1
WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNGGLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
Universität Bonn, 2. Juli 2009
Klimawandel: Entwicklung – Sicherheit - Weltwirtschaft
Dirk Messner
German Development InstituteGerman Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
www.die-gdi.de
2
Human security
Destabilization of countries and regions
New lines of conflicts and tensions globally
Geopolitics of climate change
RadicalTransformation ofthe Earth System
3
Main message
Climate change could unite the international community, recognizing climate change as a threat to humankind...
If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division in international relations, triggering distributional conflicts over water, land, the management of migration, compensation payments between the countries mainly responible for climate change and those countries most affected by it`s destructive impacts ....
4
Environmental Conflicts (1980–2005): Causes and intensities
5
„Old“ environmenatally driven versus climate driven conflicts
• Local• Limited numer of affected
people• Multicausal drivers• Local distributional conflicts
(water, land, forests et al.)
... No challenge for international stability and security
• Local, crossboarder, subregional, global
• Many people affected• Dito• Distributional conflicts (local,
crossborder, subregional)• Overburdened governments,
economies, societies: weak states under climate stress
• Large scale migration• Global tensions: who pays
the bill? Who is responsible?... International security impacts
6
A2
B1
2º
EU - Limit?!
Szenarien Klimawandel ... 5° plus Welt: Radikaler Wandel des Erdsystems!
a) Eiszeit – heute, b) Menschheitsexperiment, c) Erdsystem
7
Figure SPM.6
Global Warming – regional impacts
8
Die CO2-Konzentration steigt
9
Reduction of GHG – emissions needed until 2050
10
11
Mitigation as an investment in international stability ... Avoiding unmanageable risks in the global earth system!
Key actors in the furture: OECD, China/ India
Brazil1.6%
Africa4.4%
Middle East8.9%
International navigation0.7%
India10.0%
China39.4%
Other transition econom ies
1.8%
Other developing Asia9.0%
Russia2.6%
OECD Europe4.0%
OECD Pacific1.8%
OECD North Am erica12.8%
Other Latin Am erica2.9%
Projected Em issions
grow th 2004-2030
14 bn t CO 2= 55%
12
Dangerous climate change: impacts on societies
Three Perspectives
13
First Perspective: „Tipping Points“ in the Earth System – Will societies be able to adopt?
14
Collapse of the Amazonian Forest: Radical transformations of eco-systems in very little time
15
WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNGGLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
Second perspective
Climate change driven conflict constellations
16
Conflict constellation 1: Climate-induced
decline in food production-
Conflicts on land
17Droughts in the A1B-Scenario
IPCC, 2007
Ensemble-Projections 2080-2099
18
Soil degradation & desertification(intensity and dynamic)
19
Min Temp ºCSource: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
20
Precipitation % ChangeSource: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
21
Conflict constellation 2: Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources - conflicts on access to water
22
Access to Water (today)
23
Processes of desertification towards2041/2070 (Hadley Centre)
24
25
Glaciers: Global Mass Balance
World Glacier Monitoring Service
26
Glaciers in the Himalya: Importance for Water Supply ... Many people affected: agriculture/ water
UNEP 2007
27
28
Conflict constellation 3: climate-induced increase in storm and flood desasters- political instability/ economic crisis„New Orleans“
29
Messdaten:Hurrikan-Energie korreliert mit Meerestemperatur Beide sind deutlich angestiegen (Emanuel, Nature 2005)
Hurrikan-Energie (PDI)
Meerestemperatur (August-Oktober)
Globale Mitteltemperatur
Atlantik
Huricans
30
Hurricanes: intensities and patterns (1960-2006)
31
9 cm
88 cm
21 cm
70 cm
Tide Gauges
Sea level Rise
32
Bay of Bengal and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna-Bay
33
Conflict constellation 4: environmentally-induced migration
34
35
Climate Change - conflict constellations in world regions
36
Climate change as a multiplier of mechanisms that causes instability and conflicts
• Weak governance structures favours conflicts ... Climate change is affecting many fragile states ... and might overburden not yet weak governance systems
• Low income countries ... High probability of violent conflicts: Climate change affects agriculture, water system ... Creates economic problems for LDCs ... Triggering conflict risks
• Spillover risks in conflict regions: climate change causes cross-border challenges (water shortages, migration etc.)
• Climate change aggravates or causes ressource-conflicts: land, water, forests, food etc.
37
The third Perspective
Climate change impacts translating into international tensions and conflicts
38
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Areas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Highest vulnerability vs. largest per capita CO 2 emissions
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityAreas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityAreas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Areas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Areas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Areas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Highest vulnerability towards clim ate change vs. largest CO 2 em issions (from fossil fuel com bustion and cem ent production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per cap ita C O 2 em itters
Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityLargest per cap ita C O 2 em itters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerabilityAreas w ith h ighest eco logical vu lnerability
Vulnerabilty towards climate change- New lines of conflict?
39
The third perspective 1:Overstreching the capacities of the global
governance system - destabilization• Posible increase in the number of weak and fragile states
• Risks for the global economy (Stern Report)
• Growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate change and the most affected (polluter pays principle; compensations)
• Triggering and intensification of migration
• Climate change undermining basic human rights (access to water, food): the „new human rights debate“ .... Legitimacy problems for the OECD (loosing soft power)
• Limits of classical security policy: Impacts of Tipping Points could be unmanagable
40
WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNGGLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
How to avoid dangerous climate change?
The transformation towards a low carbon global economy
41
42
Towards 450 ppmv CO2
Convergence level:2 tCO2eq/cap
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200019
90
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
MtC
O2e
q
India
China
Braz il
Saudi Arabia
USA
EU 25
Japan
43
WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNGGLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
44
Primary Energy – A2r – BL: Business as usual – the 5-6 °C
world
45
Primary Energy – B1r – BL: The 3-4 °C world
“Green business as usual”
46
Primary Energy – B1r – 450: Die 2 Grad Welt
4) nationale und globale low carbon
roadmaps
5) Lebensstile
Emissio
National und international:
1) Emissionshandel – Preis für THG
2) Innovationspolitik
3) Effizienzstandards (Gebäude, Autos,Geräte)
47
Mitigation und Adaptation:neue Anforderungen für Entwicklungspolitik
• Energiekooperation China/ Indien
• Globaler Wälderschutz (Brasilien, Peru, Indonesien, Kongo)
• Kooperationen Richtung low carbon global economy
• Globale Landnutzungssysteme (Ernährung, Bioenergie, GHG-Senken, Biodiversität)
• Länder- und regionenspezifische Anpassungsstrategien
• Verbindung MDGs und Anpassung
• „Anpassung an 3 – 6 Grad Welt“ schwierig
• Finanzierung
Kopenhagen 2009 als Weichenstellung!
48© 2007 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik
„It is not important to predict the future, but to be prepared for the future.“
Perikles, 493-429 BC
49 Visión: red trans-europeo de electricidad
Vision eines Hochspannungs-Gleichstromnetzes als Rückgrat eines trans-europäischen Stromverbunds und als Ergänzung des konventionellen
Quelle: DLR, Dr: F. Trieb
50
El potencial de energías rjfcjvlknovables hasta
206