to receive additional information about Recommendations in the financial instruments of the issuing company the last 36 months, including data on changes in Recommendations. Please be aware that certain informal Recommendations may be excluded.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
10. Previous Reports
11. Disclosure of Positions
The following table presents holdings in financial instruments under the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 3-11 (1), as well as Section 13(d) of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Fearnley Securities AS - consolidated with related companies and associated persons – has the following holdings of (a) equities of the Recommendation Subject that exceed 1% of the total share capital of the Recommendation Subject and (b) bonds of the Recommendation Subject in a nominal amount that exceeds 1% of the total outstanding bonds of such Recommendation Subject. The aggregate of all Fearnley analyst holdings are disclosed)
Analyst’s holding Others
Company Name Equities Bonds Equities Bonds Last updated
Seadrill LTD 350 - - - 31.05.2021
Valaris PLC 625 - - - 31.05.2021
Fusion Fuel Green Plc (Including 3.900 Warrants) 400 - - - 31.05.2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
12. Disclosure of Assignments and Mandates
The following list presents information regarding any:
(i) participation by any Fearnley party as manager or co-manager of a public offering relating to a Recommendation Subject in the preceding twelve months;
(ii) receipt of compensation by a Fearnley party for investment banking services from a Recommendation Subject in the preceding twelve months;
(iii) expectation that a Fearnley party will receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from the Recommendation Subject in the following three months; and
(iv) receipt of compensation by a Fearnley party for products or services other than investment banking services in the preceding twelve months, as well as identification of all categories of services offered (investment banking, non-investment banking securities-related, or non-securities services).
Last updated: 30 June 2021
• Africa Energy Corp• Avance Gas Holdings Ltd• Bergen Carbon Solutions AS• Borr Drilling Ltd• Danaos Corporation• Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc• Fusion Fuel Green Plc• Global Ship Lease, Inc• Golden Ocean Group ASA• Hav Group ASA• Horisont Energi AS• HydrogenPro AS• Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd• Integrated Wind Solutions AS• Kyoto Group AS• Magnora ASA• MPC Energy Solutions N.V• M Vest Water AS• Norsk Solar AS• Ocean Sun AS• OHT ASA• Seabird Exploration Plc• Seaspan Corporation• Teco 2030 ASA• The Metals Company Inc
12. Statistics
The following table presents information pursuant to Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958, including quarterly statistics regarding the ratio of Recommendation categories issued by Fearnley Securities AS, as well as the corresponding ratio of Recommendation categories issued with respect to Recommendation Subjects for which Fearnley Securities AS provided investment banking services during the preceding twelve months.
Last updated 4 May 2021
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
SHIPPING WEEKLY 42
DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)
Issued by Fearnley Securities on July 8, 2019
1. Introduction
This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations (“Recommendations”) issued by Fearnley Securities AS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Astrup Fearnley AS (together with its affiliates and related parties, “Fearnley”), cf. the Securities Trading Act Section 2-10 with further regulations.
Fearnley Securities AS complies with the standards for Recommendations issued by The Norwegian Securities Dealers Association and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts. Fearnley Securities AS is registered in the Norwegian registry of business enterprises under registration no. 945 757 647 and is licensed and supervised by The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway.
Matters relating to Recommendations shall be governed by the laws of Norway and be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts. The terms of use and disclaimers set forth herein are - by reference in the Recommendation – deemed to be acknowledged and accepted by any person receiving the Recommendation.
2. Equity Recommendations
Basis and Methods for Assessment
Recommendations regarding shares and share related instruments (“Equities”) are based on price targets fixed with different valuation methods that may include analysis of earnings multiples (absolute and relative), valuation of a company using DCF (discounted cash flow) calculations and by carrying out net asset value (NAV) assessments. Price targets are changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of the assets of the issuer that is the subject of the Recommendation (the “Recommendation Subject”) changes or when factors impacting the required rate of return change. Unless otherwise stated, our recommendations have a twelve-month horizon.
Definitions of Key Terms Equity recommendations prior to 8 July 2019
Buy: When price target is more than 15 % above market price. Buy: When price target is more than 15 % above market price.
Hold: When target price is between -15%- +15% and/or if we do not see a Accumulate: When target price is within 5-15 % above market price.
compelling investment case in the share Reduce: When target price is +5 % to -15 % below market price.
Sell: When target price is 15 % or more below market price. Sell: When target price is 15 % or more below market price.
Risks
There is an element of risk attached to all investments in financial instruments. There may be uncertainties with respect to the accurateness and reliability of any information, interpretation and assessment. There are uncertainties and risks attached to the correctness of any Recommendation and with respect to forward looking statements and expectations.
High risk: beta above 1.2
Medium risk: beta range 1.0 – 1.2
Low risk: beta at or less than 1.0
Fearnley Securities AS assesses risk in Recommendations relative to the Oslo Børs Benchmark index (OSEBX). Fearnley Securities AS applies the beta as main risk assessment criterion to its Recommendations. The risk assessment is in addition based on a consideration of the individual company’s business and financial risk profile.
Note that equity coverage of Fearnley Securities AS encompasses solely companies within the following sectors: Shipping, Oil services, Seafood, Renewables and Oil E&P. These sectors are cyclical by nature and will over time presumably have a higher volatility than the overall market. Fearnley Securities AS utilizes the Oslo Stock Exchange as a benchmark in its risk assessment given the high concentration of sector participants on that exchange.
Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)
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Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)