International Conferencewithin the Austrian EU Presidency
ENERGY PATHS – HORIZON 2050
Thursday, 16th March 2006
Palais Auersperg
Vienna, Austria
Federal Ministryfor Transport,
Innovation and Technology
ENERGY PATHS – HORIZON 2050Vienna, March 16th, 2006
The current President of the EU Energy Councilwelcomes you to thisInternational Conference
Dr. Martin BartensteinAustrian Federal Minister of Economics and Labour
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology
WELCOME
to the International Conferencewithin the Austrian EU Presidency
ENERGY PATHS - HORIZON 2050
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology
More Research and Development for a Sustainable Energy System
• Rising oil prices• Gas supply crisis• Grid breakdowns• CO2 issues• Worldwide increasing energy consumption
ENERGY PATHS – HORIZON 2050
The international conference "Energy Paths – Horizon 2050" is organised withinthe Austrian EU presidency in the first half of the year 2006. The conferenceaims at strengthening the long-term energy perspective of the EU with a clearview to achieve a sustainable and secure energy future that is based on theimplementation of appropriate technologies.
The identification of crucial factors that are going to affect the energy systemover the next 40- to 50- years is essential when making policy decisions.Exploring and identifying the uncertainties of these factors are therefore criticalin order to formulate strategies. Despite the given uncertainties, these strate-gies have the aim to produce the fewest drawbacks and to provide the greatestbenefits for our society.
Through adequate European policy and regulatory framework, policy responsescan support the development of a rational mix of the most efficient, environ-mentally friendly and economical energy technology options in order toapproach a sustainable energy system.
Conference Language: English
Programme
09:00 Welcome and Opening
Eduard Mainoni, Secretary of State, Austrian Federal Ministry ofTransport, Innovation and TechnologyMartin Bartenstein, Austrian Federal Minister of Economics and Labour
Session 1 Long-term Policy Perspectives
09:20 The Energy Future of EU 25+
Alfonso Gonzalez Finat, European Commission, DG TREN09:50 The Role of RTD to achieve sustainable Energy Paths
Pablo Fernandez Ruiz, European Commission, DG RTD10:20 Global Energy Perspectives to 2050 and Beyond
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Technical University of Vienna and InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
10:50 Coffee Break
Session 2 National Perspectives
11:20 UK's Energy Future – Forming a low Carbon Future
Graham White, UK Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)11:45 Policies to shape an alternative Energy Future in Bulgaria
Stoyan Todorov, Bulgarian Energy Efficiency Agency (EEA)
12:10 Lunch
Session 3 Industry Perspectives
13:50 Shell's future sustainable Energy Scenarios
Wim Thomas, Shell International14:15 Balancing the Triangle of Economy, Security and Environment in an
open European Energy Market
Kurt Häge, Vattenfall Europe14:40 Future Technologies for Power Generation
Nick Otter, Alstom Power15:05 Financial Impacts of Climate Change
Jane Milne, Association of British Insurers (ABI)
15:30 Coffee Break
Session 4 Alternative Perspectives
16:00 Sustainable long-term Energy Perspectives
Arthouros Zervos, European Renewable Energy Council (EREC)16:25 EnR's Vision for a sustainable Energy System
Havard Solem, European Energy Network (EnR) / Enova
Summary
16:50 Fritz Unterpertinger, Austrian Energy Agency
17:00 End of Conference
1
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
ENERGY 2050ENERGY 2050A A StrategyStrategy ProcessProcess
has has beenbeen startedstarted
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference Scenario
Coal
Oil
Gas
Other renewables NuclearHydro0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
1971[Laura Cozzi, IEA]
World Primary Energy Demand
2
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
What will our energy sytem look like?What does that mean for thedevelopment of our economy?Research and development: What will be needed?
2050 2050 ??
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
Austria started aStrategy Process ENERGY 2050
considering
Longterm perspectivesGlobal developmentEcological frameworkSociological changeNew technologies
3
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
PRIORITIES OF THE AUSTRIAN ENERGY RESEARCH
Renewable energy resourcesStrategies for efficiencyInnovative company researchStrategic fundamental researchInternational networking and cooperation
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
Research issues
Foresight studiesSmart gridsKey technologiesRenewable energy technologiesSocial innovation, life styleetc.
4
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
Example 1
Energy self-sustaining model Güssing
Flexible energysupply modelwith 100% regional biomassCombined heatand powergenerationBiogenic fuels
Güssing
Abteilung für Energie und Umwelttechnologien
Austrian Federal Ministry forTransport, Innovation and Technology www.NachhaltigWirtschaften.at
Example 2
Identification of productionprocesses and branchesDetermine the potential of solarthermal systems to provide low-temperature heatCase Studies: successfulrealization of a car washingplant „Sun Wash“ in Köflach
Study on the potential of thermal solar energy systems in trade and industry depending on the production processes
Production with solar energy
1
NebojNebojšša Nakia Naki enovienoviVienna University of Technology Vienna University of Technology xx
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [email protected]@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
International Conference within Austrian EU PresidencyInternational Conference within Austrian EU PresidencyEnergy Paths Energy Paths –– Horizon 2050, Horizon 2050, PalaisPalais AuerspergAuersperg,, VeinnaVeinna –– 6 March 20066 March 2006
Global Energy PerspectivesGlobal Energy Perspectivesto 2050 and Beyondto 2050 and Beyond
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##22 20062006
2
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##33 20062006
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource:: Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource:: Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Trill
ion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric - light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##44 20062006
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Poun
ds (2
000
£)/ m
lum
en-h
ours Gaslight
Kerosene-light
Electric-light PricePrice
Energy serviceEnergy service
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource:: Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
The Example of LightingThe Example of Lighting
SourceSource:: Fouquet&PearsonFouquet&Pearson (2003)(2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Trill
ion
lum
en-h
ours
Electric-light
Gaslight
United KingdomUnited Kingdom
Kerosine-light
3
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##55 20062006
Global Primary EnergyGlobal Primary Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1850 1900 1950 2000
Prim
ary
Ener
gy (
EJ)
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steam motor
Gasolinetube
CommercialNuclear
Television
aviation
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##66 20062006
Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22 ConcentrationConcentration
Source: Source: JoosJoos, 2004, 2004
4
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Variations of the EarthVariations of the Earth’’s Surface Temperatures Surface Temperaturefor the past 140 yearsfor the past 140 years
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##88 20062006
Summary of Scenario CharacteristicsSummary of Scenario Characteristics
x3x3x4x4
<x1<x1x3x3
x1.5x1.5x2.5x2.5
<x3<x3x4x4
x1.5x1.5
FactorFactor
120120--160160
4040x1000x10000.040.04Mobility Mobility (km/person/day)(km/person/day)
0.30.3
1313
0.30.3
11
18001800
6.46.4
420420
3030
66
20002000 20502050FactorFactor
x20x20
x30x30
x100x100
x6x6
55--1515
COCO22 Emissions (Emissions (GtCGtC))
600600--10401040
Primary Energy (EJ)Primary Energy (EJ)
8585--110110
GDP (trillion 1990 $)GDP (trillion 1990 $)
99Population (billion)Population (billion)
5
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##99 20062006
Global Final Energy by FormGlobal Final Energy by FormIIASA IPCC SRES ScenariosIIASA IPCC SRES Scenarios
B1, A2
B1
A1
B2
A2
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Fina
l Ene
rgy
Shar
es (%
)
B2, A1
Grids (electricity, gas, district heat, hydrogen)
Liquids(oil products, methanol, ethanol)
Solids (biomass, coal)
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1010 20062006 14
Carbon Reservoirs
BiomassBiomass~500 ~500 GtCGtC
SoilsSoils~1,500 ~1,500 GtCGtC
Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004)
OilOil~270 ~270 GtCGtC
N. GasN. Gas~260 ~260 GtCGtC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels15,000 to 40,000 GtC
CoalCoal5,000 to 8,000 5,000 to 8,000 GtCGtC
Source: Edmonds, 2005Source: Edmonds, 2005
6
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1111 20062006
Methane HydrateMethane Hydrate
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1212 2006200616
0
10
20
30
Gas CC Coal Wind Hydro Nuclear Solar-Thermal
SolarPV
ELECTRICITY COSTS
CEN
TS P
ER k
Wh
Source: Kheshgi, Exxon Mobil (2002)
7
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1313 20062006
Evolution of Global Primary EnergyEvolution of Global Primary Energy
Global Mean Temperature ChangeGlobal Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
8
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1515 20062006
Decarbonization StrategiesDecarbonization Strategies
Reduce net carbon emissions to zeroReduce net carbon emissions to zeroImprove energy efficiencies & end useImprove energy efficiencies & end useIntroduce zeroIntroduce zero--carbon technologiescarbon technologiesDecarbonizeDecarbonize hydrohydro--carbon sourcescarbon sourcesStore carbon over geological time <0.1Store carbon over geological time <0.1%%//yryr
Develop electricity & hydrogen economyDevelop electricity & hydrogen economy
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1616 20062006
The Innovation Chain
• Research and Development• Demonstration projects• Early deployment (cost buy-down)• Widespread dissemination
9
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1717 20062006
Brazil Brazil –– Ethanol Learning CurveEthanol Learning Curve
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data: Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data:Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $0.3 billion $ ?
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30Cumulative production 106bbl
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995Data: Goldenberg, 1996
Cumulativesubsidy1billion $
0.6 billion $0.3 billion $ ?
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
0
50
100
150
200
0 10 20 30Cumulative production 106 bbl
Oil-
equi
vale
nt p
rice
$/bb
l
Producer price
Regression
Oil price
1978 1985 1988 1990 1995
Estimated
30 % cost reductionfor each doublingof cum. production
Source: Goldemberg, 1996
??$2billion“Buy-Down”
Source: Source: GrGrüüblerbler, 2002, 2002
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1818 20062006
http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpghttp://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/Jpegs/06442.jpg
UsinaUsina Santa Elisa mill in Santa Elisa mill in SertaozinhoSertaozinho, Brazil, Brazil
10
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##1919 200620069
RENEWABLESHoffert et al., Science, 2002
Nakicenovic # 19 IIASA&VUT 2003
Existing and Planned ProjectsExisting and Planned ProjectsSleipner Project, saline formation, North SeaWeyburn, EOR, Saskatchewan, CanadaIn Salah, gas reservoir, Algeria (development)Snohvit, off-shore saline formation, North SeaGorgon, saline formation, Australia (planning)
Nakicenovic #20 Source: Sally Benson, 2003
11
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2121 20062006
Source: AirbusSource: Airbus
Hydrogen Airplane DesignHydrogen Airplane Design
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2222 20062006
A Future Energy SystemA Future Energy System
Source: Source: WuppertalWuppertal, 2004, 2004
12
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2323 20062006
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Number of doublings (installed capacity)
Cos
t ind
ex ($
/kW
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000
PVs Japan 1976-1995
0.1%
0.1%
50% interval
90% interval
mean learning rate(115 case s tudies):-20% per doubling
Technological Uncertainties: Technological Uncertainties: Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)
COCO22 Emissions from Scenarios with Technological UncertaintyEmissions from Scenarios with Technological Uncertainty
5 10 15 20 25 30
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Set of 130,000 Scenarios
GtC in 2100
Rel
ativ
e Fr
eque
ncy
in P
erce
nt
Gritsevkyi&NakicenovicGritsevkyi&Nakicenovic ##2424 IIASA 2000IIASA 2000
Optimal set of13,250 scenarios
13
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2525 20062006
Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph Steam Locomotive
Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet, Mobile Phone
ICE Automobile Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility
InformationHydrogen
Natural gas / fossilsSMR,
decarbonization
Electrolysis
Sunlight
Wind
Uranium
1770s
1870s
1970s
2070s
Energy Services Through Time
Biomass
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2626 20062006
Global Energy Assessment:Global Energy Assessment:Towards a more Sustainable FutureTowards a more Sustainable Future
•• TheThe magnitudemagnitude of the change required is of the change required is hugehuge
•• The challenge is to find a way forward The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses all the issues that addresses all the issues simultaneouslysimultaneously
•• A paradigm shift is needed: energy endA paradigm shift is needed: energy end--use efficiency, renewables, new nuclear use efficiency, renewables, new nuclear and carbon capture and storage.and carbon capture and storage.
14
Vision of a Sailing RailwayVision of a Sailing RailwayMonorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828Monorail using sails proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1828
Source: Marshall, 1938Source: Marshall, 1938Nakicenovic #Nakicenovic #2727
NakicenovicNakicenovic ##2828 20062006
Add as many mail coaches as you please, Add as many mail coaches as you please, you will never get a railroad by so doing you will never get a railroad by so doing
Joseph A. SchumpeterJoseph A. Schumpeter
•• A new paradigm is needed with A new paradigm is needed with convergence of innovative convergence of innovative technologies.technologies.
1
“UK’s energy future – towards a low carbon future”
Graham WhiteDirector, Energy Strategy Unit Department of Trade and Industry
16 March 2006
2
Today’s discussion
Overview of current energy policy
The Energy Review
Progress and challenges on climate change
Low carbon electricity generation
Reducing energy demand
The international challenge
2
3
The Energy White Paper set ambitious, complementary goals for the UK
Getting on a path to cut the UK’s CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050
Maintaining the reliability of energy supplies
Promoting competitive markets in the UK and beyond
Ensuring that every home is adequately and affordably heated
Aim is to achieve these together
4
There has been good progress but further efforts are needed
The UK has already met its Kyoto target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 12½% below 1990 levels.Reliability of our gas and electricity systems has improved with a 30% reduction in outages since 1990The UK is the most competitive market in Europe with substantial gas infrastructure investment of £10 billion coming forwardThe number of households in fuel poverty fell sharply, from 6½ million to 2 million, between 1996 and 2003 But we are facing a number of challenges on security of supply, prices, and in meeting our environmental and social objectives
3
5
Energy Review launched
Review progress against 2003 Energy White Paper goalsLook at energy security of supply – Growing UK oil and gas import dependency– Need to replace 30% of electricity generation capacity
(coal and nuclear) in next 15 yearsWe will look at what more action we might do to make further progress against our climate change goalHow to step up progress on energy efficiencyRisk of rising and volatile prices
6
Energy Review time-scales Consultation exercise launched on 23 January, closes 14 April
Series of seminars, workshops etc
Review will report to the Secretary of State and Prime Minister in early Summer and Prime Minister has stated that proposals will be brought forward this year
Parallel work under the Stern Review is looking at the economics of global climate change – report in the Autumn
4
7
A number of key mechanisms are to contribute to lower CO2 emissions
Key mechanisms (not exhaustive)
• EU ETS• CHP measures• CAT strategy• CO2 from cars
• Renewables Obligation
• Energy Efficiency Commitment• Building regulations• Climate Change Agreements• Enhanced Capital Allowances• Fuel poverty programmes
Government target for 2010
Reduce CO2 emissions from 1990 levels by 20%
Generate 10% of electricity from renewables
Deliver savings through energy efficiency
8
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
MtC
440
490
540
590
640
MtCO2
UK Carbon Dioxide Emissions National Goal
Emissions have declined, but reaching the 2010 goal may be a challengeHistorical and projected CO2 emissions in the UKMtC, MtCO2
Current ‘with measures’projections indicate a 10.6% reduction by 2010
Source: 1990-2004 NETCEN, 2005-2010 DTI Projection
5
9
EU ETS is key - Phase I launched Phase II taking shape, need to think about Phase III
Phase I successfully underway, with active trading in carbon allowances. Important to get proper analysis on how Phase I is working
UK progressing with Phase II National Allocation Plan – currently consulting on emissions projections; intend to issue a draft policy NAP before Easter
Commission due to review EU-ETS Directive this year. Important that this considers key issues such as greater long term certainty and increased harmonisation
10
An increasing amount of electricity is being generated from renewable sources
1.51.8
2.2
3.1
4.0
10.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2010
UK electricity from renewable sourcesPercent (on a Renewables Obligation basis)
6
11
And new wind generation capacity is being built at a promising rate
Existing and expected wind capacity in the UK
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
built under construction other consented total short termpotential
MW
offshore onshore
Total = 4 GW Planning process = 10 GW
12
Other renewable technologies also have a roleIf we wish to meet our renewables goals for 2020 and beyond we must invest in research to realise the full potential of developing technologies, such as biomass, wave and tidal, photovoltaics and the hydrogen economy
Marine Renewables Deployment Fund (£50 million)Bioenergy Capital Grants Scheme (£66 million)Low Carbon Building Programme (£30 million)Hydrogen Strategy – demonstration programmes for hydrogen and fuel cells (£15 million)
7
13
But we can also reduce carbon through carbon abatement technologies
In June 2005 DTI launched a £35 million Carbon Abatement Technology Fund
Aim to improve the efficiency and co-firing of existing power plant with low carbon alternatives such as biomass
Explore the feasibility of demonstration of carbon capture and storage
14
The potential of carbon capture and storage
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has the potential to cut power plant CO2 emissions by up to 85%
Carbon has been captured and stored in a number of places around the world. Large-scale carbon capture from electricity generation has not yet taken place
BP/Millfield Project Proposal – this would be the world’s largest demonstration of CCS applied to a 350 MW power station.
8
15
The role of energy efficiency
Energy efficiency contributes to:
Reducing energy demand and carbon emissionsSecurity of supply – the less we use the less we need to importUK competitiveness – through reducing business costsReducing the cost of keeping warm and fuel poverty
16
Measures and sectors contributing to reduced demand in 2010Range of measures to reduce demand are expected to contribute some 8% of reduction on 1990 level by 2010 (excluding EUETS).
Expected lower energy demand from: Households: about 1/4 through Energy Efficiency Commitment, tighter building regulations, product labelling etc.Business :about 2/5 through Climate Change Levy and CCA voluntary agreements, building regulations, emissions trading (UK and EU) Transport : about 1/3 through voluntary agreements, 10 Year Plan, company car tax, fuel duty escalator etc.
9
17
The international challengeClimate change is a global problem – needs global action
UK only contributes 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions
International action helps the competitiveness of business
Action required by developed and developing countries –subject to their common but differentiated responsibilities
Action needed on both mitigation and adaptation
18
The international agenda going forwardConvention process – long term co-operative action (all countries)
Kyoto protocol – post 2012 commitments (Kyoto countries to discuss)
G8 Gleneagles Dialogue – Mexico Ministerial
G8 Summit – St Petersburg, July 2006
EU – Energy Green Paper
UK Stern Review, Energy Review, Climate Change Programme Review
10
19
Summary
Significant progress is being made towards the Government’s energy and climate change policy objectivesOn balance, markets and market instruments are delivering progress on a range of policies However, the major transition to a lower carbon economy will inevitably present some challengesThe Government’s role remains not to intervene but to ensure the right policy, incentives and regulatory frameworks are in placeBut countries cannot move alone, there has to be global action
1
ENERGY PATHS – HORIZON 2050
International Conference within the
Austrian EU Presidency
Thursday, 16 March 2006
Palais Auersperg, Auerspergstrasse 1
A-1080, Vienna, Austria
ENERGY EFFICIENCY AGENCY
2
Shares of fuels and energy in the Final Energy Consumption 2004
Liquid fuels38,7%
natural gas9,0%
coal10,5%
electricity23,8%
heat9,7%
biomass8,3%
Liquid fuels natural gas coal electricity heat biomass
The biomass share 8.3% (mainly wood) in Final Energy Consumption (FEC) in 2004 is comparable with the shares of natural gas and heat energy.
The power produced from other kinds of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is insignificantly small and without a real share in the country energy balance.
Current SituationCurrent Situation -- FEC, BulgariaFEC, BulgariaEnergy paths – horizon 2050
2
3
Sector Shares in the Final Energy Consumption 2004
Industry38,4%
Transport26,5%
Households24,2%
Services7,7%
Agriculture3,1%
Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Households and transport consume more than 50% from the FEC – the largest part of this energy does not produce added value.
The approximate evaluation of energy saving measures in industry has reached up to 30% of the present specific energy consumption.
The approximate evaluation of energy saving measures in households has reached up to 40% of the present specific energy consumption.
Energy Consumption - Recent Official Data
4
Energy Efficiency in BulgariaEnergy Efficiency in Bulgaria
Current situationCurrent situation
•• Primary Energy IntensityPrimary Energy Intensity (2004) (2004) ~ 0.336 koe/~ 0.336 koe/€€2000 2000 pppppp
•• Final Energy IntensityFinal Energy Intensity (2004)(2004) ~ 0.158 koe/~ 0.158 koe/€€2000 2000 pppppp
•• RatioRatio ~ 0.468~ 0.468
The Bulgarian economy remains energy intensive to a The Bulgarian economy remains energy intensive to a significant extent.significant extent.Bulgaria has vast potential for implementation of Bulgaria has vast potential for implementation of profitable EE measures.profitable EE measures.
There is a need to develop a more aggressive strategy to improve energy efficiency.
Energy paths – horizon 2050
3
5
Final energy consumption and RES utilization for 2005 - 2050
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
years
ktoe
FEC Necessary RES increase Prognosis RES increase
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Target -Sustainable and Secure Energy Future
The increase of energy from RES till 2050 is insufficient to achievesustainable energy development
Tasks
• Governments shouldpromote RES utilization
• Combination of introducing RES with EE measures.
• Application ofmeasures for sustainable energy development
In the forthcoming years, EE measures will be more efficient than measures for RES utilization.
6
Avialable potential (yearly)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Geothermal
Biomass
Hydro
Wind
Solar
ktoe
The available RES potential in Bulgaria is considerable.
Wood – with major share within all RES in the Energy Balance of the country.
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Available energy potential of today’s technologies
Basic Conditions for Sustainable Energy Development
4
7
020406080
100120140160180
BGN/GcalH
eatp
ump
( GSH
P)
Coa
l
Woo
d
Nat
ural
gas
Boile
r fue
l
Cen
tral
heat
ing
Elec
trici
ty
Prices for 1 Gcal heat energy - 01.01.2006
Heating energy from wood is more economically efficient
A special interest for investments in future will be production, processing and burning of wood and its derivatives.
Economic Preconditions for the Present and Future Use of Wood in Bulgaria
Energy paths – horizon 2050
8
Elements of Effective National Sustainable Development Strategies
Energy paths – horizon 2050
At first – to reach the targets of the Long-term EE and RES programs (developed by EEA)
Assessment of measures to be implemented
Partnership with EU countries for development and RES utilization
Enhance scientific and technical exchange with EU countries
5
9
Future Utilization of Renewable Energy Sources
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Total utilization of the energy potential of firewood – main objective
• For heating.
• For electricity production.
• Replacing the consumption of liquid fuels by firewood
• Utilization of wood for co-generation.
Rapidly increasing the bio-energy production.
Implementation of heat pumps.
Utilization of geothermal resources.
10
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Implementing new Technologies
Amount of the investments for incorporation of hydrogen into vehicles
Fuel cells have the potential to power cars, trucks, and buseswithout emitting harmful emissions
Distributed generation (DG) , Co-generation, Three-generation
Photovoltaic systems
Stirling engines - powerful alternative to the internal combustion engine
New generation heat pumps
6
11
Targets
• Increasing of wood consumption for energy purposes.• Considerable power generation with biomass utilization.• Mass utilization of earth and water connected heat pumps.• The utilization of liquid fuels for generation of heat power should be stopped. • The production of liquid bio-fuels must sharply be increased.• Re-orientation of end consumers (especially the industry) towards alternative fuels and energies.
Energy paths – horizon 2050
12
Energy paths – horizon 2050
Thank you for your
attention !
1
Shell Global Scenarios 2005
Wim ThomasHead Energy AnalysesShell Scenario Group
March 2006
2
The Shell Global Scenarios
The companies in which Royal Dutch Petroleum Company and The “Shell” Transport and Trading Company, p.l.c. directly or indirectly
own investments are separate and distinct entities. The expressions “Royal Dutch/Shell Group” and “Group” are used to refer to the
companies of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group as a whole. The words “Shell”, “we”, “us” and “our” are used in some places to refer to the
Group and in others to an individual Shell company or companies where no particular purpose is served by identifying the specific
company or companies.
The information contained in this presentation is, to the best of our knowledge, true and accurate although the forward looking
statements herein are by their nature subject to risk factors which may affect the outcome of the matters covered. None of Shell
International Limited, its affiliates and their respective officers, employees and agents represents the accuracy or completeness of the
information set forth herein and none of the foregoing shall be liable for any loss, cost, expense or damage (whether arising from
negligence or otherwise) relating to the use of such information. Permission should be sought before any part of this presentation is
reproduced, stored or transmitted by any means. Trilemmap is a Shell trademark.
© Shell International Limited, 2005
2
3
What are scenarios?
• NOT projections, predictions or preferences
• Alternative futures
• What if questions, NOT answers
• Challenge assumptions
• Relevant to business
• Develop strategies & test plans
4
Shell’s Global Scenarios 2005 The dual crisis of ‘Security’ and ‘Market Trust’
3
5
6
Increasing energy intensity of global economy
4
7
Energy demand growthprimarily in developing world
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2025 low 2025 high
mbo
e/d
Developing world
Developed world
8
Power demand growth 3 times higher thanTransport or Heat
0
20
40
60
80
100
mb
oe/
d
Heat
Transport
Power
Total 2005 Increment to 2025
Feedstock
5
9
Decreasing exploration potential …
10
Unconventional scope dwarfs Conventional Resources - potentially
Guestimates from a diverse range of sources
6
11
Call on OPEC (Crude)
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
mln
b/d
12
Market share Primary Energy
LTG Open Doors Flags
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables
2005
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables
2025
7
13
Energy intensive economic growth can make GHGs emissions a major threat
By 2025, emissions limiting technology has gained limited impact
CarbonWorrisome CO2 Trends
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2005 2015 2025 2035
Global fossilcarbonemissions,GT/annum
550
1000
Sequestration all new coalLTG 2020+, OD 2015+
FlagsLTGOD
450 ppmv
14
Potentially sufficient renewable resources for 10 bln people …
… but intermittency and conversion into liquid fuels will prove a technological challenge.
8
Wim ThomasHead Energy AnalysesShell Scenario Group
March 2006
Shell Global Scenarios 2005
www.shell.com/scenarios
1
„Balancing the triangle of economy, security and environment in an open European energy market“
Energy Paths – Horizon 2050
Thursday, 16th March 2006 Vienna, Austria
Professor Dr.-Ing. Dr. h.c. Kurt Häge
Europe is the world‘s third largest consumer of coal behind China and the US
About 490 mill. t/a hard coal and 550 mill. t/a lignite in Europe
Data in mill. t for 2004
Lignite production
Hard coal production
Hard coal imports
picture 1
2
FossilFuels64.4%
Hydro17.1%
Nuclear16.9%
Others1.6%
Fossil Fuels – indispensable for a long time
Share of differentprimary fuels for
electricity generation
picture 2
Fossil fuels will be needed – Coal has an essential role
• Fossil fuels – global use will increase during the next decades
• The CLEAN COAL concept fits in the context of climate protection as well as security of supply
• Vattenfall wants to give a major thrust to the development of the CO2-free power plant.
picture 3
3
Europe & Eurasia2454 Mtoe
North America2392 Mtoe
Asia Pacific2666 Mtoe
Coal is a key part of the world’s energy mix – and growingin Mtoe
26%
45%
29%
38%
40%
22%
Source: BP – 2004, EU Commission
49%
39%
12%
Africa & Middle East702 Mtoe
15%
48%
37%
South & Central America333 Mtoe
15%
48%
37%
CoalOilGasexpected2030
Primary Energy Consumption of Fossil Fuels – 2003 to 2030
picture 4
Vattenfalls ambition – the goal
Development of a reliable and economic feasible generation
technology for coal under the condition of ambitious CO2-reduction
targets in the future
picture 5
4
1. According to what we know today, efficiencies of coal-fired power plants of approx. 53% can be attained by 2020:
Integration of coal drying in lignite-fired power plants
Increase in process parameters – the 700°C power plant
Optimised hook-up of the heat systems
Advancement of combined processes
2. A new step will be to design power plant concepts featuring CO2sequestration envisaged for implementation after 2020 according to the following principles:
Combustion with pure oxygen (Oxyfuel process)
Coal gasification (IGCC)
CO2 sequestration from flue gas (post-combustion)
Further development - two ways are needed
picture 6
Carbon Capture Technologies - overview
- Post Combustion
- Oxyfuel
- IGCC
mid-term
available
( after 2015)
NewTechnologies
( appr. after 2020)
Long-term
Possibilities
( after 2025)
CO2-Separation
- Chemical Looping
- CO2-Wheel
- CO2-Mineralisation
- Oxycoal
- Hybrid-Processes
-Fuel Cells
- ZECA-Process
picture 7
5
The Oxyfuel-Process - O2/CO2- Recirculation
picture 8
The Pilot Plant - Boundary conditions
Why Oxyfuel?- Process with high efficiency potential- Vattenfall Knowledge regarding pulverized firing and flue gas cleaning systems- Production of CO2 with necessary purity for storage
Why 30 MW thermal?- Combustion chamber as big as needed and as small as possible - Scale-up-Possibilities for Demo Plant (600 MWth)
What are the possibilities? - Testing of the whole process (coal feed in till CO2 liquefaction and compression) - Use of “Lausitzer Braunkohle” (also possible for hard coal)- Possibilities for reconstruction and exchange of components (e.g. Burners)
picture 9
6
Location for the pilot plant – Key elements
- Industry location (Permission)
- Use of the infrastructure of a Power station (Supply and disposal, cooling water, water treatment …)
- Possibilities for steam supply for an industrial park
- Production of dry lignite at the site (VE-Mining)
picture 10
The foresight - upscaling
Test plant
0.5 MWth< 3 Mio. €
Pilot plant
30 MWth< 40 Mio. €
Demonstrationplant
300-600 MWth200-600 Mio. €
Commercialplant
>1,000 MWth
• Investigation of single components
• Basic principles
• Interconnection of the process chain (but no full steam cycle)
• Interaction of components
• Procedural basic principles
• No revenues from electricity
• Efficiency-optimisation of the entire process
• Very high not competitive fixed costs
• Necessity for competitive marginal costs
• Competitive full cost
• No subsidies
2004 2008 2015 2020
picture 11
7
Advisory Council
Plants &CO2-Capture
Communication & Public Acceptance
Infrastructure &Environment
CO2-Use &Storage
Mirror Groupof Member States
Secretariat
Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)
Deployment Strategy (DS)
Coordination Group
Market, Regulation & Policy
Technology Platform ZEFFPP:Organisational Structure
ETP ZEFFPPAdvisory Council #5
Brussels 22nd February 2006
Technology Platform ZEFFPP:Organisational Structure
picture 12
A Three Phase Argumentation
I. Reducing emissions and increasing efficiency in ecologically and economically optimized steps
Modernization of existing plants: SO2, NOx, dust, retrofitConstruction of new state of the art power plants
II. Development of high-efficiency power stations with the aim to minimize consumption of resources and reduce specific emissions, particularly those of CO2
III. New Technologies for CO2 capture and storage
picture 13
8
European Power Plant PortfolioPower generating capacity in EU 15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GW
Power plants younger than 40 years
Nuclear
Coal
Other
Gas
Hydro
Best available technologySelection via competition
in open markets
Scope for visionary
technologyUltra low
CO2 emissionpower plant?
No singlesolution –Coal will be a part
1st and 2nd
ET Period
Life time extension
picture 14
Towards Zero CO2 Emission Power Generation
CO2-capture• pre-combustion at
gasification plants• post-combustion at
conventional plants• oxy-fuel combustion
CO2-storage• depleted oil and gas fields• deep saline aquifers• unmineable coal seams• mineralisation
Research in both areas with the same effort. There will be no acceptance for a near zero emission power station without CO2 storage possibilities
Some technologies are well-proven, others need significant R&D. All require demonstration with monitoring & verification of storage sites.
picture 15
9
Thank you for your attention
1
Future Technologies for Power Generation“Key Challenges in the Transition towards Zero Emission Fossil
Fuel Power Generation”
Nick OtterDirector of Technology and External Affairs, ALSTOM Power Ltd
Energy Paths – Horizon 2050Vienna
16th March 2006
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 2
AN INDUSTRY POINT OF VIEW
IMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES
NEED FOR AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
THE TECHNOLOGIES
SOME CONCLUDING REMARKS
Contents of Presentation
2
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 3
Energy Equipment/Systems Supply Company- ALSTOM Power : world-wide supplier of power generation systems/services
Viewpoint
UK Advanced Power Generation Sector- UK Advanced Power Generation Technology Forum (APGTF) - UK DTI Advisory Committee on Carbon Abatement Technologies (ACCAT)
European and an International Context- Active in EC arena, especially ETP on Zero Emission FF Power Plant- Involved in IEA Zero Emission and associated actions- UK representative on the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 4
AN OVERALL PERSPECTIVE
3
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 5
Near Term Global Position
020406080
100120140160180200220
54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 04Order Year
Ann
ual O
rder
s [G
W/a
]
Sources: ALSTOM, RDI Newgen July 2004 - GT & ST >= 3 MW , & Hydro >=10 & Diesel >= 1 MW - before 1974: data poor & excluding diesel.Hydro estimated from UDI - 216 GW in 2003, cancelled units excluded, at risk of cancellation included
15 years
10 years NAM
LAM
ChinaAsia
MEAEurope
Market Development50 Years of Order Volumes by Regions
At Risk ofCancellation
Post WW IIeconomic
development
Oil crisis Liberalization &emerging Asia
USmerchants
emerge
Market Intelligence / Market / MK 506 St / 30 08 2004
Recent Power Investment Peak Led by North AmericaThen by China
15ye
ars
Significant market changes …………..increased liberalisation, de/re-regulation and privatisation
Future growth - importance of
developing countries
- upsurge in China and Asia
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 6
Long Term Energy Market
Different needs world-wide- uneven access to modern energy
Growth of Renewable Energy and potential resurgence of nuclear but ….
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
GW
Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells
IEA projections of global power station
build to 2030
Capacity
IEA World Energy Outlook 2004
Continuing reliance on fossil fuels
– especially likes of China and India
4
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
OthersHydroNuclearConventional SteamGas Plant (GT & CC)
Age ofPower Plant
Source: UDI, BD/MI
GW 1054 GW >= 30 Years
1%
30%
3%
61%
5%Tot. Installed 2002 : 3791 GW
GW Volume of plants reaching 40 years of age, by year:
Average 35 GW / a
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
LAMMEAChinaAsiaNorth America
Europe
Installed Base Capacity -Aging Fleet
• Over 1/4 of world-wide capacity is more than 30 years old
….. a lot in the developed world
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 8
Independent 19Oct05
Environment– What happens post 2012? – 60% GHG reductions by 2050?
Environmental Issues -`longer term` aspects
importance of engaging Emerging Market Economiesimportance of engaging Emerging Market Economies
0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
7 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
9 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0
Mt o
f CO
2
E u ro p e a n U n io n E U & A c c e s s io n C o u n t r ie sU S A B ra z i lIn d ia C h in aJ a p a n
Forecasted CO2 IncreasesSource: EC/EEA, 2004
China will overtake US as biggest CO2 emitter
by 2015
5
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 9
IMPLICATIONS and CHALLENGES
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 10
Importance of clean use of fossil fuelsa critical transitional issue in getting to a sustainable energy futurean essential part of the portfolio
Importance of accelerating the take-up of clean fossilneed for incentives for early action on `zero emission` power plantstable financial and regulatory framework to get “many of a kind”
Importance of engaging Emerging Market Economiesuse of high efficiency technologies, and ……….…………. prepare the way `zero emission`
• retrofitting of high efficient coal plant for CCS to avoid “carbon lock-in”• how to ensure new plant is “capture ready”
Implications
6
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 11
Environmentalnear zero emission but ………………………. not just CO2, other emissions as well
Economicscompetitive conversion and performance costsfuel flexibility : gas, coal, cofiring, ……………..optimisation of overall system and components
Operabilityhighest reliability and availabilitycost effective maintenance and performance
Technology/Research Challenges
Need for an integrated strategy to get to Need for an integrated strategy to get to ““zero emissionzero emission””
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 12
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH
7
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 13
Pathway to zero emission power for fossil fuels
CarbonReduction
Time
Zero EmissionsTarget
Near-term Mid-term Long-term
High efficiency plant, one key element of zero emission
power generation
Framework/Market?Value of CO2?Policy/Regulation?Geography?
Capture ready concept90%
20%
Storage of CO2
EOR
Approach needs to be compatible with other emission requirementsApproach needs to be compatible with other emission requirements
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 14
Elements of Integrated Approach
Must be developed with the following in mind– Long term time frame : out to 2030 and beyond– Technology needs to be `in-tune` with market to engage investors– Needs of different markets and countries
Must embrace non-technical issues as well as
technical
Research and Technology
Validation of Technology
CO2 Protocol, Legal, Health, Safety, Perception,..
2010 2020 2030LighthouseProjects
Non technicalissues
Technology
Increasing complexity in-tune with market development
Must contain the overall approach of– Increased efficiency, fuel flexibility and re-powering– Near-zero emission with CO2 capture and storage– Link to Hydrogen issues or long term sustainable `vision`
Must include aspects of– Research and technology development– Component and system validation– Demonstration/`Lighthouse` Projects– Deployment mechanism
8
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 15
9 Major Themes in FP7– Health– Food, Agriculture and Biotechnology– Information and Communication Technologies– Nanosciences/technologies, Materials and New Production– Energy– Environment and Climate Change– Transport– Socio-economic Sciences and the Humanities– Space and Security Technologies
9 Key Topics• Hydrogen and Fuels Cells• Renewable Electricity Generation• Renewable Fuel Production• Renewables for Heating and Cooling• CO2 Capture and Storage for ZEPG• Clean Coal Technologies• Smart Energy Networks• Energy Savings and Efficiency• Knowledge for Energy Policy Making
EC FP7 Content Draft : Energy EC Proposals 6Apr05
7 year Energy programme of ~3b euroover 2007-2013 being sought
EC wish to align Themes with European Technology Platform
approach
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 16
Critical Mass EuropeanAction : 21June05
ETP “Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants”
– Advisory Council formed 21Jun056 Generators : EoN, Endesa, ENEL, RWE, Vattenfall, Energie E2
6 Equipment suppliers : Ansaldo, ALSTOM, Air Liquide, Foster Wheeler, Mitsui Babcock, Siemens
5 oil/gas companies : BP, Shell, Statoil, Total, Schlumberger
4 researchers : BGS, CIRCE, IFP, Polish CMI
3 NGOs : Bellona, CAN Europe, WWF
– EU agenda setting out to 2030-2050– Major input to EC FP7 (2006-2013)
Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)Deployment Plan (SDD)
Vice Chairs : Appert/IFP (France)Hill/BP (UK)Valero/CIRCE (Spain)Soothill/ALSTOM (UK)
Chair : Haege/Vattenfall (Germany)
Good industry supportGood industry support
Vision Statement
To enable European fossil fuel power plants to have zero emission of CO2
by 2020
9
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 17
Technology Platform Structure Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plant
Advisory Council
Plants &CO2-Capture
Communication & Public Acceptance
Infrastructure &Environment
CO2-Use &Storage
Mirror Groupof Member States Secretariat
Strategic Research Agenda (SRA)
Deployment Strategy (DS)
Coordination Group
Market, Regulation & Policy
Critical Mass European Action :Organisational Structure : 2Dec05
Chair : UK
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 18
ZEFFPP ETP Action Plan :High Level 2-Year Milestones and Timing
2006 2007
Communicationand Engagement
Strategic Research Agenda
Deployment Strategy
Implementation of Strategy
General Assembly #1Launch 1Dec05
Vision
General Assembly #2
FP7FP7 : Definition of WP FP7 : Call for Proposals
Member State Mirror Group/FENCO Recommendations
Joint Undertaking/Joint Technology Initiative?
Key Tasks
10
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 19
Worldwide Engagement
Thrust for coThrust for co--ordination and interaction internationallyordination and interaction internationally
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)– Technology Route Map– Project Initiation and Review Team– Stakeholder engagement through projects
G8 Action Plan– Financial Mechanisms/World Bank– `Capture Ready` Technology/IEA
EU/UK China Zero Emission Plant– DEFRA/DTI Initiative through EC– Feasibility study leading to demonstration of Near Zero Emissions Coal plant
(NZEC)
IPCC Special Report on CCS– Summary for Policy Makers agreed Sept05
AustraliaBrazilCanadaChinaColombiaDenmark (new)European CommissionFrance (new)Germany (new)IndiaItaly
JapanMexicoNetherlands (new)NorwayRepublic of Korea (new)Russian FederationSaudi Arabia (new)South Africa (new)UKUSAGreece (applied)
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 20
THE TECHNOLOGIES
11
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 21
1960 1980 2000 20201960 1980 2000 2020
Material Development
- Efficiency (net) HHV- Steam Parameter
25-30%
33%
40%-45%> 48%
Ni-based MaterialsT91
Modern DayOnce ThroughTechnology
AdvancedAustenitic Materials
3480/1005/1050 (psi/°F/°F)240/540/565 (bar/°C/°C)
2400/1005/1005167/540/540 Sliding Pressure
Supercritical
5400/1300/1325(psi/°F/°F)375/700/720 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1110/1150(psi/°F/°F)275/600/620 (bar/°C/°C)
4000/1075/1110 (psi/°F/°F)275/580/600 (bar/°C/°C)
38-40%
>50% lhv
Efficiency Improvement
Carbon Abatement Technologies
100% coal
AD700
Average Europe
Reference Plant
10% biomass
20% biomass
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
Net efficiency (lhv, %)C
O2
emis
sion
(g/k
Wh)
% biomass on LHV
Co-firing/Fuel Flexibility
Towards zero emission with CO2capture and storage
CONDENSATE
GASRECIRCULATION
FAN
FLUIDIZINGGAS
BLOWER
COMBUSTOR
Cyc
lone
BA
CK
P ASS
HE A
TE X
CH
AN
GER
S
CFB Steam Generator Unit
ASHCOOLER
ExternalHeat
Exchanger
NITROGENAIR
INDUCED DRAFTFAN
AIRSEPARATION
UNIT
GasCooler
PARTICULATEREMOVALSYSTEM
OXY
GEN
HEA
TER
PFWH
CO2-RICH PRODUCTTO GAS PROCESSING
SYSTEM
LIMESTONECOAL
OXYGEN
AIRINFILTRATION
Oxy-fired CFB
ENCAP: pre-combustion carbon capture.
Goal: Develop lean-premixed H2 burner– fuel-flexibility
(NG/oil/H2/syngas)
Axial fuel injection (independent of NG LPM system).Axial fuel injection (independent of NG LPM system).
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 22
Amine Based Systems– Further Improvements in Solvents– Application of Membranes Technologies
Ammonia– 10 % of Amine Cost and 1/3 of Amine’s Steam Use
Frosting– Uses refrigeration principle to capture CO2 from
Flue Gas.
CO2 Wheel– Use Regenerative Air-Heater-Like Device with
Solid Absorbent Material to Capture ~ 60% CO2from Flue Gas.
Post Combustion :Alternate Paths to CO2 Capture
Focused on Reducing Cost and Power Usage
New plant and retrofit application
CO2 cycle gasout
Flue Gasfromgas
turbine
CO2 depletedflue gas toheat recovery unit
CO2 cycle gasin
CO2 ab-/desorbingcoating
Heatinsulatingmaterial
Rotorcorematerial Element structure
12
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 23
Oxygen-Fired Combustion
Near-term solution for CO2capture
Uses commercially available air fired PC technologyO2 production by commercial cryogenic air separationCO2 cleanup, compression, and liquefactionIntermediate step leading to advanced processes
30 MWth Schwarze Pumpe Vattenfall
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 24
Chemical Looping Gasification
Advanced Processes
Oxygen Fired CFBChemical Looping
CombustionGasification
Long–Term Development Technology for CO2 Capture, Hydrogen Economy, and Power Generation
Chemical Looping Combustion
OxidizerReducer
CaS
CaSO4
CO2 & H2O
Coal,Limestone Air
Depleted Air, Ash,
CaSO4
OxidizerReducer
CaS
CaSO4
CO2 & H2O
Coal,Limestone Air
Depleted Air, Ash,
CaSO4
OxidizerReducer
Calciner
ColdSolids
CaCO3 CaO
CaS
CaSO4Coal,Steam
CO2
Air
CaCO3
Depleted Air, Ash,CaSO4
HotSolidsH2
CONDENSATE
GASRECIRCULATION
FAN
FLUIDIZINGGAS
BLOWER
COMBUSTOR
Cyc
lone
BA
CK
PASS
HE A
TE X
CH
AN
GE R
S
CFB Steam Generator Unit
ASHCOOLER
ExternalHeat
Exchanger
NITROGENAIR
INDUCED DRAFTFAN
AIRSEPARATION
UNIT
GasCooler
PARTICULATEREMOVALSYSTEM
OXY
GEN
HEA
TER
PFWH
CO2-RICH PRODUCTTO GAS PROCESSING
SYSTEM
LIMESTONECOAL
OXYGEN
AIRINFILTRATION
O2 fired CFB
13
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 25
Multi-pollutant Control Systems
Integrated APC system based around commercially proven and reliable technologiesUses readily available reagentsProduces reusable byproduct(s)Superior cost/performance ratio:
– Extremely compact design– Fewer moving parts reduces maintenance – Superior environmental performance
Targeted emissions levels:– SO2: 0.02 lb/MMBTU (> 99.5%)– Hg: 1.0 lb/TBTU (> 90%)– PM: 0.01 lb/MMBTU (99.99%)– NOx: 0.05 lb/MMBTU w/SCR
Control outlet emissions to ‘near zero’ levels
Controls SOx, PM10/PM2.5Mercury & NOx
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 26
Overall System Performance
Construction
Air Preheater
Mills
Low NOx Systems- LNCFS- TFS 2000TM
- Fuel Switching
Burner NOx Retrofits- RSFC™- P2™
Research andDevelopment- Air Modeling Capabilities
- CFD Modeling
Environmental Systems- SNCR- FGD- Precipitators- Scrubbers
Importance of System IntegrationImportance of System Integration
Transformer
Steam Turbine
CO2 cycle gasout
Flue Gasfromgas
turbine
CO2 depletedflue gas toheat recovery unit
CO2 cycle gasin
CO2 ab-/desorbingcoating
Heatinsulatingmaterial
Rotorcorematerial Element structure
CO2 Capture
14
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 27
Some Concluding Remarks
Energy Paths 2050 Future PG Technologies Vienna OTTER 16Mar06 28
The need for clarity in the future– difficult to forecast future; no one single winning technology; broad balanced
portfolio approach– need for stable regulatory/fiscal framework to encourage investment– impact of ETS and value for CO2 : visibility into the future
The need for clean fossil fuel technology– will continue to play a major role for decades yet– clean use of fossil will be paramount : a key element in the mix– a global issue : importance of engaging emerging market economies– retrofit application and new (capture ready) plant approach
The need for accelerated action– maintain the impetus of 2005– work towards an agreed post-2012 position as soon as possible
Final Concluding Thoughts
Innovation and continued technology development will be essentiaInnovation and continued technology development will be essential to l to meet complex demands of the futuremeet complex demands of the future
15
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.
•…
. unt
il 20
05 re
ache
d a
new
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cord
of $
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n
UK
Wea
ther
Dam
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Cost
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K In
sura
nce
Clai
ms
(£m
)
050
010
0015
0020
0025
0030
00 1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Year
£m
Subs
iden
ceFl
ood
and
Stor
m
Clim
ate
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ge a
nd
extre
me
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ms
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re p
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S
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42 to
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27 to
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.54-
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se
nsiti
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+ 41
+ 4.
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pact
of
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ate
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Loss
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ith
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ar
frequ
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($bn
)
Loss
es w
ith
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0 ye
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frequ
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($bn
)
Ave
rage
annu
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($bn
)
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sto
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Ann
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osts
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0 –
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s sc
enar
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and
US
hur
rican
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-65%
-70%
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ium
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ppm
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-15%
-20%
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ium
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h(7
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$67b
n$4
5bn
$4.5
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igh
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Loss
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0 ye
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Ave
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ann
ual
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s (a
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Man
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e ris
ks:
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ucin
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ks:
Fina
ncia
l im
pact
of a
dapt
atio
n
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bnre
duce
s to
?
$4.3
bnre
duce
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$9.1
bnre
duce
s to
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bn
2080
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$0.9
bnre
duce
s to
?
$13.
4bn
redu
ces
to$6
.1bn
$28.
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redu
ces
to$5
.1bn
2080
Hig
h
$0.6
bn$0
.6bn
$1.8
bnC
urre
nt
Sub
side
nce
UK
intra
-urb
an
flood
ing
UK
rive
r and
co
asta
l flo
odin
gS
cena
rio
Man
agin
g cl
imat
e ris
ks:
Red
ucin
g flo
od ri
sks
-opt
ions
Can
site
/pro
pert
ies
be lo
cate
d ou
tsid
e th
e flo
odpl
ain?
Can
pro
pert
ies
be lo
cate
d in
the
low
est f
lood
risk
are
as?
Can
occ
upie
d ar
eas
be ra
ised
abo
ve fl
ood
heig
hts?
Are
floo
d de
fenc
esfe
asib
le/ c
ost e
ffect
ive?
Iden
tify
rele
vant
pro
pert
y re
silie
nce
optio
ns a
nd e
xam
ine
alte
rnat
ive
flood
alle
viat
ion
mea
sure
s.
If no
t…
If no
t…
If no
t…
If no
t…
Sou
rce:
Mun
ich
Re
Insu
ranc
e as
a
mes
seng
er o
f cha
nge
1
Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040Half of the Global Energy Supply
from Renewables in 2040
Prof. Arthouros Zervos, PresidentEREC
European Renewable Energy Council
Energy Paths – Horizon 2050International Conference within the Austrian EU Presidency
Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:
AEBIOMAEBIOM European Biomass AssociationEGECEGEC European Geothermal Energy CouncilEPIAEPIA European Photovoltaic Industry
AssociationESHAESHA European Small Hydropower AssociationESTIFESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry
FederationEUBIAEUBIA European Biomass Industry AssociationEWEAEWEA European Wind Energy AssociationEURECEUREC AgencyAgency European Renewable
Energy Research Centres Agency
ERECEREC –– EuropeanEuropean RenewableRenewable Energy Energy CouncilCouncil
2
ERECEREC –– activitiesactivities
To act as a forum for exchange of information and discussion on issues related to RES
To provide information and consultancy on renewable energies for the political decision makers on local, regional, national and international level
Information dissemination on RES issues (organisation of conferences, workshops, publications, etc.)
To promote European RES equipment, products and services on world markets
Renewable Energy HouseCentral meeting point for RES issues in the heartof BrusselsHeadquarters for the European renewable energy sectorAmbitious energy concept for renovation of monument protected building (RES & RUE measures)
Insulation of roof and façadeDouble glazing100 % RES heating and cooling supply from RES(pellets, solar thermal, geothermal installation)Electricity production with PV (modules, semi-transparent, thin film)
3
RES target forEurope
20 % by 2020 in Europe
Benefits of 20 % targetBenefits of 20 % target
Total RES investment of 443 billion € in the period 2001-2020
126,7 – 323,9 billion € of cumulated avoided external costsbetween 2001 and 2020
728 million tons/year of CO2 emission reduction in 2020
115,8 billion € of cumulative avoided fuel cost reduction in EU15 (2001-2020)
Creation of more than 2 million full time jobs until 2020
4
RenewableEnergy Scenario
to 2040
Why a Scenario ?
images of alternative futuresneither predictions nor forecastsimage of how the future could unfolduseful tools for investigating alternative future developments and their implications
Scenarios can create a vision for the future
5
The Advanced International Policies Scenario (AIP
Scenario)
Half of the global energy supply byrenewables in 2040
ambitious growth ratesadditional support measuresregions already active in the promotion of renewables will increase their effortsHigher prices for conventional energy supplygrowing support for electrification of the poor regions byrenewablesImplementation of the Kyoto protocol and additional measuresInternational cooperationtotal energy consumption are based on a scenario from theIIASA
AIP Scenario assumptions
6
Growth rates of different technologies in AIP Scenario
Growth rates of different technologies in AIP Scenario
7
The contribution of Renewable Energy Sources to the world energy supply in 2040 – Projections in Mtoe –
Advanced International Policy Scenario
The contribution of Renewable Energy Sources to the world energy supply in 2040 – Projections in Mtoe – Advanced International Policy Scenario
8
Electricity Scenario – Advanced International Policies
Exemplary detailed scenario for electricity – AIP scenario
9
Exemplary detailed scenario for electricity – AIP Scenario
The contribution of RES to the world energy supply in 2040 - AIP
10
Dynamic Current Policies Scenario
DCP Scenario assumptionsDoes not mean „business as usual“Model based on less international co-operation that in AIP scenarioExpects amibitious policy measures on national level at least in the industrialised part of the worldadditional support measurestotal energy consumption are based on a scenario from the IIASA, but higher consumption is assumed
11
Growth rates of different technologies DCP Scenario
Growth rates of different technologies DCP Scenario
12
Dynamic Current PoliciesScenario (projection in Mtoe)
SummaryRE has the technological potential to play a leading role in the energy mix of the future.
RE is integral part of the energy supply in many countries today.
RE has tangible economic, ecological and social benefits.
BUT: RE market development depends on a coherent, predictable, supportive political & legal framework.
13
Thank youThank you forfor youryour attention!attention!
For more informationwww.erecwww.erec--renewables.orgrenewables.org
ERECEREC -- European Renewable Energy CouncilEuropean Renewable Energy Council
Renewable Energy HouseRenewable Energy House
Rue dRue d’’Arlon 63Arlon 63--65, B65, B--1040 Brussels, Belgium1040 Brussels, Belgium
T: +32 2 546 1933 T: +32 2 546 1933 -- F: +32 2 546 1934F: +32 2 546 1934
erec@[email protected]
1
Energy Paths – Horizon 2050
Drivkraft for fremtidsrettede energiløsningerSpearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
EnR's Vision for a Sustainable
Energy System
Dr. Håvard Solem, Enova SF
EnR President 2006
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Outline
1. EnR
2. Enova SF
3. Enova SF – EnR interaction
2
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
EnR – a short introduction
European Energy Network, established 1991
Voluntary network of organisations with a national
responsibility for energy efficiency and renewable energy
23 member organisations:ADEME (France), CEA (Czech Republic), CRES (Greece), EST (UK), IDEA (Spain), STEM (Sweden), …
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Goal“EnR is always an authoritative contributing partner to the improvement of policy making and the development and implementation of RUE and RES programmes and climate change abatement activities, both on a national and European level.”
EnR – a short introduction
Vision“EnR’s vision is to be at the forefront of Europe’s drive towardsincreased energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources by enhancing the role of its members through communication, coordination and collaboration and by acting as a bridge between national activities and those of the European Community and other relevant international bodies.”
3
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
State enterprise owned by the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy
Funds originate from a levy on transmission of electricity fordomestic consumption, app. 70 mill Euro per year
Funds are channeled into an Energy Fund, Enova acts as the fundmanager
Enova SF
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Vision 2050:“A driving force towards a sustainable energy system”
Main challengesIncrease production of renewable energyDecrease growth in energy consumption
Main policy instruments:– Closing the efficiency gap – Removing barriers
• Technology• Information• Normative measures
Enova SF
WG Renewable EnergyWG Energy EfficiencyWG LabellingWG Behavioural Change
EnR
4
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Regnmakerne – “The Rainmakers”
• A national concept for children • The goal is to involve and create interest and
engagement in energy related subjects among children and young people.
• Children in Norway between the ages of 6 and 15 can meet the Rainmakers on www.regnmakerne.no, on national TV and in primary school
Tomorrow’s decision-makers determines our future
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Kids4future (EUSAVE)Based on the Rainmakers concept
Partners from Belgium, Finland, Greece, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, and Slovakia
Develop a common European platform:– Activities in primary school– Book about the Rainmakers– Children’s programme on national TV– Website
Enova – EnR interaction
5
Spearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Concluding remarks
Success criteria for policy development in 2050
Taking diversity into consideration– National energy and environmental issues– Economic situation – Legislation – Culture
Benchmarking and exchange of information on best practice– Among members – Between EnR and the European Commission
Energy Paths – Horizon 2050
Drivkraft for fremtidsrettede energiløsningerSpearheading Environmentally Sound and Rational Use of Energy
Thank you for your attention!
Responsibility and Coordination
Dr. Gerald Vones Austrian Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour Division Energy – Technology and Safety
Dipl.Ing. Theodor Zillner Austrian Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology Division Energy and Environmental Technologies
in cooperation with :Austrian Energy Agency
Venue
Palais AuerspergAuerspergstrasse 1, 1080 Vienna
Conference Fee
Participation in the conference is free.Please note that the registration procedure requires an invitation from the organisers.
Poster Exhibition
In the hall of the conference venue an exhibition of selected posters presenting pro-jects, concepts and research programmes can be visited throughout the conference.
Evening Programme
All participants are invited to attend the conference reception on15th March 2006 beginning at 7 p.m.
Location: Café AtelierAugustinerstraße 1, 1010 Vienna
Hotel Rooms
A limited amount of hotel rooms at a reduced price is pre-reserved.Please consult the website below.
Website for Registration and further Information
www.energyagency.at/service/veranst/energypaths.htm
For registration please fill in and submit the form on this website until 3rd March 2006
at the latest. Your registration needs to be confirmed by an invitation from the orga-nisers.
Organisers
Austrian Federal Ministry of Economics and LabourAustrian Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology
Federal Ministryfor Transport,
Innovation and Technology