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Literaturstudie zum Einfluss der Klimaänderung auf die zukünftige Wasserkraftnutzung
Abbildung 1: Stausee Gibidum oberhalb der Massaschlucht im Wallis. Foto: Nina Boogen
Nina Boogen
10. Juni 2011
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Vorgehensweise
Ein Grundstock an Studien waren durch die Hydropower’ 10 – 6th International Hydropower Conference 2010, in
Tromsø, Norwegen gegeben. Weitere Studien wurden durch die drei folgenden Strategien ermittelt: Suche im ISI Web
of Knowledge, Referenzen der einzelnen Paper und Suche im Google Scholar Netzwerk. Anschliessend wurde eine
passende Struktur zur Einteilung der gefundenen Studien gesucht. In einem ersten Schritt wurden die Paper in die
Kategorien „mit Modellen“ und rein deskriptive oder Review-Studien „ohne Modell“ geteilt. Danach wurden die
Studien mit integrierten Modellen weiter kategorisiert durch die Art ihrer Modelle. Dabei wurde zwischen vier
verschiednenen Modelltypen unterschieden: Hydro Model, Resevoir model, Operation model und Economic model.
Resultate
Es wurden 48 Studien untersucht, wobei 29 Studien zur Kategorie „mit Modellen“ gehörten und 19 rein deskriptive
oder Review-Studien sind. Von den 29 Studien mit Modellen haben:
• Alle (ausser Nr. 28+29) ein hydrologisches und/oder ein reservoir modell
• 9 ein ökonomisches Modell (Nr. 3, 7+47, 17+18+19, 22, 26, 30)
• 13 ein operationales Modell (Nr. 7+47, 16, 22, 24, 25, 28+29, 33, 34, 37, 42, 48)
• wobei 3 davon ein kombiniertes Modell (reservoir+operationell) haben (Nr. 33, 37 und 48)
• wobei 3 davon ein kombiniertes Modell (hydro+reservoir) haben (Nr. 24, 26 und 44)
Vier Studien sind nicht ganz kategorisierbar und gehören daher zu den spezielle Studien: eine GIS Analyse (Nr. 15),
eine volume change calculation (Nr. 27), ein risk assesment (Nr. 34) und ein statistischer Ansatz (Nr. 35). In Abbildung
2 sind die Studien in Abhängigkeit ihres Erscheinungsdatums aufgetragen. Ersichtlich ist ein Peak im Jahr 2010.
Abbildung 3 hingegen zeigt die Abhängigkeit des Studienortes. Die meisten Studien untersuchen Gebiete in der
Schweiz oder USA/Kanada.
Abbildung 2: Verteilung der Studien über die Jahre 1994-2011.
Abbildung 3: Verteilung der Studiengebiete.
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Im nachfolgenden werden die Studien in den beiden Katogorien „ohne Modelle“ (Tabelle 1) und „mit Modellen“
(Tabelle 2) getrennt in Tabellen zusammengefasst.
Tabelle 1: Artikel ohne Modelle (rein deskriptiv)
Referenz Art des Artikels Study area
1 It reviews and summarizes climate change studies which address hydrologic parameters critical to
hydropower production, and those studies which have specifically evaluated future hydropower
impacts.
California, the Pacific
Northwest, and the
Colorado River Basin.
2 The scope of this Technical Paper is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on hydrological
processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources – their availability, quality, uses and
management. The Technical Paper takes into account current and projected regional key
vulnerabilities and prospects for adaptation.
Global
6 Mit diesem Projekt wurden vorhandene Daten und Forschungsergebnisse zielgerichtet
gesammelt, bewertet und ausgewertet. Der Bericht stellt kurz und prägnant die von
Klimamodellen abgeleiteten Grundlagen dar und baut insbesondere auf dem Bericht des
Österreichischen Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaftsverbandes "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf
die österreichische Wasserwirtschaft" auf, beschäftigt sich aber mit den abzuleitenden konkreten
Strategien für die Wasserwirtschaft (Handlungsnotwendigkeiten/-optionen).
Österreich
8 Ziel: Fachleute aus der Wasserkraftwirtschaft und der Klimaforschung identifizieren gemeinsam
offene Strategie- und Forschungsfragen, die im Hinblick auf visionäre Lösungen im Bereich von
Wasserkraft und Klimawandel für den Zeithorizont 2030 gelöst werden sollten. Thesen zu vier
Bereichen: Ökologie, Sicherheit, Betrieb, Politik.
Schweiz
10 Case study of Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka is rich of water resources. There are 103 distinct river basins
covering 90 percent of the land area of the island. Therefore, Hydropower is the most
economically viable and environmentally friendly electrical energy source in Sri Lanka. The gross
theoretical hydropower potential in Sri Lanka is estimated at 8,000 GWh per year. Influenced by
Droughts, Floods, Changing Monsoon pattern, etc.
Sri Lanka
11 This report aims to evaluate the implications of the need to adapt to climate change for water
resource policy and regulation across Europe, assess the strengths and weaknesses of current
policies and regulations, and describe progress and activities in European countries. Country
studies in the Appendix.
Europe
12 Chapters about different sectors affected by climate change. Chapter 4.7 about Energy. Review of
studies and case studies as well.
Europe
13 Nearly 100% of this electric power supply is provided by hydropower from a cascaded group of
run-of-river interconnected hydroelectric power plants, 270MW of which are located on one
river, the Shire River in the southern part of the country. The remaining 4.5MW is provided by
Malawi’s only mini hydro scheme, located on a small river, Wovwe River, in the northern part of
the country. Malawi’s hydropower schemes have been affected by the impact of climate change
and general environmental degradation for years, Problems: Droughts, Floods, Siltation and
Aquatic weeds. Adaption strategies.
Malawi
14 In this paper we summarize findings from recent work related to climate and hydropower
potential. Both historical and forward looking studies have been reviewed. We have focused on
the hydrology, specifically inflows and the climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) that
have the greatest impact on inflow.
Global
20 General overview including economic factor of liberalisation (Swiss) Alps
21 GHG Emissions from resevoirs/dams India
23 Annex III (1995-2000), on Hydropower and the Environment, identified the most significant
3
challenges to the hydropower sector and recommendations were made covering five areas: 1.
Energy Policy Framework 2. Decision-Making Process 3. Comparison of Hydropower Project
Alternatives 4. Improving Environmental Management of Hydropower Plants 5. Sharing Benefits
with Local Communities. These Recommendations have been updated based on best practice.
31 A review of studies adressing the impacts of climate change on electricity market, on electricty
demand and electricity supply (for Hydropower, thermal power, bioenergy, wind and solar
power).
Global
36 Gute deskriptive Übersicht, neben den expliziten wasserkraftspezifischen Aspekten sind
insbesondere auch die übergeordneten Entwicklungen am Strommarkt auf Angebots- und
Nachfrageseite für eine umfassende energiewirtschaftliche Bewertung der zukünftigen Rolle der
Wasserkraft innerhalb des gesamten Kraftwerksportfolios zu berücksichtigen (Liberalisierung,
Entwicklung des europäischen Strombinnenmarktes, etc.).
Österreich
39 The Environmental and Social Management Plans (ESMPs) designed to mitigate, compensate or
rehabilitate those being negatively affected by the construction and operation of the HPPs could
consider measures that contribute to energy efficiency and reduced emissions. In this paper we
propose to implement so-called Energy and Climate Planning (ECPs) as an integral part of ESMPs.
The objective of the ECPs is to put in place a long-term strategy. This paper identifies two
channels by which hydropower can cope with the climate challenge and at the same time
contribute to sustainable development at the local level: Sustainable design & local development.
40 In mehreren Workshops wurden Klimaszenarien für das Jahr 2050 erarbeitet. Basierend auf den
Szenarien werden Vulnerabilitäten in den Bereichen Wasserhaushalt, Energie, Landwirtschaft,
Ökologie, Gesundheit, Tourismus, Infrastrukturen, urbane Schweiz untersucht. In diesem Kapitel
werden die Auswirkungen der Klimaänderung auf die Wasserwirtschaft für folgende Bereiche
detaillierter behandelt: Veränderungen in natürlichen Gewässern, Naturgefahren Wasser,
Wasserangebot und Wasserbedarf, Wassernutzung, Bewirtschaftung der Wasserressourcen.
Kurzer Abschnitt zu Energie.
Schweiz
43 Rivers of Kerala are comparatively small and being entirely monsoon-fed, some of them
practically turn into rivulets in summer, especially in the highlands. In spite of the heavy rainfall
and numerous water resources, Kerala faces serious water shortages on certain occasions leading
to power crisis, as a result of irregularities in temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall, slope of
the terrain and improper water resources management and conservation measures. Challenges in
power sector: Ecologists, Government works slow, Fast growing demand, safety issues…
Kerala, Indien
45 This paper considers two geographic regions where significant climate change may occur and
assesses how possible future precipitation distribution and water run-of may affect the viability
of hydro electric power. Considerations: New plants, existing plants, Network implications,
Economic considerations, Generating costs.
Zambesi basin, Central
and Eastern Europe
46 Zusammenfassung Stand der Forschung in Deutschland, Klimamodelle, Szenarienanalysen,
Vorschläge zur Adaption. Auf der Basis der bisher vorliegenden Berechnungen wird in
Deutschland allgemein für die nähere Zukunft mit einer Mindererzeugung aus Wasserkraft um 1
bis 4 %, für die fernere Zukunft von bis zu 15 % gerechnet.
Laufwasserkraftwerke
in den südlichen
Bundesländern,
Deutschland
4
Tabelle 2: Artikel mit Modellen
Referenz Climate Data Hydro Model Resevoir model Operation model Economic model Study area
3 1. ‘most likely scenario’ assumes temperature
increase of +2°C and precipitation increase of
10% 2. ‘alternative warm scenario’ assumes
+3°C and -10% in precipitation (higher
frequency of La Nina), Ministry of
Environment (1990)
Modified water balance model:
main inputs are catchment
hypsometry, runoff, albedo,
mean monthly precipitation,
temperature, solar radiation.
The model estimates annual
and monthly components of
catchment precipitation,
evaporation, and storage.
multiple regression with
serial correlation
(Durban-Watson d Test)
with Heating Degree Days
(HDD) and Cooling Degree
Days (CDD
New Zealand, 80% of electricity
from hydro, yearly production of
15’000 GWh, 7’305 MW of it in the
southern alps.
4 1. GCM downscaling to RCM (for control
period and scenarios)
2. Putting climate database
into hydrological model (water
balance model, HBV model)
3. Getting water
resource scenarios
A standard set of 6 drainage basins
was developed. These basins are
fairly representative of climate
regions and of prime water related
interests in the country (Sweden).
The 4 northernmost basins are of
special interest to the hydropower
industry, although there are power
plants in all 6 rivers.
5 The analyzed climate change scenarios were
derived from 19 climate experiments obtained
within the EU research project PRUDENCE
(Christensen et al. 2002). They are the results
of 9 state-to-the-art Regional Climate Models
(RCMs) driven by three coupled Atmosphere-
Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs),
respectively HadCM3/HadAM3H,
ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE.
A conceptual, reservoir-based
precipitation-runoff
transformation model called
GSM-SOCONT (Hydrological
model like in Schaefli, 2005).
For the glacierized catchments,
the glacier surface
corresponding to this future
scenario is updated through a
conceptual glacier surface
evolution model.
Swiss Alps, 11 catchments
5
7+47 The GCM information, consisting of large-scale
surface meteorological data (e.g. monthly
surface precipitation), GCM data is effectively
downscaled and bias-adjusted. […] a control
and a 1% greenhouse-gas- increase scenario.
A generator of hydrologic-
model forecast input vectors,
whereby
An ensemble of
reservoir inflow
forecasts
Management component for
generating non-inferior
alternatives of operational
policy at a given reliability level
(turbine load dispatching, short-
range energy generation
scheduling, long/mid-range
reservoir management).
Based on 1995 California
monthly energy prices
The three forks (North, Middle and
South Fork) of the American River
drain approximately 4800 km2 of
the mountainous terrain of central
California (with elevations up to
3000 m) and join to provide inflow
to Folsom Lake. Folsom's
hydropower station includes three
turbines, each with a power range
of 15 - 70.5 MW.
9 UKMO Hadley Centre HadRM3 regional
climate model (RCM)
Grid based water balance
model (G2G), solution 1km
Scottland: 47 modelled
catchments, 6 catchments
selected for further analysis
15 12 GCMs with 20th century GRDC data and
future (scenario A1B) to evaluate the global
trends of runoff.
Analysis with GIS database. The GIS has been used here as a tool to merge and analyze different databases in order to
gain insights of the anticipated changes.
165 global basins of more than 28
years of data
16 Klimamodell ENSEMBLE, herunterskaliert auf
25 km Auflösung, Klimaprojektion zwischen
2021-2050, Referenz 1998-2009.
deterministisches
hydrologisches Modell
Bernydro.
Resultierende
Abflussganglinien der
Klimaszenarien wurden
ins Betriebsmodell des
Wasserkraftwerkes
Löntsch gegeben
(TimeSteps Energy 2010).
Stromnachfrage und PFC
wurden dabei konstant
gelassen.
Wasserkraftwerk Löntsch,
Hochdruckspeicherkraftwerk,
durchschnittliche
Energieproduktion pro Jahr: 116
GWh. Gespiesen durch den
Klöntalersee mit nutzbarem
Volumen von 40 Mio m3.
17+18+19 Three climate change scenarios (all available
from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre) were
used in this study. Two are from the results of
the HadCM2 GCM developed by the Hadley
Centre at the UK Meteorological Office They
differ in that one, HadCM2-S, incorporates the
effects of aerosols that have the tendency to
cool the atmos- phere. The third scenario is
from the ECHAM4 GCM developed by the Max
The ‘WatBal’ model Reservoir model: The
routine, based on
that used by the HEC-
5 package (USACE,
1990), assesses the
feasibility of meeting
energy targets while
taking account of the
end storage levels
The electricity market model
uses the energy production
estimates from the reservoir
model to determine revenue in
each period. This component
provides measures of the
financial performance of the
project based on the revenue
earned together with user-
Case study: The 1600MW Batoka
Gorge project. It is planned for the
Zambezi River upstream of Lake
Kariba on the Zambia-Zimbabwe
border
6
Planck Institute fur Meteorologie. and flow or energy
limits.
entered data such as project
costs, inflation and interest
rates and the financing
structure. The financial analysis
routines are based on standard
economic appraisal methods,
and determine a range of
measures that include net
present value (NPV), internal
rate of return (IRR), discounted
payback, and unit energy cost.
22 The Norwegian Meteorological Institute offers
downscaled time series on precipitation and
temperature for a number of different climate
models (GCM). This study will employ
empirical-statistical downscaled time series
(ESD) for Tromsø, with time resolution 3
months (Benestad 2008). Climate predictions
in this paper will follow the SRES A1b scenario
(IPCC 2000).
Hydrology is simulated by a
Rainfall-Runoff model (HBV
model), considering both
changes in climate and changes
in glaciers during the period up
to 2100
The designed hydro
power system contains
two reservoirs, two
power plants and one
transfer tunnel diverting
four streams, Future
power production is
simulated using the
nMAG model, calculating
bypass, turbine water,
electricity production,
flood spill and reservoir
level. All calculations are
performed in daily
resolution. Each element
in the hydro power
system is characterized as
a specific module, routing
water algorithmic
downstream the
watercourse
Market Analysis: Two
alternative price scenarios were
identified: 0.28 NOK/kWh and
0.60 NOK/kWh in 2040
(Discounted to 2010 the
alternative equals 0.50
NOK/kWh).
Catchments along Ullsfjorden,
Northern Norway, are subject to a
possible hydro power
development of 150-200 GWh the
coming years.
7
24 Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie mit dem
Globalen- Zirkulations-Modell ECHAM5,
Klimaszenario wird ein A1B-Szenario nach
IPCC verwendet.
Langfristbewirtschaftungsmodell WBalMo (Water
Balance Model). In diesem Modell werden die
Bewirtschaftungsprozesse der Wasserressourcen und die
Bedarfsprozesse der Wassernutzer deterministisch
betrachtet. Die natürlichen Eingangsdaten, wie z.B.
Niederschlag, Verdunstung oder natürliche Abflüsse,
hingegen werden stochastisch erzeugt.
Die elektrische Leistung
der Wasserkraftanlagen
Einzugsgebiet der Mulde
(Nebenfluss der Mulde)
25 Aufbereiten der Klimaszenarien für die
Perioden 2020-2050 aus verschiedenen
Klimamodellen für verschiedene Regionen der
Schweiz in hoher räumlicher und zeitlicher
Auflösung. Klimadaten aus PRUDENCE und
ENSEMBLES, downscaling auf die schweizer
Ebene.
Kopplung der
Klimaszenarien mit dem
hydrologischen Modell
PREVAH
An 3 - 5 ausgewählten
Fallbeispielen
(Kraftwerken) sollen
mittels Kopplung von
hydrologischen und
betrieblichen Modellen
die Auswirkungen der
Klimaänderung auf den
Betrieb detailliert
analysiert werden.
Schweiz, Fallstudie ist [15].
26 Two different state-of- the-art GCMs:
theHadCM3model and the ECHAM4/OPYC3
model. The applied scenarios are largely
consistent with the no-climate-policy IPCC-
IS92a scenario esti- mates of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC, 1992) and the intermediate Baseline-A
scenario as developed by the Dutch National
Institute of Public Health and Environment
(RIVM). They represent a set of ‘business-as-
usual’ assumptions about population growth,
economic growth and economic activity, and
imply an average annual increase of carbon
dioxide emissions of 1% per year.
Integrated global water model WaterGAP (Water—
Global Assessment and Prognosis). This model
transforms current and future climate and water use
conditions into time series of river flows. It thus allows
for a combined analysis of the effects of climate change
as well as demographic, socioeconomic and techno-
logical trends on large-scale discharge regimes.
WaterGAP comprises two main components, a Global
Hydrology Model and a Global Water Use Model.
Calculating of Gross
hydropower potential.
Europe
8
27 A novel method has been presented to infer glacier volume changes from length changes with help of a two-parameter (length and volume) dynamical system of
macroscopic glacier dynamics. For 12 glaciers, a dynamically equivalent simple model (DESM) was found which reproduces their length and volume changes.
12 Glaciers in Switzerland
28+29 27: Projections of the NCAR PCM and
GFDL CM2 climate models run under the
greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES
A2 and SRES B1
28: A Dry Warm Scenario (GFDL A2-39), a
Wet Warm Scenario (PCM A2-39), and a
Warming-Only Scenario
Energy-Based Hydropower
Optimization Model (EBHOM),
which is based on energy flows
and storage instead of water
volume balances. EBHOM is a
monthly- based optimization
model that requires all input
variables including monthly
runoff, storage capacity, and
generation capacity in energy
units. EBHOM is a deterministic
optimization model, EBHOM
finds operations which yield the
highest possible revenue for the
known inflows in a given year
California’s hydropower system is
composed of high and low
elevation power plants. There are
more than 150 high-elevation
power plants, at elevations above
1,000 feet (300 m). Most have
modest reservoir storage
capacities, but supply roughly 74%
of California’s in-state
hydropower. 137 high-elevation
hydropower plants for which the
data were complete for 14 years
30 GCMs: CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2,
ECHAM4, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, NCAR-
PCM. -> Downscaling.
Emissions scenario: A1B, A1T, A1FI, A2,
B1, B2.
Variable infiltration capacity
(VIC) hydrologic model
Two reservoir models are
run: ColSim, which is run on
the entire ‘perturbed’
climate record of 1916–
2002, and Genesys, which
covers a more limited
period (1930–1978), but
simulates a larger number
of generation facilities and
is used by the NWPCC.
We simply apply the
NWPCC’s forecast for
2006 bulk electricity
prices. Future electricity
prices constitute a major
source of uncertainty, but
we use this approach to
allow direct comparison
with the NWPCC results.
Pacific Northwest Hydropower:
the Northwest Power and
Conservation Council (NWPCC)
conducted an initial assessment of
potential impacts of climate
change on the hydropower
system, but these results are not
incorporated in the risk model
upon which the 2005 Plan
recommendations are based.
32 Two equilibrium scenarios (UK
Meteorological Office High Resolution
model, UKHI and Canadian Climate Centre
model, CCC) referring to years 2020, 2050
and 2100 and one transient scenario (UK
Water balance model: The
main input parameters of the
model are precipitation,
temperature, relative
humidity, sunshine duration
Reservoir model: monthly
water budget
Northern Greece, Aliakmon River,
Polyfyoto reservoir (1 of 3
multipurpose reservoirs),
minimum garantueed energy:
199.4 GWh/a, mean garantueed
9
High Resolution Transient output, UKTR)
referring to years 2032 and 2080 were
applied.
and wind speed which,
through the operation of a
number of subroutines
estimate the rain, snow,
snowmelt, snow storage,
evapotranspiration,
groundwater storage, soil
moisture and finally the
stream runoff.
energy: 515 GWh/a
33 Climate projections from five general
circulation models (GCM) for two
greenhouse gas emission scenarios and
three temporal horizons (2020, 2050 and
2080).
The hydrological regime of
the recent past and the
regimes of 30 climate
projections are considered.
For each hydrological regime, weekly reservoir operating rules
are calculated with a dynamic and stochastic optimization
model. Simulations of the water resource system with adapted
operating rules in these climate change contexts are compared
with the management of the water resource system at the
control period (1961–1990).
The Peribonka River watershed is
located in the southern center of
the province of Quebec, Canada.
The water resource is exploited
exclusively for hydro-power by Rio
Tinto Alcan, with an installed
capacity of 1165 MW. Two large
reservoirs store water (Lake-
Manouane - 2,700 hm3 and
Passes-Dangereuses - 5,200 hm3)
and they feed three power plants
laid out in series on the Peribonka
river (Chute-des- Passes, Chute-
du-Diable and Chute-a-la-Savane).
34 …are based on two global climate models:
ECHAM4/ OPYC3 (European Centre
Hamburg model 4/Ocean and isoPYCnal
coordinates model 3) and HAdAm3H (the
Hadley Centre global Atmospheric model
3H).
The simulations are carried
out with the Watershed
Simulation and Forecasting
System (WSFS), developed by
FEI on the basis of the HBV
model
Technical risk analysis: qualitative brainstorming-based risk identification methods such as
what-if analysis and focused group interviews were chosen as the basic building blocks of the
method and its development. The functional modelling method was used to support hazard
identification at the plant level. The plant was divided according to its different functions
into the energy resource area, hydropower plant area and distribution area. All the inputs of
the environmental factors as well as the inputs and outputs from the previous functional
area to the next functional area were identified. The functions were described using a box
with incoming and outgoing arrows. The functional model is therefore a simple flow diagram
of the plant. In addition to risk analysis and other relevant standards, the study comprised a
The procedure was tested at two
hydropower plants in the Kemijoki
area in Finland. The Kemijoki
hydropower company’s plants are
located along the Kemijoki River,
the largest river in Finland. The
Kemijoki River is 550 km long and
has a catchment area of about
51,000 km2 and average flow of
10
literature study, interviews, brainstorming sessions and desk work in order to design a new
risk analysis method procedure. All these research methods were used iteratively; after each
step, the developed risk analysis procedure was re-examined and improved as deemed
necessary.
about 500 m3 s21.
35 We decided to define several hypothetical
climate change scenarios. First,
temperature was assumed to remain
constant and then it was perturbed with a
uniform increase of 1 and 2°C throughout
the year. For each of these temperature
change cases, scenarios were investigated
where the historic precipitation values
were affected by the factors 0.8, 0.9, 1.0,
1.1 and 1.2. The impact of the increased
temperature on the water equivalent of
snowfall was taken into account as
follows
We developed a statistical methodology that links historic hydrogeneration values to climatic observations properly
manipulated to reflect the hydrologic cycle realistically. The first step was to develop a relationship between hydrogeneration
availability and change in climate parameters. Hydrogeneration availability is a function of streamflow, or runoff water, which
will pass through the turbines. Runoff water, in turn, is a function of precipitation, evapotranspiration and other parameters.
The Sacramento, Eel and Russian
Rivers basin, a large basin located
in northern California, with an
approximate size of 240x350km.
37 From the U.S. Department of Energy and
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM).
This study focuses on three climate
projections for the 21st century based on
a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) global
emissions scenario, evaluated with
respect to a control climate scenario
based on static 1995 emissions. Time-
varying monthly PCM (PCM is a coupled
land-atmosphere-ocean GCM that
simulates the evolution of climate and its
dependence on greenhouse gas (GHG)
concentrations) temperature and
precipitation changes were statistically
Macro- scale hydrologic
simulation model (VIC model)
ColSim explicitly simulates reservoir operations by using
naturalized inflows (observed or simulated with the VIC
model) at each river node. And alternative reservoir
operating policies for mitigating performance reductions.
The Columbia River basin (CRB)
covers portions of seven western
states and the Canadian province
of British Columbia, and has a total
drainage area about the size of the
state of Texas (Figure 1). The
water resources of the CRB have
been extensively developed over
the past 60 years for flood control,
hydropower production, irrigation
and navigation. There are 36,400
MW (average annual generation is
about 16,500 MW) of installed
hydropower generation capacity at
214 dams (federal, municipal, and
11
downscaled. For comparison with the
direct statistical downscaling approach, a
dynamical downscaling approach using a
regional climate model (RCM) was also
used to derive hydrologic model forcings
for 20- year subsets from the PCM control
climate (1995–2015) scenario and from
the three BAU climate (2040–2060)
projections.
independent) within the CRB.
38 NCAR- PCM scenarios for the 2000-2099
period were downscaled with the
multiplicative cascade ß-model
WATFLOOD hydrological model
over a control period (1979-
1999) and two future time
periods centred in 2050 and
2090
Two Alpine basins (1840 and 236
km2) in Northern Italy relevant for
irrigation water supply and water
power generation.
41+42 In the present study, the necessary RCM
statistics for the times series perturbation
are the result of the global-mean warming
- regional climate - scaling methodology
presented by Hingray et al. (2007a).
Model for the production of local scale
meteorological time series (precipitation
and temperature) based on global and
regional climate model outputs
Hydrological discharge model
and a model of glacier surface
evolution
Water management
model (40)
Hydropower management
model (41)
Swiss Alps, Case study: Mauvoisin
hydropower plant.
44 The climate-change scenario was a
regional model 'nested' within the Global
Circulation Model (GCM) developed by
the Hadley Centre, Bracknell, Berkshire.
The regional model has a resolution of 50
km and, using 1961-1990 as a
climatological baseline
A simple water-balance model Grande Dixence hydro-electric
scheme, Valais, Switzerland
12
48 HBVPINE hydrological model is a
conceptual hydrological model. The
model runs on daily values of
precipitation, mean temperature
and monthly estimates of potential
evapotranspiration.
The Telemark flood warning system was developed by
integrating a number of computer models and data
sources into one system. The objective of the system is to
simulate inflow to the lower Telemark river system
during high flow conditions and provide the user with a
tool to test operational plans for reservoirs and evaluate
flooding in rivers and reservoirs. The system contains
hydrological inflow forecasting, reservoir operation and
river routing models to predict and propagate inflow
through the water course.
Telemark river system is located in
Southern Norway within the
Telemark County. Three major
reservoirs Tinnsjøen, Heddalvatn
and Norsjøen operated in series
regulate the inflow mainly for
hydropower production and flood
mitigation purposes
13
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